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Journalism of Courage
The BJP might have scored another success against political rivals with a split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). But the larger question confronting the state unit is about expanding the organisation’s electoral footprint across Maharashtra. Three parties in the ruling coalition means the BJP will have to settle for less, when it comes to seat-sharing for the state’s 288 Assembly and 48 Lok Sabha constituencies.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and NCP were locked in direct contests on eight seats. Except for Baramati where Supriya Sule of the NCP won, all the seats were won by BJP.
In the simultaneously held Assembly polls, out of the 288 seats in the state, there were direct contests between the BJP and NCP on 56 seats. Of these, the BJP won 34 seats and the NCP 22.
The message being repeatedly hammered to the cadre, in private and public meetings, by the top leadership of the BJP in the state, is they should focus on 2024, which will be a do-or-die battle for the party. They have been told that their target is to ensure PM Narendra Modi’s victory, with a tally surpassing the 2019 one of 303. To attain this target, they have to accommodate other parties — the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and now the Ajit Pawar-led NCP. That of course hurts the prospects and projection of the BJP’s cadre at the grassroots.
In a candid admission, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “The karyakartas’ concerns are understandable. But sometimes we have to work out strategies keeping the larger picture in mind.” Under the Modi-Shah regime, nobody within the organisation is willing to challenge these decisions in Maharashtra. But privately, many admit the party’s previously declared ‘shat pratishat bhajap (100% BJP)’ strategy has been put on the backburner.
A Union minister, requesting anonymity, said, “To accomplish our short gains, we have drifted from our basics.” In a cadre-based party, such politics of make-or-break could prove to be a gamble.
State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The BJP is the single-largest party in Maharashtra and the Centre. But we are not stopping here. We are relentlessly striving to enhance our vote bank from 30% to 50%. To achieve that, we’ll have to adopt multi-pronged strategies, including drawing rivals to our fold.”
All the top state leaders have underplayed the unrest within the cadre arising from the import of candidates from outside the BJP and of compromising with allies. The state party unit has been categorically told to convey to the cadre that all developments that have taken place, including the NCP split, have the approval of the big two — Modi and Amit Shah.
State Cabinet Minister Girish Mahajan from Jamner Assembly seat had beaten Sanjay Garud of the NCP in a direct contest in 2019. Today, even he was heard justifying the BJP-NCP alliance. “When established leaders like Ajit Pawar along with two-thirds of the NCP’s MLAs join hands with the BJP, it shows their trust in PM Modi’s leadership… We will emerge stronger together — Shiv Sena, BJP and NCP,” Mahajan said.
The BJP’s political managers say that out of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, the party had won 23 twice — in 2014 and 2019. “Our alliance partner, the then undivided Shiv Sena lead by Uddhav Thackeray, had bagged 18 seats. Now, with Shiv Sena (Shinde), BJP and NCP, we will work to win all 48 seats. In the state Assembly, the maximum seats the BJP had ever won was 122 in 2014 (when it had contested on its own) and 105 in 2019 (when it had the undivided Shiv Sena as ally). It had subsequently won the by-election for Pandharpur, taking its tally to 106 seats. Which means there are 166 seats that remain a challenge. With Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, the BJP has set its eye on optimising its electoral gains and take the tally to beyond 230.”
In Ajit Pawar, the BJP sees an aggressive Maratha leader who it believes would be able to help them sweep the economically prosperous sugar belt of Western Maharashtra, which has always been the NCP’s bastion. The region has 11 Lok Sabha seats and 70 Assembly seats.
Lok Sabha seats (8):
Jalgaon, Bhandara Gondia, Dindori, Mumbai North East, Baramati, Ahmednagar, Beed and Madha.
Outcome: BJP 7; NCP 1
Assembly seats (56):
Sindhkheda, Jalgaon City, Amalner, Chalisgaon, Jamner, Karanja, Hinganghat, Wardha, Katol, Hingna, Tumsar, Arjuni Morgaon, Tirora, Aheri, Kinwat, Pusad, Jintur, Badnapur, Bhokardhan, Gangapur, Nashik (East), Nashik (West), Vikramgad, Murbad, Ulhasnagar, Airoli, Belapur, Shirur, Daund, Indapur, Baramati, Maval, Bhosari, Vadgaon-Sheri, Khadakwasla, Hadapsur, Akole, Kopargaon, Shevgaon, Rahuri, Shrigonda, Karjat-Jamkhed, Georai, Majalgaon, Ashti, Kaij, Parli, Ahmadpur, Udgir, Pandharpur, Malshiras, Phaltan, Wai, Satara and Shirala.
Outcome: BJP 34; NCP 22
