Experts see little hope in Ukraine-Russia talks

Discussing the issue off-record, these experts and officials said that there are several problems with the ongoing negotiations from both Russian and Ukrainian sides.

Ukraine has proposed to Russia that it will be willing to let go off its aspirations to join the NATO and opt for neutrality in lieu of security guarantees from other countries. But many experts believe that this is not going to work out.

Russia, America and the UK had signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, providing security assurances to Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, convincing them to bring them under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Ukraine had given up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal for security assurances from the signatories. However, experts said that, while the assurances were not guarantees and may not have had been binding, but the ongoing war has demonstrated that no other country, including the US, is willing to send its troops to help Ukraine as they do not want to risk a direct war with Russia, leading to a potential nuclear conflict.

Second, officials and experts feel that even as Ukraine has impressed the world with its resolute defence, especially around Kyiv, Russia is unwilling to let go off its offensives in east and south, in Donbas region and Black Sea.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been rallying the public through his regular speeches, he might get trapped in his own rhetoric. Ukraine wants Russia to vacate all its territory, which is unlikely to happen. Before launching his “special military operations” on February 24, Vladimir Putin had announced recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics, which means it does not consider it to be part of Ukraine anymore.

This will become another sticking point. Russia is unlikely to pull back its troops from these regions, and with Zelenskyy insisting on this, will become a roadblock. Also, he may not be able to convince his own people of a peace deal that does not include Russia pulling all its troops back.

Then there is also the logistical problem about how such a deal, even if one is agreed upon, can be approved. Mykhailo Podoliak, President’s adviser and member of Ukraine’s negotiating team, had outlined the problems last week.

He mentioned that while guaranteeing countries will need to approve them, within Ukraine, there will have to be a referendum, which cannot be held till there is martial law, which had kicked in on February 24. Also, more than 10 million Ukrainians are displaced, which is nearly one-fourth of the country’s population, with over 4 million having left the country.

The martial law cannot be removed till there are foreign troops on Ukraine’s territory, he said. So, unless Russia withdraws all its troops, that will not happen, he had said. Creating a quagmire.

In addition to all this, experts and officials also do not believe that Russia is negotiating in good faith. Putin has appointed Gen Alexander Dvornikov as the new general to lead Russia’s assault in Ukraine as it refocuses on the Donbas region. Gen Dvornikov had headed Russian operations in Syria. This comes after Russian forces were unable to take control of Kyiv and other larger cities.

Officials and experts feel that this will now become a frozen conflict which can continue for years. Many also feel that Russia is likely to keep pushing as much as it can for another month, till early May. Putin, these experts and officials feel, will need to show something for victory of his objectives by May 9, which is when Russia celebrates the Victory Day, over the victory of the allied forces in World War 2 over Nazi Germany. De-nazification of Ukraine has been one of Putin’s declared objectives for this war.

After that, as the West continues to provide weapons to Ukraine, including tanks in the coming days, procured from nations that have Soviet-era or Russian-made tanks, which Ukraine forces know how to operate, the conflict will continue with neither side gaining much success.