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Journalism of Courage
In 2013, in the elections to the 40-member Mizoram Assembly, the then incumbent Congress had swept the state, winning 34 seats. In the 2018 polls in the state, however, the Congress was routed as its tally plunged to just 5 seats.
In the recent Mizoram polls, the Congress diminished further as it finished at fourth position with just 1 seat, behind the second runner-up BJP that won two seats.
Mizoram was the last of four Northeastern states which went to the polls this year – the others being Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland – with altogether 220 Assembly seats up for grabs, of which the Congress could win just 9 seats.
Apart from a lone seat in Mizoram, the Congress won five seats out of 60 in Meghalaya, three seats out of 60 in Tripura, while it drew a blank in Nagaland.
The grand old party was considered a pre-eminent player in Northeast politics till the last decade. As it fell out of public favour in state after state, the Congress government in Mizoram, led by five-term CM Lal Thanhawla, seemed to be the only thread with which the party was holding on to power in the region. However, in the 2018 Mizoram polls, not only was the Congress replaced by Mizo National Front (MNF), a BJP-led NDA ally, the former was reduced to third position with 5 seats.
The Zoram’s People Movement (ZPM) had started as a common platform of six small regional parties and civil society groups in 2017. The ZPM was yet to be recognised as a party during the 2018 polls. So, then there were 38 Independent candidates backed by this common platform, of whom eight were elected as the MLAs, making it the second-largest presence in the House.
This time, the Lalduhoma-led ZPM won 27 seats to oust the Zoramthanga-headed MNF from power, which got 10 seats. This outcome paints a grim picture for the Congress, given that until 2013 Mizoram politics had been a bipolar contest between the party and the MNF. The ZPM’s rise has now turned it into a triangular affair, which would make the Congress’s bid to regain lost ground a more uphill task.
The Congress’s vote share in Mizoram has dropped from 44.36% in 2013 to 29.98% in 2018, down to 20.82% this time. In contrast, the BJP, which has traditionally been a marginal player in the Christian majority state, has been growing, increasing its tally from 1 seat in 2018 to 2 seats now.
In several elections in the region in recent years, large sections of voters have rallied round either the regional parties or the BJP, resulting in the marginalisation of the Congress in every state barring Assam, where the latter continues to be the principal Opposition.
The Congress’s decline in these states has largely been driven by the exits of influential party leaders and lack of fresh entrants to make up for these losses. This coupled with a public tendency to back the party in power at the Centre and its allies in their states has made the situation more daunting for the Congress.
After Narendra Modi-led BJP came to power at the Centre, the first state which saw a mass desertion of the Congress leaders was Arunachal Pradesh, where in 2016 more than two-thirds of 42 Congress MLAs, led by Pema Khandu, crossed over to the BJP. In the 2019 polls, an enfeebled Congress was able to win only 4 out of 60 seats.
In 2016, the first BJP government was formed in Assam, fuelled largely by several influential Congress leaders jumping ship, which include Himanta Biswa Sarma, the current CM. The BJP’s rise in the state was mainly at the expense of the Congress, which slided from 78 seats out of 126 in the 2011 polls to 26 seats in 2016 and to 29 seats in 2021.
In the 2017 Manipur elections, the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, but the BJP thwarted its bid to form the government by stitching up a ruling alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF). The BJP, which did not have a single MLA in the state earlier, had several Congress defectors among its winning candidates including N Biren Singh, the current CM. In the 2022 election, the Congress was reduced to just 5 seats in the state.
In Meghalaya too, the Congress was the singe largest party after the 2018 polls with 21 MLAs,
but the NPP-led alliance ruled the state. In 2021, 12 of the Congress MLAs defected to the Trinamool Congress. Left with almost no known faces, the Congress fell back on debutant candidates in the 2023 polls and won five seats.
In Nagaland, the Congress has had a long losing streak after coming to power in 1996. The emergence of the Naga People’s Front in 2002 and its alignment with the BJP stripped the Congress of its leading position in the state. The subsequent rise of Neiphiu Rio’s NDPP and its alliance with the BJP further pushed the Congress to the margins, reducing its tally to zero in the 60-member state Assembly in the last two elections.
Facing multiple challenges ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress as well as the Opposition INDIA bloc do not have any major allies in Northeast. On the other hand, the BJP has a slew of coalition partners across the region.
