Now, onto exit polls: A look back at how close they were in 2009, 2014, 2019
Finally, as the Lok Sabha elections draw to a close on Saturday, 43 days after the first phase on April 19, all eyes will shift to the exit polls which will start emerging soon after the voting period officially ends. Between June 1 and June 4, when the results will be declared, it will be these exit polls that will keep parties either hoping or despairing. So, how close were the exit polls in the past two general elections, 2014 and 2019, which were both won by the Narendra Modi-led BJP by huge margins? While the 2014 Lok Sabha polls were held between April 7 and May 12, with the results announced on May 16, the 2019 edition was from April 11 to May 19, and the results came out on May 23.
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As Prime Minister Narendra Modi contested his third election from the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, there were six candidates left in the race against him, including Congress state president Ajay Rai. 41 candidates initially filed their nomination papers for the Varanasi constituency, of whom one withdrew on his own. Seven candidates finally managed to get past the scrutiny process.
While caste is one of the major drivers of the electoral discourse and voting patterns in India, for several youngsters in Uttar Pradesh’s Prayagraj district unemployment and the Agnipath recruitment scheme are at the top of their agenda. This is apparent in the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat, which comprises five of the 12 Assembly segments in Prayagraj district: Allahabad North, Allahabad West, Soraon, Phaphamau, and Phulpur.
Confident of retaining its core Muslim-Yadav voter base and seeking to make inroads into the votes of non-Yadav OBCs, who are seen to be consolidated in favour of the BJP, the Samajwadi Party (SP) fielded only five candidates from the Yadav community in the 62 seats it contested in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections. Incidentally, all five are from party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: BJP likely to win up to 67 seats
The News18 Mega Exit poll has predicted 64-67 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh.
The survey has also predicted 68-71 seats out of the total 80 for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while the Opposition’s INDIA bloc is likely to win nine to 12 seats.
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Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: NDA projected to win 69 seats, INDIA bloc likely to win 11, says India News-D Dynamic poll survey
As voting in the 18th Lok Sabha elections comes to an end, all eyes are now on the exit poll results. According to Republic-PMarq, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to win 69 seats out of the total 80, while the Opposition INDIA bloc is expected to win 8. The India News-D Dynamic survey also predicts 69 seats for NDA and 11 for INDIA. Meanwhile, the News Nation has predicted 67 seats for NDA and 13 seats for INDIA.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: How is Maneka Gandhi faring in Sultanpur?
Maneka Gandhi, who is fighting for her ninth term as a Lok Sabha MP, is facing one of the most crucial fights of her political career.
Pushed to the margins of the BJP, with her son Varun Gandhi denied a ticket, Maneka must win Sultanpur to sustain her political legacy.
Speaking to The Indian Express, Maneka said, "I have not made it (the Ram Temple) an issue here... At the end of the day, people just want their problems to be looked at and want a personal relationship (with their representative). Over the last five years, I have made such personal relationships with visits to every village… There are just local issues here… I work for everybody.”'
Maneka is facing OBC rivals from both the main fronts. While the Congress-Samajwadi Party candidate is Ram Bhual Nishad – the Nishads number about 2.5 lakh in the seat – the BSP has fielded Uday Raj Verma, a Kurmi.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: In first 26 seats, BJP likely to win 22-25, says News18 pollster
According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win 22-25 seats out of the 26 seats that went to polls in the first three phases of voting in Uttar Pradesh.
The Opposition's INDIA bloc is likely to win three-six seats for these 26.
Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. It is one of the three states that saw polling in all seven phases of the Lok Sabha elections, along with Bihar and West Bengal.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: Who is Dinesh Singh, BJP's candidate against Rahul Gandhi in Rae Bareli?
Dinesh Singh, a three-time MLC in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council and the state's horticulture minister, has been fielded by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the second time in the Rae Bareli constituency.
In 2019, he gave Sonia Gandhi a strong fight, reducing her victory margin from 3.52 lakh votes in 2014 to 1.67 lakh. Singh was earlier with the Congres.
Over the years, Singh and his family have developed a strong base in Rae Bareli, where his brother Rakesh Pratap Singh was once the MLA while other relatives were chairpersons of the Zilla Panchayat. During his stint with the Congress, Singh was elected MLC in 2010 and again in 2016.
Then in 2018, months before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he left the Congress to join the BJP that fielded him against Sonia. While the former Congress president was the only party candidate to win from UP, Singh gave her a strong fight and was able to reduce her victory margin drastically, putting in the best-ever performance by a BJP candidate from the constituency.
There has been some resentment against Singh within the BJP, a reason why he was not confident of getting the ticket this year.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: Who are the non-Congress MPs who have represented Rae Bareli in Lok Sabha?
Raj Narain in 1977: The 1977 Lok Sabha elections, held after 21 oppressive months of Emergency, saw Raj Narain, contesting on a Bhartiya Lok Dal (BLD) ticket, defeat Indira Gandhi by a margin of 55,202 votes in Rae Bareli. This was the first time a non-Congress candidate had won from the constituency.
Ashok Singh in 1996 and 1998: In the 1996 Lok Sabha polls, Bharatiya Janata Party’s Ashok Singh won the election, winning over 1.6 lakh votes. Congress, which had fielded Vikram Kaul, Sheila’s son, stood fourth, winning under 26,000 votes, behind both Janata Dal candidate also named Ashok Singh, and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Babulal Lodhi. He won again in 1998, garnering almost 2.4 lakh votes. This time, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party candidates came second and third respectively, with Congress’ Deepa Kaul, coming a distant fourth.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: NDA projected to win 69 seats, INDIA bloc to bag 8, says Republic-PMarq pollster
As voting in the 18th Lok Sabha elections comes to an end, all eyes are now on the exit poll results. According to Republic-PMarq, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to win 69-74 seats out of the total 80, while the Opposition INDIA bloc is expected to win 6-11.
The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to not win a single seat this time.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: What significance does the Rae Bareli seat hold?
Since India’s first election in 1952, Congress has held the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh for 66 of 72 years. This time, Rahul Gandhi is contesting from the seat, taking over from his mother Sonia, who became a Rajya Sabha MP earlier this year. The contest will also determine Congress's future in the Hindi heartland, since the constituency has been a bastion of the Congress party, and the Gandhi-Nehru family for decades.
The first person from the family to win the constituency in 1952 was Feroze Gandhi, son-in-law of Jawaharlal Nehru and husband of Indira Gandhi. He also repeated the feat in the second elections of 1957.
In 1971, Indira Gandhi won over 66% of the votes in the constituency, and defeating Samyukt Socialist Party (SSP) candidate Raj Narain by a margin of over 1.1 lakh votes. But this victory did not come without controversy.
After his loss, Raj Narain filed a petition before the Allahabad High Court accusing Indira of having used the government machinery to gain an unfair advantage in the election.
On June 12, 1975 Justice Jagmohanlal Sinha found Indira guilty of electoral malpractices, and declared Raj Narain winner from Rae Bareli. On June 24, the Supreme Court upheld the High Court judgement, but allowed Indira to continue as prime minister pending the resolution of her appeal. This paved the way for Gandhi declaring Emergency on the midnight of June 25/26.
Since 2004, Indira's daughter-in-law Sonia represented the constituency.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: How did Jatavs vote in Uttar Pradesh?
The Bahujan Samaj Party and Mayawati may be seen as an also-ran in the Lok Sabha elections, with the party’s vote share and seats on the decline. However, among her Jatav community, Mayawati hasn’t lost her hold.
One of the main campaign themes of allies Congress and Samajwadi Party, both of whom are part of the INDIA bloc, directed essentially at Dalits and OBCs, is that in its third term in power, the Narendra Modi-led government would “change the Constitution” and “end reservations”.
With Mayawati refusing to join the INDIA bloc, they also accuse the BSP of being a B-team of the BJP.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: Why was comedian Shyam Rangeela's nomination rejected in Varanasi?
Comedian Shyam Rangeela, who had been planning on contesting as an Independent candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency, had his nomination rejected.
The reason? Failure to take the oath.
Speaking to The Indian Express, Rangeela, 29, said, “My nomination has been rejected…They don’t want me to contest from here. They took my nomination papers after 3 pm on Tuesday (the last day for filing nomination), while I was alone. I was a first-timer and didn’t know the process. No one told me that I was to take an oath. Now, they are saying that because I did not take an oath, my papers were rejected."
In a video message on X, Rangeela alleged that “the Election Commission has made elections in Varanasi a game.” “Today, my nomination was rejected. If you were to not clear it, why did you accept it? We submitted all documents… Today, the DM told me that there was some issue with my documents and that I didn’t take the oath… They didn’t let the lawyers go in with me and called me alone. Now, the reason they gave is that I didn’t take an oath and that it was on me to take an oath. I said you didn’t ask me to, and they responded it isn’t their work. The second thing is that sir was saying that on May 14, I submitted the form at 2.58 pm, and that if there was some issue with it, I would have had time till 3 pm. I have been trying here since May 10 with several others… My friend was beaten up. Modiji may act and cry, but I don’t want to cry here.”
UP Exit Poll Results Live: Who is Ajay Rai, Congress candidate contesting against PM Modi in Varanasi?
Congress's Uttar Pradesh chief Ajay Rai, 53, is contesting as the INDIA bloc candidate in Varanasi.
An old leader from the area, Rai has a strongman image and several cases against him in the state.
While he also contested and lost by big margins in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 elections from Varanasi, he remains the most formidable challenger to Modi in the race. In 2009, Rai contested on a Samajwadi Party ticket, and in 2014 and 2019, on a Congress ticket. He finished third each time.
Rai is also a five-time MLA, four times from Kolasla seat and once from Pindra. He won from Kolasla thrice on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) symbol, and once as an Independent. He was the Congress MLA from the Pindra Assembly seat in Varanasi from 2012 to 2017.
Rai has moveable assets worth Rs 6.66 lakh and immoveable assets worth Rs 1.25 crore. He also has 18 cases against him.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: What is the ground situation in Phulpur Lok Sabha seat?
Phulpur is a high-profile Lok Sabha constituency that has been represented by two former Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru and V P Singh.
In recent years, among those who have represented it in the recent past are gangster Atiq Ahmed (won in 2004 on a Samajwadi Party ticket), who was shot dead last year while being taken to a court-mandated medical check-up, and current Uttar Pradesh Deputy CM Keshav Maurya who won in 2014.
The constituency comprises five of the 12 Assembly segments in Prayagraj district: Allahabad North, Allahabad West, Soraon, Phaphamau, and Phulpur.
The seat is currently represented by BJP’s Kesari Devi Patel, who won by 1.71 lakh votes. However, BJP has dropped her and fielded Phulpur MLA Praveen Patel who is from the dominant Kurmi community, which accounts for approximately 3 lakh votes. To counter this, the SP has fielded Amarnath Singh Maurya from the Maurya community, and the BSP’s Jagannath Pal is from the shepherd community. All three candidates are OBCs, giving the decisive vote to upper castes such as Brahmins, Thakurs, and Kayasthas. This gives the BJP the edge as far as caste combinations are concerned.
However, the Opposition is hoping that caste concerns will be overshadowed by issues related to the 35,000 students at various university-college campuses and others who come to prepare for competitive exams in Prayagraj, from different corners of Uttar Pradesh. While several are voters in Phulpur, many, even if they are not, are important in the sense that the issues that concern them may end up determining the poll narrative in their hometowns or villages.
UP Exit Poll Results Live: Is there a direct contest between BJP and Congress in Uttar Pradesh?
The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are in a direct fight in at least seven of the 17 seats in which the former is contesting in Uttar Pradesh.
Congress insiders told The Indian Express that with the Samajwadi Party's help, there is hope that these constituencies will translate into close contests.
The Congress and SP are both part of the INDIA bloc. In the initial phases of campaigning, SP chief and former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and Congress MP Rahul Gandhi addressed just one joint meeting in support of a Congress candidate — Danish Ali in Amroha — as the election moved towards east UP, Akhilesh addressed 10 rallies for Congress candidates.
“The SP alliance this time has given us additional push in many seats. Apart from Rae Bareli and Amethi, these include seats such as Barabanki, Saharanpur, Fatehpur Sikri, Sitapur, and Kanpur,” a UP Congress leader said.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll Results Live: What about the seats BJP lost in 2019?
Out of the seven constituencies that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it is facing a tough contest in 2: Ghosi and Ghazipur.
In both these seats, the death of gangster-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari plays a crucial role, which may end up working in favour of the Opposition's INDIA bloc. The previous elections saw Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party's victories in both seats.
Mukhtar’s brother and sitting MP Afzal Ansari is contesting from Ghazipur on an SP ticket while Rajiv Rai is contesting on the SP symbol from Ghosi against NDA ally and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar’s son Arvind.
Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls Live: What is the situation for BJP in Allahabad?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) replaced incumbent MP Rita Bahuguna Joshi with senior leader Kesarinath Tripathi's son Neeraj, who was a government lawyer, who is now making his electoral debut.
In contrast, former Samajwadi Party MLA Ujjawal Raman, son of party co-founder Rewati Raman Singh, has contested on a Congress ticket. The Opposition INDIA bloc is hoping that the consolidated votes of Muslims, OBCs, including Yadavs and Pals, and Dalits will be enough to cancel out the BJP’s support among Brahmins and other upper castes.
What is the situation in Ayodhya?
In Ayodhya, there has been some discontent against two-time Faizabad MP Lallu Singh, who belongs to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Reason? The demolition of homes and shops because of the widening of roads and beautification projects underway in the city.
In contrast, Awadhesh Prasad, the Samajwadi Party and INDIA bloc candidate, who is from the Dalit community, is known for being accessible to people.
These factors have combined to put the BJP in a somewhat uneasy spot despite the Ram Temple factor.
In which constituencies of UP does NDA face a close fight from the INDIA bloc parties?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is facing a tough fight from the INDIA bloc parties in at least 20 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh.
These are: Ayodhya, Chandauli, Bansgaon, Kheri, Pratapgarh, Kairana, Aligarh, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Pilibhit, Mohanlalganj, Amethi, Kannauj, Kaushambi, Allahabad, Barabanki, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Azamgarh, and Badaun.
Out of these, the NDA has dropped incumbent MPs and fielded fresh candidates in six seats: Pilibhit, Barabanki, Firozabad, Allahabad, Robertsganj, and Badaun.
Speaking to The Indian Express, state BJP spokesperson Rakesh Tripathi said, “We have a close fight in around 11 seats such as Kannauj, Azamgarh, Badaun, Ghazipur, and Ghosi, but we will come out victorious. Three to four rounds of counting (on results day) will clear the picture.”
What were the exit poll results for Uttar Pradesh in 2019?
In 2019, almost all the agencies conducting the exit polls gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) gave seats in the range of 58-62. This turned out to be accurate, as NDA ended up winning 62 seats in total.
This was nine less than what they had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, however, it was enough to help the alliance form the government at the Centre.
The predictions for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Mahagathbandhan comprising of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party were also accurate, as the two alliances ended up winning one (Rae Bareli) and 15 seats respectively.
When will exit poll results for Uttar Pradesh be out?
Following the Election Commission guidelines, the exit polls will commence at 6:30 pm, 30 minutes after the conclusion of voting today.
The EC has mandated agencies conducting these polls to wait until polling has been completed in all phases. This is to avoid influencing voters who are yet to vote.
The issue of when exit polls should be allowed to be published has gone to the Supreme Court thrice in various forms.
Why do exit polls matter
Exit polls indicate the way people voted in any given election.
The results of these polls are arrived at on the basis of interviews with voters right after they exit the polling stations. Apart from this, other calculations related to voter data are also considered.
In Indian political discourse, a significant amount of importance is attached to these results-- in fact, many Indians give them the same importance as they do to the actual results.
Why is Uttar Pradesh significant?
Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 representatives to the Lok Sabha, is considered one of the most decisive factors in deciding which party or coalition will form the government at the Centre. This trend started from the first Lok Sabha elections in 1952 and is still relevant.
Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha Exit Poll Live Updates
As voting in the 18th Lok Sabha elections comes to an end, all eyes are now on the exit poll results.
Follow us as we bring you the latest updates on what the exit polls say about Uttar Pradesh!