Why swing states have outsize importance in US elections

Why do states matter in the presidential election?

Although Americans vote for their preferred candidate, they do not directly elect the President.

Their votes matter for a body known as the Electoral College, comprising “electors” — party leaders and loyalists, activists, etc. Each state is assigned a number of electors based on its representation in the US Senate and House of Representatives. Therefore, bigger states (in terms of population) generally have more electors, while smaller states have fewer.

It is electors who cast their votes to “directly” elect the President, with each elector holding one vote. A candidate is required to win 270 of the total 538 electoral college votes to win the White House.

So what is the relevance of the general population’s participation?

Voters essentially vote to relay their choice of candidate to their state’s electors. The results of this “popular vote” are known in November itself, allowing the winning candidate’s political party to then select their electors. In December, electors from all states meet to vote for their party’s candidate, after which the election result is formally declared.

Where voting outlook stands on swing states.

What are swing states?

The majority of US states are described as being either “red” or “blue” — which means that they vote consistently for either the Republican or the Democratic candidate respectively. This electoral loyalty to one of the two major parties could be due to several reasons. (Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, (eds) Stacey Hunter Hecht and David Schultz, 2015)

It could be because one party is significantly better organised than the other in the state, which leads to strong voter identification with the first party and to the second party putting in fewer resources there. Given the second party’s lack of presence, voters may feel less inclined to register their support for it.

So, Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan won in 1980 — and as the Republican Party has grown, the Democratic Party’s local organisation has become weaker.

Second, the bulk of voters in a state may be more ideologically oriented in one way, making the state more liberal or more conservative. The state’s political history and its demographics can play a role in influencing ideology — college-educated voters are seen as being more likely to vote Democratic, for example.

Swing (or battleground or bellwether) states, by contrast, do not have a history of aligning clearly with any of the two parties, and could “flip” either way. Therefore, both campaigns focus on these states — “Candidates travel, parties spend money, and [swing states are] where the balance of power and the winner of the presidential election is really determined,” Hunter Hecht and Schultz wrote.

While swing states have been discussed for decades, they argued that the use of the term has increased since 2000, in the context of fewer competitive election races in states since then. “The roots of this may have something to do with the polarization of American politics and the changes in the political composition of the two major parties,” says the book.

How many such swing states are there in the US?

Seven states are being closely watched in this election — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. They have 19, 11, 16, 15, 6, 16, and 10 electoral votes respectively, together accounting for 93 electoral votes. Pennsylvania, with its 19 votes, is seen as holding the key to the most straightforward path to victory for both candidates.

Local political issues, unique demographics, and party campaigns make the contests in some states more competitive. As these factors are dynamic, states can shift their support from one party to another over time.

Georgia voted for the Republican candidate from 1992 to 2016, but flipped to Joe Biden in 2020. The polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, said this was due to anti-Trump sentiments, the greater acceptability of Biden among a wide range of Democratic voters, and an increasing share of non-white populations in the state in recent decades. (Generally, Asian, black and/ or hispanic voters are seen as being more likely to vote Democratic.)

Also, local leaders such as Stacey Adams “executed a specific, turnout-based strategy in Georgia for nearly a decade and has pushed for the Democratic Party to join her in implementing it,” FiveThirtyEight said.