Road to 2024 | Modi good, Modi plus better: BJP takeaway from Gujarat, Himachal Assembly polls

There are no two ways about Modi’s contribution to the BJP’s seventh successive win in Gujarat where, despite the near consensus that the party was set to return to power, the PM left nothing to chance, campaigning intensively, evoking his “unbreakable emotional bond” with his native state, and underlining that his prestige was at stake as the Opposition was looking for “a chance to humiliate Modi”.

A senior party leader said that while the PM lent his weight to the Himachal campaign as well, underlining the years he had spent in the state, the difference between Gujarat and the hill state was stronger anti-incumbency, a more spirited opposition and, of course, the absence of any one “polarising” factor.

The Congress’s promise of reverting to the old pension scheme was also a key factor. Many in the BJP argue that the party cannot commit to a measure it has opposed elsewhere. Moreover, given the state’s finances, it is a challenge. One-fifth of the state’s revenue expenditure is now spent on paying the pensions bill. The rising committed expenditure of the state — interest payments, expenditure on salaries and wages, and pensions — means that less revenue is available with the state government for development expenditure. In 2020-21, only about one-third of the state’s total revenue receipts were available for developmental outlay.

The loss in the Delhi MCD polls is also being seen along the same lines as Himachal – anti-incumbency, the lack of a robust organisation and micromanagement failing to translate Modi’s appeal into votes. The fact that the BJP was still not wiped out as predicted, but gave the Aam Aadmi Party a scare, is being seen as the result of timely intervention by the leadership to revamp the Delhi organisation.

In Gujarat, Union Home Minister Amit Shah was stationed for weeks ahead of the elections while, since taking over the reins of the state unit in July 2020, Gujarat BJP president C R Paatil carried out several changes that proved crucial. According to sources, under him, the state BJP managed to get 8.2 million verified members on its database, with their Aadhaar card details, voter identity card photos and other contact details. These details were shared with call centres. “That is the kind of micromanagement that went in,” said a party source.

Specific programmes were targeted at specific communities, with Union ministers, Chief Ministers and senior leaders taking charge.

In the coming days, the BJP headquarters is set to see a number of brainstorming sessions over how to replicate the Gujarat strategy in the Assembly election-bound states and then to the general election. On Monday, BJP leaders were in Delhi from Tripura, which goes to polls early next year, as part of that.

However, some leaders in the BJP are also asking whether the party’s governance and development plank still ultimately needs a Hindutva or identity politics push. They cite UP as an example. “Despite the party deciding not to harp on polarising issues in the UP elections, but to focus on the developmental and welfare initiatives of the Yogi Adityanath government, the Chief Minister’s hardline image and the Ram Mandir issue were palpable issues. They could not be hidden,” a senior leader said.

Meanwhile, in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, drumbeat is getting louder on the remaining contentious issues on the Sangh Parivar’s agenda, including the Uniform Civil Code.