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Journalism of Courage
Fifteen Rajya Sabha seats across three states are up for grabs on Tuesday. The Election Commission in January notified elections for 56 seats across 15 states that are set to fall vacant in April but elections are being held in only three states since in the remaining MPs were elected unopposed. Earlier projections had suggested that the composition of the Rajya Sabha was unlikely to change significantly, despite the BJP’s decisive Assembly election victories in three Hindi heartland states in December and the changing political equation in Bihar. But in Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, amid reports of cross voting, the polls may throw up a few surprises.
Heading into polling day, the ruling NDA had 109 MPs in the Upper House, 10 members short of the halfway mark in the 238 member Rajya Sabha. The Opposition INDIA bloc had 89 MPs.
Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of seats going to vote (10), followed by Maharashtra and Bihar (6 each), Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal (5 each), Karnataka and Gujarat (4 each), Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan (3 each), and Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Chhattisgarh (1 each).
As per the strength of the Assembly, in UP, the BJP and the principal Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) both originally had adequate numbers to send 7 and 3 members each to the Upper House respectively, but this changed with the BJP fielding Sanjay Seth as its eighth candidate. Now the result in 1 seat could be decided by cross-voting, and the BJP could end up picking 8 seats and the SP may be left with 2.
In Karnataka, 3 MPs from the Congress and 1 from the BJP are retiring. But after stitching up an alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular) and nominating 1 of its members for a Rajya Sabha berth, the BJP has ensured a contest among 5 candidates for four vacancies. The Congress, which has 134 MLAs, claims it also has the support of 3 Independents and that 2 BJP and several JD(S) MLAs are expected to vote for the Congress candidates. The BJP-JD(S) combine has 85 MLAs, five short of the 90 votes required to elect two MPs.
In Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress is in power with 40 MLAs after winning the 2022 Assembly polls, there is just 1 Rajya Sabha seat, vacated by the BJP’s J P Nadda. However, the discontent within the party meant that on Tuesday, there were reports of at least 9 MLAs cross voting.
While the Congress has fielded Abhishek Manu Singhvi, the Opposition BJP’s candidate is Harsh Mahajan.
Incidentally, with 25 MLAs, the BJP is nine votes short of the halfway mark in the 68-member Assembly.
Of the 56 MPs who are retiring, 28 are from the BJP and 10 are from the Congress. The BJP, which was expected to retain almost the same number of seats, may now win additional seats in UP and Himachal Pradesh. The Congress, which was initially projected to win 9 seats and possibly 1 more with the help of ally Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, is set to lose out in Himachal Pradesh.
