Panchayat polls hold a silver lining for TMC, but also looming clouds

However, there are portents that will worry the TMC. While its cadres were among the 50 killed in the panchayat election violence so far, including on the day of the polling, the incidents might lead to a blowback against the party. The 2018 violence, resulting in as many as 34% of the seats won by the TMC uncontested, had cost the party dear in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The Opposition too knows this and hence has been consistently raising the issue of the violence – alleging high-handedness, terrorising of opponents, preventing them from filing nominations etc — with Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday calling what had happened “blood-curdling”.

Both the BJP and Congress went to court to demand Central forces before the polls, and a series of petitions have ensured that the High Court has declared that the final results will be withheld till it has heard the pleas.

A senior TMC leader admitted their fears. “In 2018, our party had won almost all the gram panchayats, like this year. But the violence had angered the people and in the 2019 (Lok Sabha polls), we lost 18 seats to the BJP (apart from 2 seats to the Congress). This year also, the violence and deaths may affect the Lok Sabha elections.”

In fact, the official death toll in panchayat poll-related violence in 2018 and 2013 (held after the TMC reign began) was 14 and 13, much below the figure of 50 this time. Unofficially, the death toll in 2018 is presumed to have been above 70.

The most number of deaths officially registered so far were in the 2003 panchayat elections, when around 80 people were killed.

The senior TMC leader said the violence would also hit the party as it comes at a time when it is trying to forge an alliance with the Congress and CPI(M) – its bitter rivals in the state — at the national level. “This has tarnished our image in the national perspective. Our bargaining power in the alliance will decrease,” the leader said.

The TMC claims the reports of violence are vastly exaggerated, and asks why the Central forces ordered by the court did not arrive on time. As the results came in, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and her No. 2 Abhishek Banerjee said, “On the day of polling, incidents of violence took place in around 60-62 booths, but it was used to defame the entire state. Around 700 booths (of the more than 60,000) saw repolling. Not a single discrepancy or untoward incident was reported during repolling. In the Jangalmahal areas, including districts such as Bankura, Purulia and Paschim Midnapore, people remained in queue till midnight, just to vote. In Jhargram, the TMC won all the gram panchayats but there were no complaints.”

Abhishek added that despite violence being seen in “less than 0.01% seats (60-62 of more than 60,000 booths)”, “within two days, the demand for repolling by the Opposition was taken into cognisance and the repolling conducted peacefully”. Abhishek also claimed “100% nominations” this time, unlike in 2018 (actually, 10% of the seats saw no contest and were won by the TMC).

Abhishek said the TMC had fulfilled its promise “to remove the culture of violence” from the panchayat elections, and questioned the impression that the BJP was gaining. “If the BJP’s vote share goes down from 38% to 22%, does that signal an increase or a decrease?” Abhishek said. The State Election Commission is yet to come out with the final figures though.

However, while the Opposition’s larger presence in the race would help the TMC counter charges of poll rigging, it is also a worry, being a sign that its older rivals are reviving.

If in 2018, the TMC enjoyed absolute majority in terms of booth-level organisation, this time it faced stiff resistance in districts like East Midnapore, Murshidabad and Malda. “The BJP’s vote share seems to have decreased but the Left’s and Congress’s appears to have increased. Our estimate is they got almost 22% of the votes, 12% more than the 2021 Assembly elections. Resistance also came from the Left and Congress alliance at the booth level,” a senior TMC leader said.

It is the performance of the Left’s other ally, Indian Secular Front (ISF), which will worry the TMC more. The party that claims to represent Muslim and Dalit interests won 1 seat in 2021, but seems to have extended its influence – especially among the Muslim youth – beyond its stronghold Bhangar. Founded by the Peerzada of the revered Furfura Sharif, the ISF picked up seats in many districts.

The TMC has been worried about its hold on its loyal Muslim vote bank since the Sagardighi bypoll in January this year, and the ISF’s performance will give it more sleepless nights. The Congress and Left also picked up seats in minority-dominated Murshidabad and Malda districts.

The TMC has made several overtures to the minorities since Sagardighi, and a minority leader of the TMC said the panchayat results were no benchmark to judge the community’s mood.

“We got almost 90% of the minority votes in the 2021 Assembly elections as Muslims were afraid of the rise of the BJP in West Bengal. But, in panchayat elections, voting happens on local issues. This may have seen a division of the Muslim vote, but this won’t happen in the Lok Sabha elections,” the leader said.

The panchayat results also settle the leadership question in the TMC, with the rise of Abhishek that began after the 2021 Assembly polls now complete. He is said to have called the shots in the panchayat elections, right from names of candidates to campaigning, taking over completely after Mamata suffered a slight injury.