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Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Of the four states where votes will be counted on Sunday, the Congress, according to the exit polls, has an advantage in only these two states even as Rajasthan is expected to be a close contest and Madhya Pradesh is predicted to go the BJP’s way. In Chhattisgarh, the pollsters have predicted Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s return to a second straight term in power but with fewer seats.
For the Congress, the major challenge in the months leading up to the elections was the infighting in its camp that had continued to simmer underneath the surface. But with a few months to go, the party high command stepped in and tried to bridge the differences between Baghel and state minister T S Singh Deo, a contender for the top job five years ago, by promoting the latter to Deputy CM in June. But Singh Deo likely has not given up on his dream of becoming the CM. He told a news channel after the elections that he had not contested this time just to be an MLA and that the Congress high command would decide who would become the CM.
With the BJP building its campaign around the anti-corruption plank and targeting the Baghel government over a series of corruption allegations — from the Mahadev scam case in which the CM has been linked to the coal levy commission case and the rice millers case — the Congress dropped 22 MLAs this time to beat any sense of fatigue and anti-incumbency. The BJP, meanwhile, did not project any CM face and contested the election under a collective leadership. It will be hoping that its anti-corruption campaign will stick and propel it back to power.
The Congress based its re-election pitch on the government’s welfare schemes, including direct cash transfer and loan waiver, and regional Chhattisgarhia identity that was Baghel’s strategy to nullify the appeal of the BJP’s Hindutva politics. The BJP, meanwhile, also unveiled its set of welfare initiatives and promises even as it banked on Hindutva and the anti-corruption push.
In constituencies such as Kawardha, where riot scars are still fresh, the Opposition party played the Hindutva card to tap into any discontent against Congress candidate and state Law Minister Mohammad Akbar, while in Bastar it tried to make the narrative about alleged religious conversions of tribals.
The BJP tried to outdo the Congress on the welfare front, placing the top 20 “Modi guarantees” front and centre in its manifesto. But with promises such as loan waiver, better paddy prices, and free education for students up to post-graduation level, the Congress tried to go beyond the scope of the BJP’s promises.
Another interesting aspect of the Chhattisgarh election was the “bit players” who looked to spoil the chances of the bigger parties in several constituencies. From the BSP and the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), which were in an alliance, to the Janta Congress Chhattisgarh-Jogi (JCC-J) and the CPI, how these parties fare will be one to watch out for on Sunday.
1. Bhupesh Baghel vs Vijay Baghel (Patan): The CM contested against his distant nephew and Durg MP Vijay Baghel from Patan in Durg district. In 2018, Baghel defeated BJP’s Motilal Sahu by 27,125 votes. Vijay won the parliamentary election from Durg by 3.91 lakh votes. According to our ground report from the CM’s seat, jobs and adequate water supply are among the primary demands of the people of Patan.
2. T S Singh Deo vs Rajesh Agrawal (Ambikapur): For the Deputy CM, more than his constituency Ambikapur, the bigger task is ensuring that the Congress repeats its 2018 performance in the entire Surguja division and sweeps all 14 seats. But despite being ahead on Singh Deo’s turf, the party is facing several hurdles, with local residents flagging issues such as unemployment and the lack of quality education.
3. Raman Singh vs Girish Dewangan (Rajnandgaon): For the former CM, who was virtually absent from state politics for four years, a victory for him and the party may very well put him back in the conversation for the top job. In an interview to Neerja Chowdhury, Singh, when asked if he was interested in becoming CM again, said, “If the party gives me a chance inkar nahin hai (I won’t refuse). But from my side, agreh (bhi) nahin hai (I am not actively seeking it either).” Opposite Singh is Dewangan who is the chairman of the Mineral Development Corporation and one of the Congressmen who has faced Enforcement Directorate (ED) raids.
4. Deepak Baij vs Vinayak Goyal (Chitrakot): The Congress appointed Baij as the Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief in July as it needed a strong face from the tribal community ahead of the elections. Almost a third of Chhattisgarh’s seats (29 to be exact) are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) and that makes having a strong Adivasi face important for parties. For the Congress, it was also important since tribal anger against it and the BJP saw the Sarva Adivasi Samaj (SAS), an umbrella organisation of tribal groups in the state, float a political party named Hamar Raj. Baij contested from Chitrakot in Bastar against Goyal, a regional BJP leader.
5. Arun Sao versus Thaneshwar Sahu (Lormi): Sao, who could be one of the party’s choices for CM if it comes to power, replaced Vishnudeo Sai at the helm of the state BJP last year as the party wanted a strong OBC leader to counter the Congress that has the tallest backward classes leader in CM Baghel. The BJP leader contested against Sahu, who is the chairperson of the Chhattisgarh State Backward Classes Commission, from Lormi that had gone to Jogi’s JCC-J last time. The Sahus are the most dominant OBC group in the state.
