AAP ahead in social media outreach, favoured by Delhi voters who decided late: Lokniti-CSDS survey

The BJP and the AAP left no stone unturned, deploying digital campaigns, on-ground canvassing and last-minute appeals to sway the voters. Prominent national leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, and former Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal all hit the streets of Delhi, actively campaigning, over the last month.

Ahead of the elections, a poster war was also seen between the AAP and BJP, with almost every billboard in the national capital plastered, and social media bombarded.

The Lokniti-CSDS Survey looked at the impact of the election campaign and party outreach on voter engagement.

Table 1: Party outreach and campaign visits.

The AAP was found to have the highest digital impact, reaching 67% of the voters, followed closely by the BJP at 64% (Table 1). This reflects the reliance on online strategies by all the major political parties to reach urban voters across age groups (Table 2).

The AAP had the highest outreach among younger voters (up to 25 years) at seven of every 10 voters (70%), followed closely by the BJP at close to two-thirds (64%).

Table 2: Digital outreach by age.

Door-to-door campaigning remained a crucial election strategy, with personal interactions and community influence vital in shaping voter opinion. The AAP and BJP again showcased almost equal efforts in this regard, with more than half the respondents acknowledging this approach adopted by the two major players.

In contrast, the weak campaign efforts of the Congress, in both digital outreach and canvassing, resulted in lower voter engagement with it as well as poor mobilisation of its supporters.

In the Delhi elections, timing was also key. While a little more than half of the voters made up their minds early, others waited until the final moments to decide whom to cast their vote for. One of the most significant advantages for the BJP was its strong support among early deciders. More than half the early deciders (53%) favoured the BJP.

These could well be the core voters who have remained loyal to the party, and who were behind it even before campaigning started. Those who decided during the campaign period comprised only one of every 10 voters (11%) and a majority among them favoured the AAP.

It is important to note that a little over one-third of the voters took the decision on whom to vote for at the last minute. They were more or less equally divided between the BJP and AAP, with the latter having a marginally higher share (Table 3).

Table 3: Timing of vote choice and voter preferences.

The AAP clearly could not overcome the BJP’s early lead, with the BJP’s winning formula proving to be a strong early voter base, an effective multi-channel campaign strategy, and successful last-minute voter persuasion.

Sinha and Yadav are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS.