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Journalism of Courage
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) vote share in the 2024 general election contracted in most of the states and union territories (UTs) that had relatively low rates of growth in per capita income since the previous Lok Sabha polls in 2019, shows an analysis of Election Commission of India (ECI) data and per capita net state domestic product (NSDP) data from states. NSDP per capita is taken as the per capita income of a state and is counted among states’ key economic indicators.
Of the 12 states and UTs where per capita NSDP grew by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of up to 2 per cent, and where the BJP contested in the recently-concluded Lok Sabha elections, the party’s vote share shrunk in nine. These nine states and UTs include Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, and Chandigarh. Kerala, Sikkim, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands were the outliers to the trend.
For the purpose of this analysis, the CAGR of per capita NSDP was divided in three segments: low (up to 2 per cent), medium (2.1-4.0 per cent), and high (over 4 per cent). Among all states and UTs, the overall range of per capita NSDP CAGR ranged up to 6.1 per cent. CAGR was considered over absolute growth as per capita NSDP data for some states was not updated for 2023-24 (FY24) and was available either till FY23 or FY22. The base year for the comparison was taken as FY19. A few UTs that do not maintain per capita NSDP data were not considered.
While the data does suggest a correlation between per capita state income and the BJP’s vote share among most of the low-growth states, the trend is not as stark when it comes to states and UTs in the middle- and high-growth segments.
It is worth noting that like most economic indicators, per capita incomes and their growth rates vary across states and are contingent upon a number of factors and conditions. Also, election outcomes depend on a host of factors — many of which are not directly linked to the economy — and their various permutations and combinations.
Among the nine states with a per capita NSDP growth rate of over 4 per cent, the BJP registered an expansion in vote share from 2019 levels in five — Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu. Four states — Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Arunachal Pradesh, saw a contraction in the BJP’s vote share despite a relatively high rate of growth in their per capita incomes.
Similarly, the BJP’s vote share expanded in five of the nine states and UTs with per capita NSDP growth rate of 2.1 per cent to 4 per cent. These five states included Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Telangana, Tripura, and Mizoram. The four where the BJP saw a decline in vote share were Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir.
