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Journalism of Courage
In the Lok Sabha elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance of Opposition parties dealt the ruling Mahayuti alliance a blow by winning 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. Assembly-segment data, however, shows that the elections are likely to be a close call, with the winning margin in 31 Assembly segments less than 5,000 votes.
The analysis of voting trends from the Lok Sabha elections shows that the MVA led in 158 Assembly segments, a number well past the majority mark of 145 in the 288-member Assembly. The Mahayuti too is seemingly a formidable contender with leads in 125 segments. While the gap between the two alliances is 33, the 31 low-margin constituencies, from Andheri West and Malad West in Mumbai to Dahanu in Palghar and Majalgaon in Beed, hold the potential to sway the outcome in favour of either side. Even the closely contested seats seem to be equally distributed between the two alliances. While the MVA secured a lead in 16, the Mahayuti was not far behind with leads in 15.
Though voting patterns in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls differ largely, the Lok Sabha polls offer the closest comparison as the political landscape of the state has changed following the splits in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The MVA consists of the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar). The BJP along with its allies Shiv Sena and NCP make up the Mahayuti.
Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are hoping to capitalise on the sympathy generated for them post the split even as the Congress has seemingly regained its footing in the state. On the other hand, the Mahayuti has been propelled by the recent Haryana win and is also banking heavily on the sops that the state government has announced in recent weeks.
For the MVA, the Assembly polls provide an opportunity to build on the recent electoral success while for the Mahayuti, they are a test of its schemes and programmes, including the Ladki Bahin Yojana on which the alliance has centred its campaign. In all, the polls have the potential to not only alter Maharashtra’s political landscape again but also affect the broader contours of national politics.
