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A day before counting in the Karnataka Assembly elections, political parties in the state, including the BJP, were busy discussing their post-results strategy. The BJP, which contested an election without an established chief ministerial face for the first time, is hoping to become the first ruling party in 38 years to return to power. But, most of the exit polls have kept the Congress in the lead.
On Friday, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai Bommai, his predecessor B S Yediyurappa, and other BJP leaders met in Bengaluru. A party source said they discussed the current situation and how to communicate it to the high command. A major thorn on the BJP’s side in the run-up to the elections was the allegations of corruption that the Opposition, especially the Congress, levelled against the Bommai government, and it may end up damaging its chances of being voted back.
Here are the five things to look out for on counting day from the BJP’s perspective:
1) If the party returns to power, it is most likely to stick with Basavaraj Bommai. But the CM may face a strong challenge from V Somanna if the Housing Minister manages to take down Siddaramaiah in the Varuna constituency in Mysuru. It will also likely mark the end of the party’s dependence on Yediyurappa.
2) If the BJP ends up being the single-largest party but does not get a clear majority, it will try to get the Janata Dal (Secular) or independents on board. According to BJP insiders, state party leaders have already started reaching out to JD(S) and Independents it thinks will win to set the ground for any post-poll manoeuvre.
3) If the BJP gets fewer than 80 seats and the JD(S) fewer than 25, the party will have no option but to sit in the Opposition. A loss on that scale will likely prolong Yedyiyurappa’s role in state politics, upending its central leadership’s plans to ease out the old guard. It will also likely pave the way for the former CM’s son B Y Vijayendra to play a more central role in the party. In the event of a loss, Bommai, like his father S R Bommai, will end up being a CM who served in the office for less than two years.
4) The results will reveal if the Bommai government’s decision to scrap the 4% reservation for backward Muslims and distribute it among the dominant Lingayat and Vokkaliga castes will work or if it will end up failing. The Lingagyat community, traditionally the BJP’s biggest vote base in the state, is unhappy over the sidelining of Yediyurappa and the exit of senior Lingayat leaders such as Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi.
Though the community wanted the BJP to announce that the next CM would be a Lingayat if it returns to power, the party’s senior leadership was not keen to do so publicly before polls as it did not want to alienate other groups. Moreover, the BJP government has not fulfilled the quota demand of the Panchamasali Lingayats, a key sub-sect.
5) The BJP turned on the heat on the Congress and the JD(S) after Prime Minister Narendra Modi hit the campaign trail, helping the ruling party make up some of the ground lost in the initial days of campaigning because of a slow start. If the PM’s campaign push had any effect on the party’s fortunes will be something political observers look out for on Saturday.
Though the ruling party is confident of crossing the halfway mark, state minister R Ashok has hinted that the party has a fall-back option in place and will execute the plan if necessary. “This year, we are going to win the cup (form the government). We will win the majority. If we don’t, we will start operations and don’t ask how and when. We will discuss with our central and state leaders about ‘Plan B’ on what to do,” he told reporters on Friday.
A BJP legislator said if the Congress manages to win 125 seats, it will be tough for the party to manoeuvre itself to power.
