The high-voltage Thrikkakara Assembly by-poll in Kerala’s Ernakulam district will be held on Tuesday after weeks of intense campaigning by both the Left and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
For the Left, victory in the by-poll will take its tally in the 140-member House to 100 and will be interpreted as a mandate for the proposed semi-high-speed SilverLine rail corridor that has received a lot of pushback from the Opposition. For the Congress, it will be an electoral test for its new state leadership led by K Sudhakaran, the current state unit president, and Opposition leader V D Satheesan. It will also provide a broad indication of whether Christian votes are with the party. The community forms around 40 per cent of the electorate in Thrikkakara but in recent times several Christian faces have exited the Congress. The UDF has won the constituency since 2011.
Over the past month, leaders from across the political spectrum have been on a door-to-door campaign in this urban constituency that consists of a part of the Kochi municipal corporation area and the municipality of Thrikkakara, which is a temple town. Congress has fielded Uma Thomas, the wife of late legislator P T Thomas whose death necessitated the by-election. The Left candidate is cardiologist Dr Jo Joseph of the CPI(M). The BJP is also in the fray with its seasoned leader A N Radhakrishnan as the candidate.
For the CPI(M), Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has campaigned extensively for Dr Joseph over the past two weeks, seeking the support of a large number of working professionals and the middle class in the constituency. The Congress, meanwhile, is keen to show that the ouster of K V Thomas won’t affect its prospects. According to political observers, an adverse poll outcome has the potential to trigger a rebellion in the party against Satheesan and Sudhakaran.
Controversies galore
The campaigning period saw often heated exchanges between the ruling coalition and the Congress, and a host of controversies erupted in the past few weeks. These rows put on the backburner any debate around the SilverLine Project and the government’s development agenda. The first row erupted when the CPI(M) introduced Dr Joseph as its candidate from the premises of a Church-run hospital and in the presence of Catholic priests. This led to the Opposition painting the cardiologist as a “Church candidate” but the Congress, fearing a backlash, did not push ahead with this line of attack.
In the final stages of the campaign, a row began over a morphed video wrongly attributed to Dr Joseph. The CPI(M) alleged that Congress was behind the “heinous game”, and a few Congress leaders were arrested for allegedly circulating the video. The Opposition party claimed that the video had come from CPI(M) circles and Satheesan dared the police to arrest those who had uploaded the clip.
Addressing voters on Friday, Vijayan hit out at the BJP for trying to get Christian votes even though, he alleged, the Sangh Parivar targets the community. He recalled incidents such as the Kandhamal violence of 2008 and the murder of Graham Staines’ family in 1999. “They (BJP) are wolves in sheep’s clothing,” the CM added.
Lashing out at the Congress over the video controversy, Vijayan said, “People will give a fitting reply to the Congress for the malicious campaign.’’
In response, Satheesan accused the CPI(M) and the CM of bargaining with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), which is the political wing of the Popular Front of India, over the past month. “All the ministers of the Vijayan cabinet have been after communal outfits in the constituency. We do not solicit the votes of communal elements. We will win with secular votes,’’ he added.
Referring to the video controversy, Satheesan said the government was afraid of revealing those who were actually behind the morphed clip. “Why can’t the government find those who uploaded the video? I am sure CPI(M) men were behind it,’’ he alleged.
BJP and ‘apolitical’ votes
The BJP, which is not expected to pose any substantial challenge to the Left and the Congress, focussed on splitting the Christian vote during the campaign. It labelled both the CPI(M) and the Congress as “anti-Christian” parties that are soft on “Muslim fundamentalism”.
The party backed senior politician P C George after he was arrested over an alleged hate speech against Muslims. George, a former legislator of regional Christian party Kerala Congress (M), extended support to the BJP on the last day of campaigning on Sunday and hit out at Vijayan. The state government, he added, put him in jail but had not taken action against those who had allegedly made derogatory remarks about Christians and Hindus.
Another factor that may affect the poll outcome is the votes of “apolitical” outfit Twenty20, which was floated years ago by garment major KITEX. The outfit has announced a tie-up with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) but the front is not contesting the by-poll. In the 2021 Assembly election, Twenty20 secured 13,800 votes while the AAP had bagged 9,300 votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls from the Assembly segment, which is a part of the Ernakulam parliamentary seat.