Decode Politics: 5 likely reasons why Congress suffered Chhattisgarh setback

Despite dropping 22 MLAs, the party failed to trump the anti-incumbency on the ground. Nine ministers in the Bhupesh Baghel government lost. There are already murmurs of unhappiness with how Bhupesh Baghel ran the show. Congress insiders said workers were unhappy with Baghel since he listened to only a handful of people close to him and was inaccessible to many of them.

“Our party workers were not that happy and lacked enthusiasm, unlike BJP workers who worked hard to ensure the party’s manifesto promises reached every household,” said party spokesperson Vikas Vijay Bajaj.

Another Congress leader said, “Our workers were not satisfied. Their personal, regional work or even community-related work was not done. Not even a corporator listened to them, forget ministers. So, they lost enthusiasm. For example, the BJP announced Rs 12,000 annually for women and we offered Rs 15,000 and much more in the manifesto. But, unlike the BJP, our workers did not work hard to spread our manifesto promises. First, the slogan was ‘Bhupesh hai toh bharorsa hai (We trust Bhupesh)’, then ‘Sarkar hai toh bharosa hai (We trust the government)’. People got confused.”

Was infighting a factor?

The Congress high command stepped in around July and mediated a truce between Baghel and state minister T S Singh Deo, appointing the latter Deputy CM. But the fight between the two over the preceding five years over sharing the CM’s post proved costly and their differences proved to be a bridge too far. The division between the two leaders was reflected in ticket distribution, with party insiders claiming that some winnable candidates did not make the cut. Several Congress workers were even suspended for anti-party activities during campaigning.

Another example of fissures within the party was the shunting out of Mohan Markam as the state unit president in July. Markam, who is known to have differences with Baghel, made some internal changes in party positions that were subsequently reversed by All India Congress Committee (AICC) in-charge Kumari Selja in June. Three months earlier, Markam had alleged misappropriation in the District Mineral Fund in the Assembly that provided the BJP with ammunition to target the party.

Did ignoring non-farmer communities prove detrimental?

Even though the Baghel government spent Rs 1.75 lakh crore in welfare schemes and pro-farmer policies, it failed to regularise two lakh contractual jobs. The government started providing unemployment allowance in the last year but the terms and conditions left out a big chunk of the 10 lakh people who were supposed to get it. It also did not get around to banning liquor, a promise made to women who often vote more than men.

Baghel was also criticised for not spending much on infrastructure. This seemingly affected votes in the urban areas of Chhattisgarh such as Raipur, Durg, Bilaspur, Ambikapur, and Jagdalpur.

Were Adivasi issues ignored?

The Congress government was not aggressive in tackling issues concerning the Adivasi communities. In parts of Bastar, Christian tribals faced social boycott and attacks over the issue of religious conversion. While tribal Christians formed their party, called the Sarva Adi Dal, the vote of other Adivasis went to the BJP, smaller parties, and Independent Adivasi candidates.

In the tribal region of Surguja, all 14 Assembly seats that went to the Congress last time were flipped by the BJP. Among those who lost from the region was T S Singh Deo. In Bastar, the Congress won 11 of the 12 seats in 2018 and managed to win the last one in a bypoll. But on December 3 they lost eight of the constituencies, including Chitrakot where state Congress chief Deepak Baij was in the fray.

During BJP rule, all Class 3 and 4 jobs in tribal regions were reserved for Adivasis. But last year the Chhattisgarh High Court ruled against it and the BJP found a way to target the Baghel government, saying it did not do enough in the court. The killing of three Adivasis in Silver in south Chhattisgarh in 2022 and the subsequent protests against it and the protests against mining in Hasdeo in the northern part of the state also indicated underlying discontent among Adivasis.

Former Union Minister Arvind Netam, an 81-year-old tribal leader from Bastar who formed the Hamar Raj party that contested the elections, said, “The weakening of the PESA (Panchayats Extension to Scheduled Areas Act) law was a major issue. I have seen many chief ministers in my career but he (Baghel) was arrogant. You cannot pick up political advisors from the open market. They must be senior bureaucrats, even if retired. His deputy secretary Saumya Chaurasia was giving instructions to senior IAS officers.”

How big a factor was corruption?

Knowing well that Bhupesh Baghel was the Congress’s face in the elections, the BJP leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah consistently targeted him over corruption allegations against him and his administration.

People seen to be close to Baghel were booked, arrested or raided by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). A day before voting, on November 6, the BJP uploaded a video on its social media handles in which the prime accused in the Mahadev app case alleged that he paid Rs 508 crore “protection money” to Baghel. Apart from this, the Baghel government also faced allegations in the coal levy commission, illegal sale of liquor, and rice millers cases.