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Journalism of Courage
Since Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in 2000, the state has seen 15 years of BJP rule bookended by terms under the Congress.
After its creation, the Congress’s Ajit Jogi became the state’s first Chief Minister. But in its first Assembly election as a state in 2003, voters handed the BJP a majority in the 90-member Assembly, following which the party retained power in two consecutive polls, led by Raman Singh.
While the mineral-rich and heavily forested state saw a rise in its GDP in this time, in 2018, the Congress trounced the BJP, ending its 15-year rule.
While Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh also are bipolar states with the Congress and BJP in direct contest, Chhattisgarh differs in its significant tribal vote. Almost a third of the seats in the state are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs).
In southern Chhattisgarh, among the country’s last remaining Naxalite-Maoist strongholds, the fight against left-wing extremism (LWE) has been a recurring poll issue. Last year, as many as nine districts reported LWE-related violence, with Bijapur, Dantewada and Sukma among the worst affected.
Polling is scheduled to be held in two phases — 20 seats (largely concentrated in the south) on November 7, and the remaining 70 on November 17.
Parties and past four polls
In the state’s first three Assembly polls, the BJP and Congress maintained roughly the same seat tallies and vote shares.
In terms of vote share, 2013 was the most tightly contested election, with just 0.75% separating the two parties. The BJP, though, crossed the majority mark in terms of seats. Between 2003 and 2013, both parties’ vote shares rose at the cost of minor parties and Independents.
In 2018, though, Chhattisgarh bucked its pro-BJP trend, and the Congress won breaking the state’s record for seat tally and vote share.
2003 polls
With a 2.55% vote share separating it from the Congress, the BJP won the state’s first ever Assembly election. It got 50 seats with 39.26% of the votes, compared to the Congress’s 37 seats and 36.71% votes.
In the 1998 elections held to a unified Madhya Pradesh, prior to Chhattisgarh’s creation, the Congress had won led by CM Digivijaya Singh.
Ajit Jogi, a prominent Congress tribal leader, who took over as the first CM eventually lasted only till the first Assembly polls. Raman Singh, who became the CM in 2003, returned in 2008 and 2013.
Of the state’s 10 Scheduled Caste (SC) seats at the time, the Congress and BJP won four each. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won two seats, both reserved for SCs.
Of the state’s 34 ST seats, the BJP won 25 and the Congress 9.
2008 polls
The BJP managed a repeat performance, winning 50 seats like in 2003, but increasing its vote share marginally to 40.33%. The Congress, though, saw a bigger jump in vote share, rising nearly 2% from 2003 to 38.63%, but its seat tally only rose by one to 38.
The Raman Singh government’s welfare programmes and the state BJP’s strong organisation helped it beat anti-incumbency. Singh managed to avoid controversies and returned for a second term as CM.
Under Singh, Chhattisgarh stood first in the country in the implementation of the 20-point programme on the development of SCs and STs in 2006-07, a feat certified by the Congress-led government at the Centre. This was largely reflected in the party’s reserved seat tally, with the BJP winning five of the 10 SC seats and 19 of the 29 ST seats. The Congress managed four SC and 10 ST seats.
While the Congress won most of its seats in the northern part of the state, the BJP was dominant in the south where there is a large concentration of tribal seats.
2013 polls
The BJP marginally increased its vote share to 41.04% this time but saw its seat tally fall by one to 49. The Congress’s vote share again rose by almost 2% to 40.29%, but that translated to only one additional seat compared to 2013, taking the party’s tally to 39. Though the BJP won a majority again, and Raman Singh returned as the CM, it was the narrowest vote-share margin on record with just 0.75% separating the two parties.
While the BJP nearly swept the 10 SC seats, winning nine compared to just one for the Congress, the state’s ST seats saw a major reversal this time. The Congress lost out on SC and general category seats but made up for it by winning 18 of the 29 ST seats with the BJP reduced to 11.
Months before the election, almost the entire state Congress leadership was killed in a Naxal attack in the southern Sukma district’s Darbha valley. Among those killed were ex-Union minister V C Shukla, former state minister Mahendra Karma and Chhattisgarh Congress chief Nand Kumar Patel. Party leaders were visiting the district as part of a series of Congress yatras across the state when the insurgents struck.
For the election, 600 companies of central paramilitary forces were deputed to the state.
2018 polls
The Congress won in a landslide, winning a record-breaking 68 seats and 43.04% of the vote share. The BJP’s 2013 seat tally was more than halved to 15 seats and its vote share fell by 8% to 32.97%. Though Raman Singh was re-elected, all but one sitting BJP minister lost. Bhupesh Baghel, who led the Congress’s campaign as the state unit chief, became a five-time MLA from Patan and was chosen as the state’s CM.
Among the factors seen as behind the BJP’s defeat were unemployment, agricultural and rural distress and the Congress’s promise to ban liquor, which proved popular among tribal voters, especially women.
The Congress recorded a comprehensive victory in the reserved seats, winning seven SC and 25 ST seats, compared to the BJP’s two and three, respectively.
The elections were also notable for the debut of the Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), founded by former CM Ajit Jogi after he and his son Amit were expelled from the Congress for “anti-party activities”. The JCC won five of the 57 seats it contested and secured 7.61% of the vote share. Aside from Ajit, who won from the tribal Marwahi seat, his wife Renu also won. After Ajit’s death in 2020, his son Amit took over the party reins.
Among the notable Congress winners were Surguja royal and CM contender T S Singh Deo, former Union minister Charan Das Mahant, and former MP Tamradhwaj Sahu. Tribal leaders Mohan Markam and Deepak Baij also won. Markam was recently replaced by Baij as the party’s state president.
2019 Lok Sabha polls
In the general elections though, the Congress was unable to repeat its Assembly poll performance, winning just two of the 11 Lok Sabha seats despite securing 41.51% of the vote share. The BJP won nine seats and 51.44% of the vote.
