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Journalism of Courage
The result of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats will set the stage for political churning in the state where Assembly elections are scheduled to be held later this year.
Though the BJP managed to split the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena in the past two years, perceptibly weakening the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, the ticket distribution process was far from being a smooth-sailing process.
Here are five things to watch out for in Maharashtra on Tuesday:
A test for BJP
The split of parties coupled with the sharp Maratha versus OBC polarisation will be decisive as far as the BJP’s performance goes. The ruling Mahayuti alliance has set an ambitious target of winning 45 of the 48 seats, with a vote share of over 50%, but has had to deal with challenges such as agrarian distress in the run-up to the polls.
In 2019, the BJP won 23 of the 25 seats it contested in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, which won 18 seats. To retain the role of “big brother” in its new alliance, it will have to retain its seat share. The Lok Sabha results may also lead to a correction of socio-political fault lines in the organisation ahead of the Assembly elections.
Who will be the ‘real’ Sena?
Though Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s party has been recognised by the Election Commission (EC) as the Shiv Sena, the outcome on Tuesday will be decisive in proving which of the two Sena parties can lay claim to the undivided party’s legacy. The Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) are in direct contest in 13 constituencies.
Tough test for Pawar
The results will also decide the fate of NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar whose position was left weakened after the coup carried out by his nephew and Maharashtra Deputy CM Ajit Pawar. In Baramati, Pawar’s daughter and incumbent MP Supriya Sule is up against Ajit’s wife Sunetra Pawar and its result will determine the public perception of who the real NCP boss is.
The Maratha factor
All eyes will be on the Marathwada region, where the Maratha agitation led by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil was the most intense. Jarange-Patil’s clarion call to the community to teach the “betrayers of Marathas” a lesson — directed at Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis — has the potential to affect the BJP’s chances. On the other hand, the ruling alliance must also ensure that its OBC voter base, which is seemingly against the Marathas following the stir and the government’s decision to grant reservation to the community, is not eroded. The alliance that ensures this balance is likely to emerge on top.
Reshaping of alliances
In the run-up to the polls, both the MVA and the Mahayuti alliances faced internal bickering over a range of issues, especially seat-sharing. Reports of unrest within the BJP over Shinde’s alleged high-handedness and its own leaders’ admission that the party was left in a Catch-22 situation after the split factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP joined the NDA.
The MVA too faced considerable hurdles with the Congress having to rework its strategy to accommodate Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Congress leaders said the party would analyse if the MVA had worked or not after the elections. How both the alliances shape up after the Lok Sabha elections is among the things to watch out for.
