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Union Home Minister Amit Shah accused the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led state government of being involved in “love and land jihad” and alleged there is a presence of infiltrators in Jharkhand at a public meeting in Ranchi on Saturday.
Shah claimed that the infiltrators are marrying tribal women, buying land and usurping jobs meant for locals. He promised that if a BJP-led government comes to power after the forthcoming Assembly polls due in November-December, a “white paper” will be published on the demography of the state.
During the Lok Sabha election campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed the JMM-led government was “patronising infiltrators” in the northeastern Santhal Pargana area and alleged those infiltrators were grabbing land and putting women at risk.
State BJP leaders including chief Babulal Marandi, Godda MP Nishikant Dubey and state Leader of Opposition Amar Bauri have repeatedly claimed that the tribal population is decreasing in the Santhal Pargana area. However, the BJP has recently, at least in writing, shifted the debate from solely population decrease to the increase in the share of non-tribals’ population, especially Muslims, at the cost of tribals.
In a letter to Chief Minister Hemant Soren, Marandi on July 19 said, “Bangladeshi ghuspaith ke awaidh pravesh ke karan yahan ka samaaj apne astitiva aur sansadhan bachaane mein laga hai…Yahan tak ki Bangladeshi ghuspathiyaon dwara Adivasi samaj ki behenon ko lobh laalach awem dara dhamka ke jabran shaadi kar inki zameen ko kabza kar rahe hain (Due to the entry of Bangladeshi infiltrators, the tribal community is trying to save its existence and resources…Bangladeshis are taking over their land by forcing Adivasi women to marry them).”
Using the projected population figures for the years 2021 and 2031, Marandi claimed the growth of the Muslim population is higher than that of the tribal population in Santhal Pargana, and that in 2031, Muslims would surpass tribals in the area.
However, there is no clarity on the yardstick for population growth. Marandi in his letter said that in 1951, tribals in Santhal Pargana had a population share of 44.67%, which fell to 28.11% by 2011. Questioning the growth rates of Muslim and tribal populations, he said, “That day is not far when Santhalis in Santhal Pargana will become a minority, and Santhal Pargana will lose its identity.”
Without providing a source for the projected population data he cited, Marandi said in his letter that by 2021, the population of Santhal Pargana was estimated to be 86 lakh, of which Scheduled Tribes (STs) would account for 22.5 lakh or 26.2%, Muslims 21.5 lakh or 25%, and non-Muslims and non-tribals 42 lakh or 48.8%.
By 2031, Marandi said, Santhal Pargana’s population would grow to 1.04 crore, with the ST population growing marginally to 25 lakh or 24% of the region and the Muslim population increasing to 29 lakh or 27.9%.
“If the Muslim population increases at the rate at which it grew between 2001 and 2011, then the estimated population of Muslims will be more than the tribal population (by 2031), which is deeply worrying,” he wrote. He also asked the CM to form a Special Investigation Unit to “investigate the mystery behind the decreasing population of the tribals”.
Santhal Pargana, which comprises the Dumka, Jamtara, Godda, Sahebganj, Pakur and parts of Deoghar districts, has a majority Hindu population of 68% as per the latest available Census data from 2011. The Census was not held as scheduled in 2021, and there is no clarity about when it would be held.
Jyoti Prakash, assistant professor of economics at Ranchi University who published a research paper titled “A post-Independence demographic study of tribal population of Jharkhand”, had told The Indian Express earlier this year that the share of tribals in the total population is decreasing despite an increase in their absolute numbers. “It means that the tribal population share vis-a-vis non-tribals has decreased from 37% in 1951 to 26% in 2011 due to migration in search of jobs and displacement, among other factors.”
Another expert, who wished to remain anonymous, said that as per the data in Marandi’s letter, there is a slump in the population growth rate of tribal communities and an increase in the Muslim population growth rate between 1951 to 2011 in Santhal Pargana. Based on the trends over this 60-year period, the BJP leader had calculated the population estimates for 2021 and 2031.
However, the expert cautioned, “The exact reasons are subject to qualitative interpretations. For instance, the increasing trend in the rate of growth in Muslims may happen due to various reasons such as increase in the birth rate, inclusion of outside population irrespective of gender, less migration, and decreasing death rates, among others. Similarly, the slump in the population growth rate among the tribals could be due to various factors such as increasing death rate due to poor health conditions, migration, and decreasing birth rate, among others. Any interpretation should be made only after conducting a scientific study.”
The JMM-led coalition is targeting the Centre on this issue. Vinod Pandey, the JMM general secretary and spokesperson, said the Union Home Minister needs to be asked how infiltration is occurring, if at all.
“On the same stage where the Home Minister was sitting (on July 20), the BJP leaders were saying that there has been infiltration in the Santhal Pargana areas. The BJP (government at the Centre) is hiding its weakness and failure (in not protecting the borders) and passing it off as the JMM’s failure. This is unfortunate, as the state government wants the security to be increased in border areas, if at all there are infiltrators. However, it is clear that the BJP wants to do politics of Hindu-Muslim (by stoking tensions) before the elections,” Pandey said.
