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The Indian Express’ UPSC weekly news express covers some of the important and burning topics of current affairs news from this week to help you prepare for UPSC-CSE. Try out the MCQs and check your answers provided towards the end of the article.
Why in news?
— February 23, hundreds of followers of Amritpal Singh, a radical preacher and pro-Khalistan leader, clashed violently with police outside Ajnala police station near Amritsar, demanding the release of one of their colleagues who had been taken into custody in an alleged kidnapping case.
—Amritpal Singh, 29, is a follower of the slain Sikh militant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, and is often dubbed as “Bhindranwale 2.0” in Punjab. He returned from Dubai last year to take the reins of the ‘Waris Punjab De’ organisation following the death of its founder, actor-activist Deep Sidhu.
— “Our aim for Khalistan shouldn’t be seen as evil and taboo…It’s an ideology and ideology never dies. We are not asking for it from Delhi”, Amritpal Singh told ANI on Friday. In the aftermath of the violence by Amritpal Singh’s supporters on Thursday, the Congress warned against the return of the “dark days of violence…which every Punjabi is scared of”.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Arjun Sengupta Explains:
What is the Khalistan movement?
— The Khalistan movement is a fight for a separate, sovereign Sikh state in present day Punjab (both India and Pakistan). Over the years, it has survived in various forms, in various places and amongst different populations.
— The movement was crushed in India following Operation Blue Star (1984) and Operation Black Thunder (1986 and 1988), but it continues to evoke sympathy and support among sections of the Sikh population, especially in the Sikh diaspora in countries such as Canada, the UK, and Australia.
When did the movement start and why?
— The origins of the movement have been traced back to India’s independence and subsequent Partition along religious lines. The Punjab province, which was divided between India and Pakistan, saw some of the worst communal violence and generated millions of refugees: Sikhs and Hindus stranded on the west (in Pakistan) rushed to the east, whereas Muslims in the east fled westward.
— Lahore, the capital of Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s great Sikh Empire, went to Pakistan, as did holy Sikh sites including Nankana Sahib, the birthplace of Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism. While most Sikhs found themselves in India, they were a small minority in the country, making up around 2 per cent of the population.
— The political struggle for greater autonomy began around the time of Independence, with the Punjabi Suba Movement for the creation of a Punjabi-speaking state. The States Reorganisation Commission, in its 1955 report, rejected this demand, but in 1966, after years of protest, the state of Punjab was reorganised to reflect the Punjabi Suba demand.
— The erstwhile Punjab state was trifurcated into the Hindi-speaking, Hindu-majority states of Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, and the Punjabi-speaking, Sikh-majority Punjab.
What was the Anandpur Sahib Resolution?
— The Punjabi Suba movement had galvanised the Akali Dal which became a major force in the new Sikh-majority Punjab, and gave the Congress hard fights in the Legislative Assembly elections of 1967 and 1969. But in 1972, in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s resounding victory in the 1971 Lok Sabha elections, the Akali Dal’s performance in the state was underwhelming.
— The party met at the sacred town of Anandpur Sahib, the birthplace of the Khalsa, in 1973, and released a list of demands that would guide the political path of the Akali Dal. Among other things, the Anandpur Sahib Resolution demanded autonomy for the state of Punjab, identified regions that would be part of a separate state, and sought the right to frame its own internal constitution.
— The Akali Dal was trying to cash in on the growing demand for an autonomous state which had emerged alongside the Punjabi Suba movement and had gone global by 1971 — when an advertisement appeared on The New York Times proclaiming the birth of Khalistan.
— While the Akalis themselves repeatedly made it clear that they were not demanding secession from India, for the Indian state, the Anandpur Sahib Resolution was of grave concern.
When did Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale come into the picture?
— Many in Punjab sought to go beyond just a demand for greater autonomy. One such man was Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, a charismatic preacher who soon positioned himself as “the authentic voice of the Sikhs, in contrast to the Akali Dal’s lukewarm, vacillating leadership”, the Canadian journalist Terry Milewski wrote in his book Blood for Blood: Fifty years of the global Khalistan project.
— Some accounts claim that Bhindranwale was propped up by Sanjay Gandhi, Indira’s son, to stand against the Akalis for Congress’s political benefit. However, by the 1980s, the appeal of Bhindranwale had grown so much that he started to become a problem for the government.
— He found a captive audience in the state’s youth, especially those in the lower rungs of the social ladder, and massed a massive following. He and his followers were also getting increasingly violent.
— In the summer of 1982, Bhindranwale, with support from the Akali Dal’s leadership, launched a civil disobedience movement called the Dharam Yudh Morcha. He took up residence inside the Golden Temple, directing demonstrations and clashes with the police.
— The movement was geared towards the demands first articulated in the Anandpur Sahib Resolution, especially the socio-economic demands, which addressed concerns of the state’s rural Sikh population. However, amidst growing religious polarisation, sectarian violence, and Bhindranwale’s own harsh rhetoric against Hindus, Indira Gandhi’s government declared the movement tantamount to secession.
What was Operation Blue Star?
— By 1984, the situation in Punjab had become increasingly untenable for the government. Bhindranwale had given a call to arms, and instances of violence against Hindus as well as government officers had become common.
— In 1983, a senior police officer was shot dead after praying at the Golden Temple and his body was left to decay in the sun, while the local police station did nothing — perhaps both out of fear and sympathy to Bhindranwale’s cause.
— The late KPS Gill, the DGP of Punjab Police who is credited with bringing the Punjab militancy under control, later wrote about the situation: “Ugly as the [DIG Avtar Singh] Atwal murder was, however, it was only a beginning… This became a regular feature; bodies, mutilated, hacked to pieces, stuffed into gunny bags, kept appearing mysteriously in the gutters and sewers around the Temple.”
— Indira Gandhi took the fateful decision to order the Indian Army to flush out militants from the Golden Temple and neutralise Bhindranwale. Operation Blue Star began on June 1, 1984, but due to fierce resistance from Bhindranwale and his heavily armed supporters, the Army’s operation became larger and more violent than had been originally intended, with the use of tanks and air support. The image of Indian Army tanks shelling the holiest shrine of Sikhism was traumatic, and the very large number of civilian casualties that occurred during the operation added to the trauma.
— According to the government, 83 Indian Army soldiers were killed and 249 were injured in the operation. A total 493 militants and civilians were killed in the operation.
— Other estimates peg the number of casualties much higher — as much as 3,000. Mark Tully, reporting for the BBC at the time, noted that the operation coincided with the martyrdom day of Guru Arjan Dev, the fifth guru of the Sikhs; hence the number of pilgrims in the Golden Temple was higher than usual.
What happened in the aftermath of Operation Blue Star?
— While the operation was ostensibly successful in its aims — Bhindranwale was killed and the Golden Temple was freed of militants — it gravely wounded the Sikh community around the world. It also galvanised the demand for Khalistan.
— On October 31, 1984, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two Sikh bodyguards. This triggered the worst communal violence since Partition — even according to conservative estimates, over 8,000 Sikhs were massacred in massive anti-Sikh street violence. A year later, Sikh nationalists based in Canada blew up an Air India flight killing 329 people. They claimed that the attack was to “avenge Bhindranwale’s killing”.
— Punjab saw the worst violence, becoming the hub of a long drawn out insurgency that lasted till 1995. While the movement was allegedly supported by Pakistan to cause internal unrest in its neighbouring country, it would slowly peter out by the 1990s as the violence took its toll, the bulk of the population turned against the militants, and India headed towards economic liberalisation.
What is the status of the Khalistan movement today?
— Punjab has long been peaceful, but the movement lives among some Sikh communities overseas. Milewski told The Indian Express in 2021, “ the diaspora is composed predominantly of people who don’t want to live in India… These people include many who remember the bad old days of the 80s”, and thus the support for Khalistan remains stronger there.
— The deep rooted anger over Operation Blue Star and the desecration of the Golden Temple continues to resonate with some in the newer generations of Sikhs. However, even as Bhindranwale is viewed as a martyr by many and the 1980s remembered as dark times, this has not manifested into tangible political support for the Khalistan cause.
— As Milewski put it, “There is a small minority that is clinging to the past, and that small minority remains significant not because of popular support, but rather because they are trying to keep up their political influence with various political parties both from the left and the right. They can rally supporters en masse who will vote for the politicians who can sing their song.”
Point to ponder: What is Operation Blue Star? The focus of closure should be the delegitimisation of violence, the reducing of incentives to violence and delivery of restorative justice and reconciliation. Discuss.
(Source: As Amritpal Singh’s followers run amok, a brief history of the Khalistan movement )
1. MCQ:
Operation Black Thunder is closely related to which state of India?
(a) Tamil Nadu
(b) Chhattisgarh
(c) Gujarat
(d) Punjab
Why in news?
— Days before the first anniversary of the beginning of the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin announced in an address to his nation on Tuesday (February 21) that Russia is suspending its participation in the New START, the last remaining major military agreement with the United States.
— Putin said the fact that the US wants to inspect Russia’s military facilities — a requirement under the treaty — while at the same time saying openly that its goal is Russia’s strategic defeat, was the “theatre of the absurd”.
What is the New START?
— The name START comes from the original “Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty”, known as START-I, which was signed between the US and the erstwhile USSR in 1991, and came into force in 1994.
— START-I, which capped the numbers of nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that each side could deploy at 6,000 and 1,600 respectively, lapsed in 2009, and was replaced first by the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT, also known as the Treaty of Moscow), and then by the New START treaty.
— The New START, officially, the “Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms”, entered into force on February 5, 2011, and placed new verifiable limits on intercontinental-range nuclear weapons.
— The two countries had to meet the treaty’s central limits on strategic offensive arms by February 5, 2018, and to then stay within those limits for the period the treaty remained in force. The US and Russia Federation subsequently agreed to extend the treaty through February 4, 2026.
What limits did the New START impose on the two countries?
According to the New START page on the website of the US Department of State, the central limits of the treaty that the US and Russia met by February 5, 2018, and have adhered to since then are:
* 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;
* 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);
* 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.
How is compliance with the treaty ensured?
— Detailed procedures for the implementation and verification of the central limits, and all treaty obligations, are part of the treaty terms.
— According to the State Department summary, these procedures govern the conversion and elimination of strategic offensive arms, the establishment and operation of a database of treaty-required information, transparency measures, a commitment not to interfere with national technical means of verification, the exchange of telemetric information, the conduct of on-site inspection activities, and the operation of the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC).
— The treaty provides for 18 on-site inspections per year for US and Russian inspection teams. Type One inspections focus on sites with deployed and non-deployed strategic systems (up to 10 per year), and Type Two inspections focus on sites with only non-deployed strategic systems (up to 8 per year), the State Department note says.
— Since the New START Treaty’s entry into force, as of February 1, 2023, the two parties have conducted 328 on-site inspections, exchanged 25,311 notifications, held 19 meetings of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, and held 42 biannual data exchanges on strategic offensive arms subject to the treaty.
What is the latest situation on compliance?
— The State Department told Congress in January this year that Russia was not complying with the New START, only remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the two countries, jeopardizing a source of stability in their relationship, The New York Times reported.
“Russia’s refusal to facilitate inspection activities prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control,” the State Department said in a statement.
“Russia has also failed to comply with the New START treaty obligation to convene a session of the bilateral consultative commission in accordance with the treaty-mandated timeline,” it said.
— The NYT report recalled that Russia had announced in August 2022 that it was suspending US inspectors’ access to its nuclear arsenal, and in November, it had cancelled a diplomatic meeting of the bilateral commission. Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency had reported then that the meeting was being postponed because the United States “did not want to take into account Russia’s priorities, they wanted to discuss only the resumption of inspections”, quoting a top Russian official.
(Source: Russia suspends New START: What is its last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with US?)
Point to ponder: How global power dynamics are shifting with the Russia-Ukraine war and what challenges it poses for India?
2. MCQ:
Operation New STAR relates Russia with:
(a) China
(b) US
(c) Ukraine
(d) Pakistan
Why in news?
— While the high seas make up more than 60% of the world’s oceans, they have long drawn far less attention than coastal waters. The UN wants to protect them in a global treaty.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
— Fishing, shipping, tourism and ocean protection are currently controlled by around 20 organizations. However, their regulations only apply to a distance of 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the coast. Farther out, international waters start, and individual states don’t have any power or say.
— Although the high seas make up more than half of the surface of the Earth and 61% of all oceans, only 1% of international waters are under protection.
— Illegal fishing, overfishing and other forms of damage to the ecosystem, such as deep-sea mining, oil and gas drilling, can hardly be monitored, tracked or prosecuted in a consistent way.
— That’s why government officials from 51 countries want to now negotiate the High Seas Treaty at the United Nations in New York. The treaty has been in the works for years and is supposed to protect species and allocate the oceans’ resources in a sustainable way.
Why is a healthy underwater world so important for humans and our planet?
— The resources of the ocean don’t just sustain coast dwellers, but almost 3 billion people worldwide. The entire sea industry has a worth of $3 trillion (€2.8 trillion) — that’s 5% of the world’s gross domestic product.
— The ocean isn’t just important for beach tourists and fishers. We also need it in order to generate sustainable wave and tidal energy, as well as for the production of commodities and even medicine.
— Some agents used to fight leukemia, for instance, are derived from a shallow water sponge called Tectitethya crypta, which can be found in the waters of the Caribbean. The poison of the fish-eating sea snail Conus magus is being used to develop an effective painkiller. Many similar possibilities have yet to be explored, but scientists see a huge potential for the treatment of diseases.
Why climate change is stressful for oceans
— More than half of the total amount of oxygen in our atmosphere is created by creatures in the ocean. At the same time, oceans store 50 times more carbon dioxide than what’s currently found in our atmosphere. The warmer the ocean gets, the less CO2 it can store. It’s a vicious cycle: the warmer it gets, the less our oceans can protect the planet from even more extreme weather events.
— If temperatures keep increasing at their current speed, scientists believe many shellfish such as mussels and snails will not survive. That’s due to ocean acidification: if the CO2 content in the seawater increases, the PH level in the water changes. The increasing acidity hampers the creation of the chalky shells of the animals. This throws entire biospheres off-balance, and could threaten entire economic sectors, such as the breeding of oysters and mussels.
— The rising temperatures in the atmosphere triggered by the burning of coal, oil and gas also change ocean currents as the water gets warmer. This can already mean death for many creatures, such as corals. Corals live in symbiosis with colorful algae which help feed them. The warming of the water can lead to algae death, which means more stress for corals, leading to many losing their color, which is also known as coral bleaching.
How can we protect ocean ecosystems?
— If nothing changes, half of all sea dwellers will be critically endangered by the end of this century, according to estimates by UNESCO. This doesn’t necessarily mean we can’t use the ocean any longer. It just means we have to use it in a way that doesn’t harm it, or at least only harms it to the extent that it can regenerate on its own.
— Every year, we toss away 10 million tons of fish — that could fill more than 4,500 swimming pools — because of bad fishing practices and processing. This could be prevented, and in turn directly decrease pressure on our oceans.
— Another example: sewage. Around 80% of global wastewater is currently being diverted into oceans, unfiltered. In the poorest countries of the world it’s even up to 95%. This wastewater pollutes, contaminates and destroys oceans and coastal regions. Building sustainable sewage systems, especially in developing countries, would protect ocean ecosystems and contribute to better drinking water supplies in many places.
Will a new treaty help?
— According to the UN’s environment program, international treaties are one of the best ways to stop the destruction of oceans.
— Many treaties have been signed in recent years regarding the protection of coastal regions. Some have already had a positive effect on the environment; many, however, have not been able to reach their goals. That has to do with the fact that agreements are always dependent on national parliaments turning them into laws, and allocating enough resources to institutions and projects so the goals can be reached.
— The EU is pushing for an ambitious new treaty for species protection and the implementation of the historic 2022 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Part of this historic agreement is to put 30% of the globe under protection until 2030. Meanwhile, 18 developing and emerging nations are pushing for the introduction of a mechanism that guarantees the fair distribution of ocean resources.
(Source: How to save our high seas from overfishing, pollution by Deutsche Welle)
Point to ponder: How to make Indian Ocean Plastic free?
3. MCQ:
Consider the following kinds of organisms (2021):
1. Copepods
2. Cyanobacteria
3. Diatoms
4. Foraminifera
Which of the above are primary producers in the food chains of oceans?
(a) 1 and 2
(b) 2 and 3
(c) 3 and 4
(d) 1 and 4
Why in news?
— Around 15 million people across the world face the risk of sudden and deadly flooding from glacial lakes, which are expanding and rising in numbers due to global warming, according to a new study. More than half of those who could be impacted live in four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and China.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
— Published in the journal Nature, the study, ‘Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally’ has been conducted by Caroline Taylor, Rachel Carr and Stuart Dunning of Newcastle University (UK), Tom Robinson of the University of Canterbury (New Zealand), and Matthew Westoby of Northumbria University (UK).
— Glacial lakes result from shrinking glaciers. Once the water is released from them, it could cause flooding in the downstream areas. This is known as glacial lake outburst floods or GLOF. Although GLOFs have been taking place since the ice age, the risk has increased multifold due to climate change, researchers of the latest study said.
— GLOFs can prove to be catastrophic as they mostly arrive with little warning and result in large-scale destruction of property, infrastructure, and agricultural land. They can also lead to the death of hundreds of people.
— Speaking to The Indian Express, Tom Robinson, the co-author of the paper, said, “As the climate continues to warm, glacier retreatwill form larger and more numerous lakes. At the same time, lakes are likely to become more exposed to GLOF ‘triggers’, such as a large landslide or ice avalanche entering the lake, displacing water, and causing the natural dam that impounds the lake to fail.”
“So, lakes that perhaps aren’t a concern at present may become a concern in the future, and entirely new and potentially dangerous lakes may form.”
— According to a 2020 study, the number and total area of glacial lakes worldwide have increased by about 50 per cent since 1990, The Washington Post reported.
What are the findings of the new study?
— In order to identify the areas and communities that are most in danger from GLOFs, the researchers used existing satellite-derived data on different locations and sizes of glacial lakes with a global population model and a series of population metrics.
“We’ve made a conservative estimate that anyone living within 50 km of a glacial lake and one km of a river that originates from a glacial lake could be impacted, either directly or indirectly, if one or more of the lakes upstream failed,” Robinson told The Indian Express.
— Moreover, the researchers also looked at levels of human development and corruption in these zones to determine how vulnerable local communities may be when floods occur.
— As mentioned before, the paper estimates that 15 million people live within the 50 km danger zone of glacial lakes. It adds that populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) — a region stretching from the Hindu Kush all the way to the eastern Himalayas — are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with around one million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake.
“India and Pakistan make up one-third of the total number of people globally exposed to GLOFs — around three million people in India and around two million people in Pakistan,” Robinson said.
— Another interesting finding of the study is that the glacial flood risks don’t only depend on the size and number of glacial lakes in an area. What also matters is the number of people living in the area, their proximity to the danger zone as well as the levels of social vulnerability.
— For instance, areas like Greenland and Canada, which have a large number of glacial lakes, have very few people who are vulnerable to GLOFs as their population and corruption levels are low.
“While the number and size of glacial lakes in these areas (India and Pakistan) isn’t as large as in places like the Pacific Northwest or Tibet, it’s that extremely large population and the fact that they are highly vulnerable that means Pakistan and India have some of the highest GLOF danger globally. In fact, the most dangerous catchment in the world in our study is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan,” Robinson explained.
— However, the most surprising bit for the scientists was to find Peru ranking third globally in danger levels. They point out that in the past two decades, due to climate change, glacial lakes across the Andes have increased by 93 per cent, in comparison to 37 per cent in high-mountain Asia. Yet most of the previous studies done in the field have focused on the Himalayas rather than the Andes, the latest paper said.
What exactly are glacial lake outburst floods or GLOFs?
— Glacial lakes are large bodies of water that sit in front of, on top of, or beneath a melting glacier. As they grow larger in size, they become more dangerous because glacial lakes are mostly dammed by unstable ice or sediment composed of loose rock and debris. In case the boundary around them breaks, huge amounts of water rush down the side of the mountains, which could cause flooding in the downstream areas. This is called glacial lake outburst floods or GLOF.
— Robinson said that GLOF can be triggered by several reasons, including earthquakes and ice avalanches.
“These lakes are also often found in steep, mountainous regions, which means landslides or ice avalanches can sometimes fall directly into the lakes and displace the water, causing it to over-top the natural dam and flood downstream,” he added.
— In 2013, one such event took place in Uttarakhand’s Kedarnath when the region witnessed flash floods along with a GLOF caused by the Chorabari Tal glacial lake, killing thousands of people.
How can GLOFs be prevented?
— According to Robinson, reducing the risk of GLOFs is complex and no single solution would work.
“Limiting climate change and keeping warming under 1.5 degree Celsius is a big one as this will help slow the growth of glacial lakes, but unfortunately a certain amount ofice lossis already ‘locked in’ – if we stopped all emissions today GLOF hazard will continue to increase for several decades,” he added.
— Robinson further explained that there is a need to find effective measures by working with national and regional governments, as well as communities themselves. This includes working at the local level and finding appropriate measures for the threatened populations.
(Source: ‘Millions’ in India, Pakistan at risk of flooding from glacial lakes: What a new study says by Alind Chauhan)
Point to ponder: A green cover in the adjacent valleys of the glaciers is essential. Discuss.
4. MCQ:
On the planet earth, most of the freshwater exists as ice caps and glaciers. Out of the remaining freshwater, the largest proportion (2013)
(a) is found in the atmosphere as moisture and clouds
(b) is found in freshwater lakes and rivers
(c) exists as groundwater
(d) exists as soil moisture
Why in news?
— It is still February, technically a winter month, and temperatures in some parts of the country are touching 40 degrees Celsius. There are already concerns over the possibility of an intensely hot summer and extended heat waves this year.
— While this can’t be ruled out, the current spell of abnormally high temperatures, mainly in northern and western India, is no indicator of how hot the summer, or the rest of the year will be.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Amitabh Sinha Explains:
— The prevailing hot conditions are expected to subside in another two days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But it is still likely to still remain above the normal temperatures.
India IMD Weather Forecast: An unusually warm Feb, IMD’s heat wave dilemma
— The maximum temperature in February, averaged over the country as a whole, is expected to be around 28 degrees C based on the record of the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. This is taken to be the “normal”. The minimum temperature is expected to be around 15 degrees C.
— Of course, this varies across regions, with states in northwestern, western, central, and eastern India having higher normal temperatures.
— Over the past week, however, maximum temperatures have been 5-11 degrees C higher than normal in most parts of northern and western India. Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have been the most conspicuously hot, with temperatures in a few places reaching almost 40 degrees C.
— However, the biggest deviation from the normal has been seen in the relatively cool states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, where it has been 10-11 degrees C warmer in some places.
— In fact, such abnormally high temperatures qualify to be described as a “heat wave”. And it has the IMD in a fix.
— If temperatures in the plains exceed 40 degree C, or are about 4.5 degree C higher than the normal, these areas are said to be experiencing a heatwave. For the mountains, this threshold is 30 degrees C, and for the coastal areas, 37 degrees C.
— By these definitions, several places have been experiencing heat wave conditions for the last few days. However, heat wave declarations by the IMD, which trigger follow-up action by the local administration, are meant only for the April-July period, not for February or March.
Absent western disturbances and weak sea breezes
— Any abnormal or extreme weather events are attributed to climate change these days. In most cases, particularly those related to unusually high temperatures, climate change is indeed the underlying or aggravating factor.
— But the observed abnormalities in weather do not always follow a fixed pattern, which might be expected if climate change was the sole determinant of these events. The randomness in extreme weather events is due to a variety of local and short-term meteorological coincidences.
— The IMD has attributed the current spell of hot weather to a combination of factors, including the absence of western disturbance activity in February, which brings some rainfall in this month and keeps temperatures down.
— Until now, less than a sixth of the country — just 110 of the 717 districts for which data are available — has recorded normal or excess rainfall for February. The IMD has said that the plains have been relatively dry, and rainfall or snowfall in the hills has been subdued.
— According to the IMD, an anticyclonic formation over south Gujarat is one of the main reasons for the warming on the west coast. Its effect was being transmitted northward to Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and western Uttar Pradesh.
— Around Maharashtra and Goa, a weaker-than-usual sea breeze along the Konkan coast was aggravating the effects of the anticyclone. Over the next couple of days, however, temperatures were likely to drop by 2-3 degree Celsius in most of these areas, the IMD said.
Weakening La Niña raises fears of a global heat record
— Globally, this year is widely expected to be a little hotter than the previous two years, mainly because of the expected end of the strongest ever La Niña event. La Niña refers to cooler than normal surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather. La Niña conditions tend to have a temporary cooling effect on the Earth’s atmosphere as well.
— The last two years have been cooler only in relative terms. Average global temperatures in 2022 were 1.15 degrees C higher than the pre-industrial average, making it the fifth or sixth warmest year on record. It was the fifth warmest year in India as well. The World Meteorological Organisation said it could have been substantially warmer in the absence of the La Niña event.
— This cushion against warming provided by the La Niña is projected to go in the next couple of months, raising fears that this year could set new warming records. The hottest year on record so far is 2016, when average global temperatures were 1.28 degrees C higher than the pre-industrial average. The 2015-2022 period saw the warmest eight years on record, each year being at least a degree C warmer than pre-industrial times.
Abnormal is the new normal, expect the unexpected
— Unusually high temperatures, or other extreme weather events, should hardly be a surprise now. Almost every month and year sees a record or two fall. Global warming has affected weather systems in very complicated ways, triggering unpredictable impacts.
— So, not all places are showing a consistent rising trend in temperatures. Several unusually colder months have also been recorded. Periods of extraordinarily intense rainfall have been interspersed with prolonged dry spells. The predictable patterns present difficult challenges for weather agencies around the world, who are finding it increasingly difficult to issue accurate forecasts and early warnings.
— An essential part of adapting to the new realities is to expect the unexpected, and to build resilience to the extent possible.
(Source: Unusual February heat, and the ‘normal abnormal’ in global weather by Amitabh Sinha )
5. MCQ:
“Each day is more or less the same, the morning is clear and bright with a sea breeze; as the Sun climbs high in the sky, heat mounts up, dark clouds form, then rain comes with thunder and lightning. But the rain is soon over.”
Which of the following regions is described in the above passage?
(a) Savannah
(b) Equatorial
(c) Monsoon
(d) Mediterranean
Share your views, answers and suggestions in the comment box or at manas.srivastava@indianexpress.com
