Spending on adaptation to climate change 5.6% of GDP: India puts on record

But this is only in the business-as-usual scenario, that is only if climate vulnerability does not deteriorate during this period. Climate-induced damage could escalate this amount by another Rs 15.5 lakh crore.

Adaptation efforts are meant to reduce the impacts of climate change. Along with mitigation, or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation is a central pillar of global climate action. Adaptation activities span a sweeping range and include actions like creating sea-walls to protect against rising sea levels; development of temperature-resilient crops; heat-action plans; early warning systems, creation of disaster-resilient infrastructure are all examples of adaptation activities.

Timely effort towards adaptation can prevent climate disasters and economic losses. The money spent on protecting an airport or a power station against flooding, for example, would be much less than the chaos or economic losses incurred when they go out of operation because of an extreme rainfall or flooding event.

Under the global climate change framework, countries are supposed to measure their annual greenhouse gas emissions every few years, and submit it to UNFCCC for maintaining a global inventory. This used to be called National Communication, NATCOMs, under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol mechanism. Under the Paris Agreement that has replaced Kyoto Protocol, this submission is called Biennial Update Reports, or BURs.

On Saturday, India submitted its third NATCOM which will finish its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. It has also submitted three BURs under the Paris Agreement so far, and that will continue. The third National Communication contains detailed inventory of India’s greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2019.

It shows that India’s total emissions in 2019 was 3.13 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Accounting for the absorptions by the forestry sector, the net emissions was 2.64 billion tonnes. This is less than half of United States and less than one-fourth of that of China.

The inventory shows that energy sector, comprising, among others, electricity production and road transport, accounted for over 75 per cent of India’s total emissions, followed by agriculture which contributed about 13 per cent and industry whose share was about 8 per cent.

The Paris Agreement also asked countries to submit and, periodically, update, an adaptation communication, detailing their priorities on this front, and the actions they were taking along with, in the case of developing countries, the technological and financial support they needed to carry out their efforts. India’s first Adaptation Communication was submitted along with the third NATCOM Saturday.

The Adaptation Communication provides a detailed description of India’s vulnerability to climate change, its adaptation requirements, and actions being taken or envisaged. Several government plans and policies, like the Jal Jeevan Mission, PM Awas Yojana, Swachhta Mission, Ganga cleaning exercise, heat action plans, or cyclone warning system have important adaptation co-benefits.

In an assessment of the risks it faced on account of climate change, India said total economic value of crop loss (food as well as non-food) due to climate impacts were projected to range between USD 28.6 and 54.8 billion between 2030 and 2050 (2015 prices). Over the next 50 years, these losses could shoot up to USD 612 to 1,014 billion.

State-wise, it said, “Uttar Pradesh would suffer the highest economic loss due to impacts of climate change on state agriculture. This is because the state is the largest contributor to India’s food crop and sugarcane production… Uttar Pradesh will account for 20-22 per cent of the economic value of cumulative crop loss between 2030 and 2050, and 25-28 per cent between 2050 and 2100… After Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra will face the most significant economic losses due to climate impacts on agriculture”.

India said its expenditure on adaptation-relevant activities, both in absolute amount as well as in proportion to the GDP, had been rising, up from about Rs 5 lakh crore and 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 to Rs 13.35 lakh crore and 5.6 per cent of GDP in 2021-22. It said it would benefit from international financial support in this regard.

“It is evident that India’s financial requirements for adaptation will only increase, given the vulnerabilities, and increased spending on adaptation is essential for India’s economy and to protect developmental gains. International climate finance holds the key to the effective implementation of adaptation plans in India,” the 668-page submission says.

The international climate change regime mandates developed countries to provide finance to the developing countries for carrying out mitigation, adaptation and several other climate-related activities.

Speaking at COP28 in Dubai Saturday, Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav said the latest submissions underscored the country’s “consistent contribution towards climate action while also prioritising the development and well-being of our people”.

With negotiations at COP28 poised at crucial stage, Yadav reiterated that a new amount for annual climate finance flows, that has to be decided by next year, would be finalised in keeping with the requirements of the developing countries.

“As we gather here in Dubai for COP28, India looks forward to the Global Stocktake’s outcomes and hope that they will provide meaningful and relevant inputs for deciding on enhanced climate action. The resource mobilisation under the New Collective Quantified Goal (new climate finance amount) must be guided by the needs and requirements of the developing countries,” Yadav said.