What happened in the 2018 elections, when the last polls were held?

The 2018 Assembly election results did not give any party a clear majority. After the results, the BJP was called to form the government as the single-largest party, with 104 MLAs in a House of 224. However, the Congress and JD(S) quickly came together and assembled 116 names (Congress 76, JD-S 37 and three independents) to remove it. Within a year though, the Congress-JD(S) had been toppled when 17 of their MLAs resigned from the Assembly — after being holed up in a resort in Mumbai leading up to this — and switched sides to the BJP. Karnataka BJP stalwart BS Yediyurappa became the chief minister but resigned on July 26, 2021. He was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai, who, like Yediyurappa, hails from the Lingayat community.

What is the main challenge for the BJP in Karnataka?

In both its terms in government (2008-13 and 2019 to date), the BJP did not win a clear majority in Karnataka, the only state it is in power in south India. But here is perhaps the biggest roadblock: Karnataka has never voted an incumbent back to power in 40 years.

What are some of the key conversations playing out ahead of the Karnataka polls?

Karnataka is by and large governed by specific, local factors. Hence, its caste-matrix and regional specificities have dominated the conversation at the time of the candidate selection and will likely do so going forward.

Who are the big players in Karnataka?

Naturally, the BJP, whose core base is said to be among the dominant Lingayat community. The Congress has a strong local cadre, with bastions across the state. Over the years, it has also found the backing from the SCs and STs in the state (Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge is a tall Dalit Congress leader from the state). The Janata Dal (Secular) – the party of former prime minister Deve Gowda – has an influence in the old Mysuru region in the state's South. It is considered that the JD(S)'s best bet is another fractured verdict like in 2004 and 2018, which would place it - like before - in the kingmaker’s seat.

How important are the Lingayats?

At nearly 17 per cent of the population, Lingayats are believed to be the state’s single largest community and reside mostly in North and Central Karnataka districts. Until the 1990s, the Lingayats, followers of Basavanna, a social reformer, largely voted for the Congress. In 1989, it formed the government in the state with the largest majority ever, 179 out of the 224 seats in the Assembly, because of the Lingayat votes mobilised by Veerendra Patil. Then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s dismissal of Patil in 1990 is said to have moved the Lingayats away from the Congress towards the BJP. This also led to the rise of BS Yediyurappa as the community’s face in the BJP. He remains its most popular leader, despite alleged attempts to sideline him. Congress, too, is trying hard to woo the Lingayat community with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi leading the outreach by visiting important pilgrimage sites for Lingayats, prominent mutts and more recently participating in Basava Jayanti celebrations.

What about the Vokkaligas?

Said to be the second-largest community in the state, they have historically voted either for the JD(S) or Congress. Former Prime Minister Deve Gowda and Karnataka Congress president DK Shivakumar are from the community. Several constituencies of the Vokkaliga heartland are bastions for the JD(S) and Congress, and BJP has stepped up its efforts to make inroads in the region during the upcoming election.

How have different parts of Karnataka voted over the years?

Kalyana Karnataka: Earlier called Hyderabad Karnataka, this part has remained a Congress stronghold. The party is working on improving its tally there this time, and is hoping the election of Kharge — who hails from the region — as the AICC president will generate a “wave” to further boost its prospects. Analysis of results across 40 constituencies of the region shows the Congress has won more than 50 per cent of these in the last two elections, while the BJP has lost some ground it had gained in the 2008 polls. Coastal Karnataka: The BJP produced a stirring performance in the coastal regions of Karnataka in 2018, winning 18 out of a total of 21 seats. It has been a saffron party stronghold. While the Congress could only manage to secure three seats, down from 13, JD(S) got zero. Bombay Karnataka: In 2018, the BJP won 30 out of the 50 seats here, in a reiterating signal of its support from the Lingayats. The Congress got 17 seats. Central Karnataka: It comprises a total of 32 constituencies and has kept offering rich dividends to the BJP over the last decade and a half. Save for the 2013 Assembly polls, the BJP has bagged the most seats in the region since 2008. In 2018, the BJP won 21 of the seats, the Congress seven and the JD(S) won four. Old Mysuru: This region has so far only seen close contests between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular). When Union Minister Amit Shah launched the BJP’s Karnataka election campaign last December from Mandya in the southern part of the state, his underlying message for party workers was clear: make further inroads here. Across all of the state’s Assembly polls, the BJP has struggled to cross the double-digit mark in the 48 constituencies in the region’s eight districts. South Karnataka is dominated by the Vokkaliga community that has largely favoured either the JD(S) or the Congress over the years.

What about Bengaluru? Who performs well in the city?

The Congress has been faring better than the BJP in the Bengaluru Urban district, which comprises 28 seats, in the last two Assembly polls. But the 2017 defections that precipitated the fall of the JD(S) and Congress coalition government give the BJP a slight edge in the urban hub.

Are we looking at any Karnataka CM faces?

The BJP has so far not declared a CM face, just as the Congress. In Congress, though, the race is largely considered to be between Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah — who both have a strong group of loyalist party leaders rallying behind them.

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ARARIA Abidur Rahman

FORBESGANJ Vidya Sagar Keshari

JOKIHAT Shahnawaz

NARPATGANJ Jai Prakash Yadav

RANIGANJ (SC) Achmit Rishidev

SIKTI Vijay Kumar Mandal

ARWAL Maha Nand Singh

KURTHA Bagi Kumar Verma

AURANGABAD Anand Shankar Singh

GOH Bhim Kumar Singh

KUTUMBA (SC) Rajesh Kumar

NABINAGAR Vijay Kumar Singh Alias Dabloo Singh

OBRA Rishi Kumar

RAFIGANJ Mohammad Nehaluddin

AMARPUR Jayant Raj

BANKA Ram Narayan Mandal

BELHAR Manoj Yadav

DHORAIYA (SC) Bhudeo Choudhary

KATORIA (ST) Dr. Nikki Hembrom

BACHHWARA Surendra Mehata

BAKHRI (SC) Suryakant Paswan

BEGUSARAI Kundan Kumar

CHERIA - BARIARPUR Raj Vanshi Mahto

MATIHANI Raj Kumar Singh

SAHEBPUR KAMAL Satanand Sambuddha Alias Lalan

TEGHRA Ram Ratan Singh

BHAGALPUR Ajit Sharma

BIHPUR Kumar Shailendra

GOPALPUR Narendra Kumar Niraj

KAHALGAON Pawan Kumar Yadav

NATHNAGAR Ali Ashraf Siddiqui

PIRPAINTI (SC) Lalan Kumar

SULTANGANJ Lalit Narayan Mandal

AGIAON (SC) Manoj Manzil

ARRAH Amrendra Pratap Singh

BARHARA Raghvendra Pratap Singh

JAGDISHPUR Ram Vishun Singh

SANDESH Kiran Devi

SHAHPUR Rahul Tiwari

TARARI Sudama Prasad S/O Ganga Dayal Sah

BRAHAMPUR Shambhu Nath Yadav

BUXAR Sanjay Kumar Tiwari

DUMRAON Ajit Kumar Singh

RAJPUR (SC) Vishwanath Ram

ALINAGAR Mishri Lal Yadav

BAHADURPUR Madan Sahni

BENIPUR Binay Kumar Choudhary

DARBHANGA Sanjay Saraogi

DARBHANGA RURAL Lalit Kumar Yadav

GAURA BAURAM Swarna Singh

HAYAGHAT Ram Chandra Prasad

JALE Jibesh Kumar

KEOTI Murari Mohan Jha

KUSHESHWAR ASTHAN (SC) Shashi Bhushan Hajari

ATRI Ajay Yadav

BARACHATTI (SC) Jyoti Devi

BELAGANJ Surendra Prasad Yadav

BODH GAYA (SC) Kumar Sarvjeet

GAYA TOWN Prem Kumar

GURUA Vinay Kumar

IMAMGANJ (SC) Jitan Ram Manjhi

SHERGHATI Manju Agrawal

TIKARI Anil Kumar

WAZIRGANJ Birendra Singh

BAIKUNTHPUR Prem Shankar Prasad

BARAULI Rampravesh Rai

BHORE (SC) Sunil Kumar

GOPALGANJ Subash Singh

HATHUA Rajesh Kumar Singh

KUCHAIKOTE Amrendra Kumar Pandey

GHOSI Ram Bali Singh Yadav

JEHANABAD Kumar Krishna Mohan Alias Suday Yadav

MAKHDUMPUR (SC) Satish Kumar

CHAKAI Sumit Kumar Singh

JAMUI Shreyasi Singh

JHAJHA Damodar Rawat

SIKANDRA (SC) Prafull Kumar Manjhi

BHABUA Bharat Bind

CHAINPUR Mohd. Zama Khan

MOHANIA (SC) Sangita Kumari

RAMGARH Sudhakar Singh

BALRAMPUR Mahboob Alam

BARARI Bijay Singh

KADWA Shakeel Ahmad Khan

KATIHAR Tarkishore Prasad

KORHA (SC) Kavita Devi

MANIHARI (ST) Manohar Prasad Singh

PRANPUR Nisha Singh

ALAULI (SC) Ramvriksh Sada

BELDAUR Panna Lal Singh Patel

KHAGARIA Chhatrapati Yadav

PARBATTA Doctor Sanjeev Kumar

BAHADURGANJ Mohammad Anzar Nayeemi

KISHANGANJ Ijaharul Husain

KOCHADHAMAN Muhammed Izhar Asfi

THAKURGANJ Saud Alam

LAKHISARAI Vijay Kumar Sinha

SURYAGARHA Prahlad Yadav

ALAMNAGAR Narendra Narayan Yadav

BIHARIGANJ Niranjan Kumar Mehta

MADHEPURA Chandra Shekhar

SINGHESHWAR (SC) Chandrahas Chaupal

BABUBARHI Mina Kumari

BENIPATTI Vinod Narayan Jha

BISFI Haribhushan Thakur

HARLAKHI Sudhanshu Shekhar

JHANJHARPUR Nitish Mishra

KHAJAULI Arun Shankar Prasad

LAUKAHA Bharat Bhushan Mandal

MADHUBANI Samir Kumar Mahaseth

PHULPARAS Sheela Kumari

RAJNAGAR (SC) Dr. Ramprit Paswan

JAMALPUR Ajay Kumar Singh

MUNGER Pranav Kumar

TARAPUR Mewa Lal Choudhary

AURAI RAM SURAT KUMAR

BARURAJ Arun Kumar Singh

BOCHAHAN (SC) Musafir Paswan

GAIGHAT Niranjan Roy

KANTI Mohammad Israil Mansuri

KURHANI Anil Kumar Sahani

MINAPUR Rajeev Kumar

MUZAFFARPUR Bijendra Chaudhary

PAROO Ashok Kumar Singh

SAHEBGANJ Raju Kumar Singh

SAKRA (SC) Ashok Kumar Chodhary

ASTHAWAN Jitendra Kumar

BIHARSHARIF Dr. Sunil Kumar

HARNAUT Hari Narayan Singh

HILSA Krishnamurari Sharan Alias Prem Mukhiya

ISLAMPUR Rakesh Kumar Roushan

NALANDA Shrawon Kumar

RAJGIR (SC) Kaushal Kishore

GOBINDPUR Md Kamran

HISUA Nitu Kumari

NAWADA Vibha Devi

RAJAULI (SC) Prakash Veer

WARSALIGANJ Aruna Devi

BAGAHA Ram Singh

BETTIAH Renu Devi

CHANPATIA Umakant Singh

LAURIYA Vinay Bihari

NARKATIAGANJ Rashmi Varma

NAUTAN Narayan Prasad

RAMNAGAR (SC) Bhagirathi Devi

SIKTA Birendra Prasad Gupta

VALMIKI NAGAR Dhirendra Pratap Singh Alias Rinku Singh

BAKHTIARPUR Aniruddh Kumar

BANKIPUR Nitin Nabin

BARH Gyanendra Kumar Singh

BIKRAM Siddharth Saurav

DANAPUR Rit Lal Ray

DIGHA Sanjiv Chaurasia

FATUHA Dr. Ramanand Yadav

KUMHRAR Arun Kumar Sinha

MANER Bhai Virendra

MASAURHI (SC) Rekha Devi

MOKAMA Anant Kumar Singh

PALIGANJ Sandeep Saurav

PATNA SAHIB Nand Kishore Yadav

PHULWARI (SC) Gopal Ravidas

AMOUR Akhtarul Iman

BAISI Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad

BANMANKHI (SC) Krishna Kumar Rishi

DHAMDAHA Leshi Singh

KASBA Md. Afaque Alam

PURNIA Vijay Kumar Khemka

RUPAULI Bima Bharti

CHIRAIA Lal Babu Prasad Gupta

DHAKA Pawan Kumar Jaiswal

GOVINDGANJ Sunil Mani Tiwari

HARSIDHI (SC) Krishnanandan Paswan

KALYANPUR Manoj Kumar Yadav

KESARIA Shalini Mishra

MADHUBAN Rana Randhir

MOTIHARI Pramod Kumar

NARKATIA Shamim Ahmad

PIPRA Shyambabu Prasad Yadav

RAXAUL Pramod Kumar Sinha

SUGAULI Er. Shashi Bhushan Singh

CHENARI (SC) Murari Prasad Gautam

DEHRI Phate Bahadur Singh

DINARA Vijay Kumar Mandal

KARAKAT Arun Singh

KARGAHAR Santosh Kumar Mishra

NOKHA Anita Devi

SASARAM Rajesh Kumar Gupta

MAHISHI Gunjeshwar Sah

SAHARSA Alok Ranjan

SIMRI BAKHTIARPUR Yusuf Salahuddin

SONBARSHA (SC) Ratnesh Sada

BIBHUTIPUR Ajay Kumar

HASANPUR Tej Pratap Yadav

MOHIUDDINNAGAR Rajesh Kumar Singh

MORWA Ranvijay Sahu

ROSERA (SC) Birendra Kumar

SAMASTIPUR Akhtarul Islam Shahin

SARAIRANJAN Vijay Kumar Choudhary

UJIARPUR Alok Kumar Mehta

WARISNAGAR Ashok Kumar

AMNOUR Krishan Kumar Mantoo

BANIAPUR Kedar Nath Singh

CHAPRA Dr. C. N. Gupta

EKMA Srikant Yadav

GARKHA (SC) Surendra Ram

MANJHI Dr. Satyendra Yadav

MARHAURA Jitendra Kumar Ray

PARSA Chhote Lal Ray

SONEPUR Dr. Ramanuj Prasad

TARAIYA Janak Singh

BARBIGHA Sudarshan Kumar

SHEIKHPURA Vijay Kumar

SHEOHAR Chetan Anand

BAJPATTI Mukesh Kumar Yadav

BATHNAHA (SC) Anil Kumar

BELSAND Sanjay Kumar Gupta

PARIHAR Gaytri Devi

RIGA Moti Lal Prasad

RUNNISAIDPUR Pankaj Kumar Mishra

SITAMARHI Mithilesh Kumar

SURSAND Dilip Ray

BARHARIA Bachcha Pandey

DARAULI (SC) Satyadeo Ram

DARAUNDA Karnjeet Singh Alias Vyas Singh

GORIAKOTHI Devesh Kant Singh

MAHARAJGANJ Vijay Shanker Dubey

RAGHUNATHPUR Harishankar Yadav

SIWAN Awadh Bihari Chaudhary

ZIRADEI Amarjeet Kushwaha

CHHATAPUR Neeraj Kumar Singh

NIRMALI Aniruddha Prasad Yadav

SUPAUL Bijendra Prasad Yadav

TRIVENIGANJ (SC) Veena Bharti

HAJIPUR Awdhesh Singh

LALGANJ Sanjay Kumar Singh

MAHNAR Bina Singh

MAHUA Mukesh Kumar Raushan

PATEPUR (SC) Lakhendra Kumar Raushan

RAGHOPUR ( VAISHALI ) Tejashwi Prasad Yadav

RAJA PAKAR (SC) Pratima Kumari

VAISHALI Siddharth Patel

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