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Journalism of Courage
Wars, tariffs, and ‘strongman’ leaders are reshaping the global order as we know it. Nowhere was this reality starker than at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit (August 31–September 1). At the summit, attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping championed the idea of a “multipolar” world, declaring that “the rules of a few countries must not be imposed upon others” in a thinly veiled attack on the United States.
In Washington, many see such remarks as a direct challenge to the US and part of Beijing’s bid to position China as the alternative global powerhouse. Adding to those concerns, Beijing is set to host a military parade on Wednesday featuring some of the world’s most heavily sanctioned states, often cast as anti-West: Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Back in 2024, foreign policy analysts dubbed this loose alignment of four nations an “axis of upheaval”. The US has recently clashed with at least three of the nations: a trade war with China, strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, and US President Donald Trump’s growing frustration with Russia over the Ukraine issue.
But what is the ‘axis of upheaval’, who does it include, and where does India stand?
The origins of ‘axis of upheaval’
The term first appeared in an April 2024 article on the Foreign Affairs website by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine. Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow, and Fontaine is the CEO at the Centre for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank.
The analysts argue that China, Iran, and North Korea have helped facilitate Russia’s war in Ukraine, pointing to their “deepening economic, military, political and technological ties”. The article states that the group is neither “exclusive” nor an “alliance”, but a “collection of dissatisfied states converging on a shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system”.
It added, “Their collective aim is to create an alternative to the current order, which they consider to be dominated by the United States.”
The term quickly gained traction in foreign policy circles. In July 2024, the NATO public forum held a panel discussion titled “The Axis of Upheaval”, where a NATO representative, Benedetta Berti, said: “The more these actors learn from each other, the more we have to be concerned.”
At the time, the newly-appointed British Army chief, Gen Sir Roland Walker, too, cited the “axis of upheaval” as a danger to the West, warning that the UK and its allies had to be ready to “deter or fight a war in three years”.
Interestingly, this isn’t the first time the term “axis of upheaval” has been used to warn Western authorities of potential dangers. In 2009, British-American historian Niall Ferguson warned of an “axis of upheaval”, which comprised not “hostile” countries, but those plagued with instability arising out of economic crises, internal conflict, and/or weak governance. Unlike former President George W Bush’s “axis of evil” (Iran, Iraq, North Korea), this new grouping included states such as Somalia (anarchy), Russia (aggression), and Mexico (drug wars), among others. Ferguson also cited Israeli violence in Gaza, turmoil in Afghanistan, and the India-Pakistan war scare as signifiers of the “age of upheaval”.
What we know of CRINK
In February 2025, speaking before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Kendall-Taylor emphasised that the axis of upheaval “amplifies” military capabilities of America’s “adversaries” and “dilutes” Washington’s foreign policy tools, such as sanctions and trade controls.
This nexus of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, also called “CRINK”, however, is not a formal grouping. Despite their shared anti-Western sentiments, internal conflicts complicate the dynamics.
China and Russia, for instance, share a complicated history of foes-turning-friends. It was Russia’s increasing isolation after it annexed Crimea in 2014 that deepened ties between the two nations. On Tuesday, Putin said Russia’s relationship with China was at an “unprecedentedly high level”. The two countries also inked a pact to build a massive pipeline that will send natural gas from Russia to China, as Europe looks to phase out of Russian energy imports.
China shares Russia’s criticisms of Nato expansion. However, it has maintained that its “core position” was to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, even proposing multiple peace plans that were met with lukewarm responses from both sides. Analysts argue that China would want to keep some distance from Russia’s actions in Ukraine to avoid complete abandonment by the West, crucial for trade and investment.
Iran heavily relies on China for trade amid the West’s economic sanctions. According to Reuters, China imports nearly 90 per cent of Iranian oil. Tehran also enhanced its ties with Russia after it invaded Ukraine, reportedly supplying Moscow with drones. At the SCO summit, the leaders condemned the US and Israel’s recent attacks on Iranian soil, which purportedly targeted its nuclear sites.
However, there are limits to Iran’s relations with China and Russia. A recent analysis by Time suggests that China would want to act as a peace broker in the Middle East, as a prolonged conflict could hinder its investments in the region, and its closeness to Iran could foil bilateral ties with Israel and other Gulf nations. Meanwhile, the think tank, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, states that while Russia benefits from ties with Iran, the two countries do not share a deep defence partnership.
North Korea deepened its partnership with Russia, supplying weapons and troops to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine. This was seen as Kim Jong Un’s bid to reduce dependence on his decades-old ally, China. However, it ended up straining ties between Pyongyang and Beijing, which viewed the move as a hit to its regional influence. With Kim in China for the military parade, his first international outing since 2023, he would hope to restore ties with Beijing. It’s unclear if the three leaders plan to have a trilateral meeting. Besides the optics of the leaders appearing together, the triad has not formalised any trilateral cooperation.
Where does India stand?
Modi’s visit to China was the first in seven years. He held bilateral meetings with Xi and Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit. This came against the backdrop of New Delhi’s ongoing tensions with Washington over steep tariffs. The US has charged India a 25 per cent penalty for its purchase of Russian oil on top of a 25 per cent reciprocal levy. Trump has also repeatedly criticised India’s high tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. While India was among the first countries to respond to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, trade talks have been reportedly stalled ever since the 50 per cent levy came into effect.
The shift in the US stance has pushed India to enhance ties with other allies. PM Modi’s recent tour extended cooperation with Japan. India and China have been gradually normalising their ties, and on Sunday, both sides called each other “partners, not rivals”. PM Modi also met Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit to discuss bilateral ties and the war in Ukraine.
While India shares membership with China, Russia, and Iran in nation groupings like SCO and BRICS, it has distanced itself from their anti-Western views. Officials recently told The Indian Express that India continues to engage with the US. The challenge for India is to stand firm on its sovereignty, as it has on the Russian oil issue, while maintaining ties with the US. Crucially, voices in the US, particularly the Democrats, have criticised Trump for “singling out” India in imposing secondary tariffs and “sabotaging” India-US ties.
