BJP slips to fifth in Tarn Taran bypoll, loses deposit despite high-powered campaign

“It is a panthic seat and we had no dedicated BJP team in the area, but we pulled on. Our larger target is the 2027 polls. In the bypoll, we wanted to see how much we gain and the number of votes we can win,” a senior BJP leader said.

State general secretary Anil Sarin had a more realistic picture to paint. “No doubt the vote share has increased manifold compared to 2022, but yes, the result is below expectations and I don’t deny that the response we got from the constituency couldn’t be converted into votes. We will self-introspect after the complete poll result declaration. However, I must say that we received wide acceptance in villages and towns in this pure panthic seat, while in 2022 it was difficult to even campaign. We got love and affection from voters and surely will try to convert it into votes in 2027,” he said.

The BJP had contested the seat alone for the first time after the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) snapped ties with the NDA over the now-repealed farm laws. Its candidate Navreet Singh Shafipura had then secured only 1,176 votes and finished sixth.

The Tarn Taran result also breaks a pattern seen in the nine bypolls held since June 2022, where the BJP had led over the SAD. However, the BJP can draw hope from the fact that its vote share is on the rise. In 2022, the BJP, then contesting alongside the Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) led by Captain Amarinder Singh and SAD (Sanyukt), secured just 6.6% votes individually. Since then, PLC has merged with the BJP and SAD (Sanyukt) has dissolved, leaving the BJP to contest solo with greater confidence.

However, BJP insiders concede that vote-share growth is not enough. After the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the BJP doubled its vote share to 18.5% from 9.63% in 2019 but failed to win a single seat, similar concerns had emerged. The party had won two seats in 2019 in alliance with SAD.

Previous bypolls reflect the same struggle. In Sangrur (June 2022), BJP finished fourth, ahead of SAD. In the May 2023 Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll, it again came fourth with 15.18% vote share. In June 2024, the party improved to 21.64% in Jalandhar and finished second, but could not convert it into a win. In the July 2024 Jalandhar West bypoll, triggered by AAP MLA Sheetal Angural’s defection to the BJP, the party got 18.94% and finished second.

In November 2024, during four Assembly bypolls (Gidderbaha, Chabbewal, Dera Baba Nanak and Barnala), SAD had skipped the contest due to Sukhbir Singh Badal being declared tankhiya by the Akal Takht. BJP contested all four, finishing third in each and losing deposits in three seats except Barnala. Even prominent leaders could not revive fortunes: former Finance Minister Manpreet Singh Badal polled only 12,174 votes in Gidderbaha; Ravi Karan Kahlon secured merely 6,505 in Dera Baba Nanak; and four-time MLA Sohan Singh Thandal got just 8,692 votes from Chabbewal. Only Kewal Singh Dhillon saved his deposit in Barnala. Thandal later returned to SAD in June during the Ludhiana West campaign.

The message from Tarn Taran, insiders say, is unmistakable: BJP needs introspection, strategic clarity and structural overhaul. “Coming second or third won’t cut it anymore. This time it is loss of security deposit as well,” a senior leader admitted, adding that the groundwork for 2027 must begin immediately. While AAP defeated SAD,  SAD (Waris Punjab De) candidate Mandeep Singh at number 3 followed by Congress with BJP’s Harjeet Singh Sandhu at number five.

“Tarn Taran poll result indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party needs to do more work to transform the development agenda into a people’s agenda and to ensure that information about the central government’s schemes for the poor reaches every single person. We will carry out this work with even greater intensity in the times to come,” said state president Sunil Jakhar on X..

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