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“There was a total monopoly of one family on the Congress in Haryana,” said Kumari Selja as the unexpected results in the state took many, including the Congress, by surprise, paving the way for the BJP to form a government for an unprecedented third time.
Selja, the former Union Minister and current Sirsa MP, did not name either Leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda or his son Deepender, the Rohtak MP. But it was clear whom she was referring to. “That is why we have reached this stage,” she said. “The people wanted the Congress this time. But the Congress became symbolised by only one family and this has been going on for the last 25 years and now there was a huge backlash.”
The backlash Selja spoke of was not only the response to the party’s over-reliance on the Hoodas — Bhupinder Singh Hooda was given a free hand in the distribution of party tickets, to the exclusion of others, was allowed to select 72 of 90 candidates. Selja, a Dalit, could not even get tickets for four of her main supporters and was not allowed by the high command to contest the Assembly elections though she wanted to.
Hooda also ruled out a tie-up with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and that backfired in three seats where the party polled more votes than the BJP’s victory margin.
The Hooda-Selja tussle is not new. What is new this time is the massive non-Jat consolidation that seems to have taken place under Hooda’s leadership. Many Dalits were apprehensive about the return of what they called “Jatshahi (Jat dominance)” and the “kharchi, parchi” system of giving jobs to favourites. The issue of corruption also came up repeatedly in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches.
The divide between Jats and non-Jats is nothing new. It has been a political reality since the days of former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal, and was responsible for the BJP victories in the state in 2014 and 2019. But this time, the Jats who were divided between the Congress, BJP, and Jannnayak Janta Party (JJP) in 2019, were seen to be consolidating more behind the Congress.
The Jats were vocal in expressing their angst against the BJP for not choosing a Jat CM, for trying to bring the three farm laws (repealed in 2021), and the wrestlers’ agitation against sexual harassment. Of the 29 Jat-dominated seats — as per the Trivedi Centre for Political Data at Ashoka University — the BJP won 18 seats, the Congress nine, and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) two constituencies. This did not necessarily mean that the Jats voted in large numbers for the BJP. It could also mean that non-Jats in these constituencies with a sizable Jat population (above 20%) polarised sharply and voted for the BJP.
The results also indicate that urban voters opted for the BJP, untouched either by the farmers’ protests, the wrestlers’ agitation, or the protests against the Agnipath scheme in the Jat community. Of the 25 urban seats in Haryana, which is 40% urban, the BJP won 18, the Congress five, and Independents two.
But this time, and this is significant, the BJP also made inroads in rural constituencies and this goes to show that a chunk of Dalits and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) may have gone back to the BJP in rural areas. Of the 65 rural seats, the BJP won 32, the Congress 30, and the INLD bagged two, while one went to an Independent. The 17 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) were divided almost equally between the two parties, with nine going to the Congress and eight to the BJP. The Congress’s vote was concentrated and it won by large margins, while the BJP’s votes were spread out.
The “J (Jat)” factor — they comprise 25% of the electorate — may have triggered the “D (Dalit)” response, with the latter who comprise 21% of the population becoming more conscious of their rights and less willing to have other groups ride roughshod over them. There is a likelihood that they struck back silently while the Jats were more vociferous in their support for change (and the Congress). The question that remains is if Dalits and OBCs moved back to the BJP, fearing Jat domination.
In the Lok Sabha polls, in which the Congress won five of the 10 constituencies, Dalits and OBCs had veered towards the Congress. And this was seen as one of the reasons why the BJP fell short of a majority on its own.
Selja’s unhappiness at not being given her due — she did not campaign for the party and “sat at home” for two weeks — was noted by her community. With factionalism coming to the fore, the Congress stock, it was said at the time, went down. When she attended a Rahul Gandhi rally along with Hooda, the situation seemed to stabilise. “Had she continued to sulk, the BJP would have won,” a Dalit in Sohna said days before polling. That eventually came to pass.
Many Dalits called for a “non-Jat CM” if the Congress returned to power. Selja may have become a symbol of Dalit anguish and the community’s growing refusal to be taken for granted. “We refuse to be treated like a trash army,” said a senior Dalit leader in the Congress.
The Haryana results need a deeper study to understand the message that the voters have tried to give: that those on the margins now want their place in the power structure and that the Congress has no option but to become an umbrella party again.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)
