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La Niña conditions will prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean through April, US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Monday.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon wherein either warmer-than-normal (El Niño), neutral or cooler-than-normal (La Niña) sea surface temperatures are recorded along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO influences global weather and can cause climate extremes.
All through the last month, the sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained below average.
“Weak La Niña conditions will continue through February – April and then transition into ENSO neutral. The weak La Niña is less likely to result in conventional winter / spring impacts,” the update said.
The latest weekly Niño indices — the indicator of the ENSO phase — ranged between -0.6 degrees Celius in Niño 3.4 to -0.9 degrees Celsius in Niño 4 region.
The ongoing La Niña emerged in January this year and multiple global weather agencies had forecast it to be a weak and short event.
If ENSO neutral conditions are established as predicted, it will coincide with India’s summer monsoon period June – September.
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