Disquiet in Congress over EVM blame, internal survey showed party was losing Lok Sabha gains in Maharashtra

These surveys clearly indicated that the Ladki Bahin Yojana of the Eknath Shinde government was gaining traction.

Indeed, a survey conducted in as many as 103 seats in October, less than four weeks before polling, showed that the MVA was losing the advantage it got in the Lok Sabha elections. According to this survey, accessed by The Indian Express, of the 103 “strong MVA seats,” MVA was ahead in only 44 as compared to the 54 it was ahead in during the Lok Sabha election.

In comparison, the BJP-led Mahayuti, ahead in 49 seats, was leading in 56 seats. In one seat, “others” were ahead and two seats were classified as “undecided.”

This survey concluded that Muslims seem to be the only category where the MVA had an absolute lead over the NDA. In all other segments, General, OBCs, SBC, SC, SEBC, ST, the Mahayuti was ahead of the MVA.

It also showed that the NDA led MVA in all age groups, the highest among the young voters. Of these 103 seats, the Congress contested in 52, the Shiv Sena (UBT) 28, NCP Sharad Pawar 21 and the CPM and the Samajwadi Party one each.

“We knew that we were dipping. Towards the end, we had a fair idea that they (Mahayuti) were ahead. But the scale of their victory and our defeat did surprise us,” said a Congress leader who had access to the surveys said.

One of the questions in the survey was “Are you aware of the Ladki Bahin Yojana.” An estimated 88 per cent of the 57,309 respondents answered in the affirmative. Eighty two per cent of the respondents said there was a beneficiary of the scheme in their family. And 17 per cent said their voting preference has changed because of the scheme.

“In one of the meetings held to finalise our manifesto, out strategist told us that the Ladki Bahin Yojana was gaining traction. He insisted that the MVA promise Rs 3000 monthly financial assistance to women as a counter. The Mayahuti had by then promised revising the Rs 1,500-per month instalment under Ladki Bahin to Rs 2,100 per month,” a leader present in the meeting said.

“The leadership knew that the MVA was struggling to sustain the Lok Sabha gains…that among the women voters…the support for the Mahayuti was on the rise…the data was before the leadership…but we are still blaming the EVMs. It suits both the state leaders and the national leadership. It is a face-saving explanation for both,” said a leader.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had won 13 seats in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena (UBT) 9 and the NCP Sharad Pawar 8. Together the MVA won 30 of the 48 seats.

Days before polling, the Congress also reached out to the soybean farmers, announcing that the MVA, if voted to power, would fix Rs 7,000 per quintal plus bonus for soybean. Sources in the Congress, however, said the party leadership is serious about launching a campaign calling for return of paper ballots. The Congress Working Committee, which is meeting Friday, would review the assembly election results and could pass a resolution taking forward its scepticism on EVMs.

This despite the fact that the Congress manifesto for the Lok Sabha elections just months ago had suggested a middle path which was acceptable to both EVM sceptics and believers. The manifesto had talked about two sources of trust. “We promise to restore the voters’ trust in the election process. We will amend the election laws to combine the efficiency of the electronic voting machine (EVM) and the transparency of the ballot paper. Voting will be through the EVM but the voter will be able to hold and deposit the machine-generated voting slip into the voter-verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT) unit. The electronic vote tally will be matched against the VVPAT slip tally,” the 2024 manifesto had said.