Will Baramati be a slippery pitch for Supriya Sule in 2024 Lok Sabha polls?

The BJP along with its alliance partners—the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction)—has set an ambitious Mission 45-plus target for 2024, although the party workers are told to work to ensure victory in all the 48 Lok Sabha seats.

For the first time, the BJP is more than determined to maximise its electoral strike rate. Under the BJP Pravas campaign launched last year, the party shortlisted 144 Lok Sabha constituencies that fall in the difficult category and 16 of them are in Maharashtra.

Among these 16, Baramati was one where the party admitted special efforts were necessary to give the sitting MP, Supriya Sule of the NCP, a tough fight. The daughter of NCP president Sharad Pawar contested the Lok Sabha elections for the first time in 2009. She had inherited the seat from her father, who then moved to the neighbouring Madha Lok Sabha seat. She has never had to look back, having won the seat in 2009, 2014 and 2019.

With the split in NCP, the electoral dynamics are likely to alter. While Sule represents the Baramati Lok Sabha seat, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar represents the Baramati Assembly seat. The battle between Ajit and Sule—who are cousins—for control over the turf has become evident as they represent two ideologically different political parties.

Notwithstanding whether somebody from Ajit’s family is fielded against Sule or not, it is going to be a bitter contest in 2024.

Even before the split in the NCP, the BJP had unfolded its plans for Baramati. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was assigned the Lok Sabha constituency under the Pravas campaign. Accordingly, she embarked on a three-day tour in September 2022. A couple of months later, she visited Baramati for a second time. Though the state BJP unit was buoyed by her presence in Baramati, Sitharaman herself avoided making comments on the Pawars. Instead, she emphasised her visit was part of an exercise undertaken to strengthen the party.

State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “We will definitely strive to win all the 48 seats. The BJP along with its alliance partners is working to enhance its electoral fortunes.” In politics nothing is impossible, he added.

Whether the BJP succeeds or not to make inroads into the Pawar bastion remains to be seen. And a section within the BJP wants Sunetra Pawar, wife of Ajit Pawar, to be fielded against Supriya Sule. Nobody wants to say this on record, though.

A senior BJP functionary said, “Till 2009, we had taken for granted that Baramati was beyond our scope. With Pawar Sr in the field we never gave much thought, knowing it was futile.”

The big surprise came in 2014. Rashtriya Samaj Paksha president Mahadev Jankar contested the election against Sule and polled a sizeable 4.51 lakh votes. Sule polled 5.21 lakh votes and won. Five years later the BJP fielded Kanchan Kul against her in Baramati. While Sule polled 6.86 lakh votes, Kul got 5.30 lakh votes.

The Baramati Lok Sabha constituency comprises six Assembly segments—Daund, Indapur, Baramati, Purandar, Bhor and Khadakwasla. The party-wise breakup for these segments is as follows: BJP (2), NCP (2) and Congress (2). Rahul Kul (Daund) and Bhimrao Tapkir (Khadakwasla) are with the BJP. Ajit Pawar (Baramati) and Dattatreya Bharne (Indapur) are with the NCP, while Sanjay Jagtap (Purandar) and Sangram Thopte (Bhor) are with Congress.

In 2024 the BJP and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar will work together and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP will have to rely on Congress support to retain the edge.

Sule, who is the working president of Sharad Pawar’s party, believes people are the best judges. Responding to speculations about Sunetra Pawar being fielded against her in 2024, she said, “It is democracy… I have contested polls from Baramati thrice. Every time there is an Opposition candidate. We should concentrate on work and efforts.”

A senior NCP leader close to the Pawar family said, “In politics anything can happen. People decide whom to vote for. I believe the Baramati people have a different kind of bond with Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule. They will not break the trust.”

While conceding that Pawar Sr has an emotive link with Baramati, a minister from the Ajit faction said, “It holds true for Ajit Pawar too. Nobody can beat him when it comes to doing work or maintaining relations with ordinary people in his constituency.”

The split in the NCP has also affected the relations between the Pawar cousins. In her address at the special Parliament session on women’s reservation Bill, Sule said, “Har ghar mein aise bhai nahi hote jo behan ke kalyan dekhte hain (Not every house has a brother who takes care of his sister’s well-being).” It was made in response to Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement that “every home has a brother who strives for the welfare of his sister”.

On Tuesday Sule told the media, “Ajit Dada is my elder brother. I have never said anything against him, nor will I ever do.”

For his part, Ajit has refrained from commenting on Sule or any other family member in public.