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Journalism of Courage
“Isn’t he the man?” Sonia Gandhi was said to have exclaimed at a meeting of the party’s Central Election Committee (CEC) earlier this week. There was a deathly silence in the room. “Aren’t there corruption charges against him?”
Sonia, according to reports, was referring to Shanti Dhariwal, whose name came up for consideration for a ticket for the coming Rajasthan polls. Rahul Gandhi interjected, saying he too had heard many complaints against Dhariwal in Kota, during his Bharat Jodo Yatra.
What was left unsaid was how Dhariwal’s name had made it to the table. Along with Mahesh Joshi and Dharmendra Rathaur, Dhariwal is seen as Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s man. In the September 2022 crisis, when Gehlot, once seen as a stout Gandhi family loyalist, scuttled the party high command’s plans to replace him with Sachin Pilot, the three had stood by the CM. The fact that the CEC was debating Dhariwal showed Gehlot’s growing clout in Rajasthan. By insisting that he be axed, the high command was trying to restore some of its battered authority.
While Dhariwal, Rathaur and Joshi may not make it to the final list, the fact that Gehlot’s intransigence against benching of MLAs has meant that the Congress has come out with only 33 names so far, out of 200, reflects this tussle. The lion’s share, by all accounts—and this is the significant part – will still be decided by the CM. There was little the Gandhi family could do in 2022 – or now.
As I travelled across Rajasthan earlier this week, this came up repeatedly, with more than one person marvelling at how Gehlot had “get away”, saying this exposed the Family’s “helplessness” as nothing else could have.
To many, it is a sign of Gehlot’s growing “strength” – including turning down an offer to stand for the Congress presidency and besting the BJP’s plan to topple his government in 2020. “Dekho, Dilli ko aankh dikha dee (See, he has shown up Delhi),” they said.
Others said Gehlot had demonstrated that he was the “Rajneeti ka jadugar (a magician of politics)”, who knew how to turn the tables on his opponents. Jadugar is a term often used for Gehlot, whose father practised magic.
This image of a “strong leader” holds Gehlot in good stead, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having set the template for a “dabangg, damdaar neta (fearless, powerful leader)”.
So, the Congress in Rajasthan today is not about Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge and, even, Sachin Pilot despite his following amongst youth and influence in several districts. The Congress is now seen as synonymous with Gehlot – with many suggesting he may buck anti-incumbency. Even BJP supporters tell me, “Inhone party ko takkar ki sthiti maen toh la hee diya hai (He has made it a contest for sure).”
A Jat farmer in Nehron ki Dhani village in Sikar district says: “Normally, by the time the elections are declared, we know which way the wind is blowing… This time there is going to be a fight.”
“The Congress is likely to win 70-80 seats,” says a BJP supporter in Sikar town. “There is a 10% chance that the Congress may just scrape through,” adds a political observer in Jaipur.
A 32-year-old hotel employee who says he will vote for the BJP also acknowledges Gehlot’s “good work in health and education”. “But on the other side is rashtravaad (nationalism). I will choose rashtravaad.”
A street vendor who sells baked goods from a cart blames Modi for the rise of big retailers. “Hamare pet pe laat padhi hai (We have taken a hit). This time, I will not vote for Modi.”
The sense that Gehlot may have stemmed the Congress slide is a change from last year, when the party’s defeat was seen as a given. Even Congressmen then talked of internal surveys giving the party 20-25 seats.
In 2018, the Congress’s lead had been narrow, getting just 99 seats (2 short of a simple majority) to the BJP’s 72. The vote share difference between the parties was just above 1%. Within a few months, the BJP had sent the Congress packing in the Lok Sabha polls, winning 24 of the 25 seats in the state, with ally RLP taking 1.
That may see a repeat, many said. “In 2024, Rajasthan will go for Modi again. The BJP won’t get less than 22-23 seats,” says a 28-year-old working at the Secretariat in Jaipur. “We are happy and will vote for the Congress in the Assembly. But in the Lok Sabha elections, we will vote for Modi.”
Apart from the image of being a leader who can get the better of his opponents, Gehlot’s social welfarism push in the past year, taking a leaf out of Modi’s book, seems to be paying dividends.
On the other side, the BJP brass has been reluctant to project its own most popular face, Vasundhara Raje, who still commands the allegiance of many BJP MLAs and has mass appeal. Leaders talk of the party grooming another royal, the chiffon-clad Diya Kumari (the daughter of Maharaja Bhawani Singh of the erstwhile princely state of Jaipur), giving her the safest BJP seat to contest from—hoping to create a Rajput-OBC-SC/ST base.
On Saturday, the BJP’s second list evened the scales a bit, by accommodating some Raje loyalists.
The question which continues to tantalise many in Rajasthan is this: If denied her due by the BJP, will Raje help Gehlot “internally”? The Congress CM claims Raje did this in 2020 too, when Pilot threatened to bring down his government.
“Donon (political) behen-bhai hain (They are political siblings),” quips a Meena youth in Dausa.
On Thursday, Gehlot rested any remaining doubts about his political ambitions by suggesting that he was very much in the race for CM, saying while he wanted to leave the post, it would not leave him.
Clearly, as the centre in the Congress has weakened, the balance of power is shifting to powerful state satraps. The Gandhi family has learnt to live with it, at least in Gehlot’s case – as long as it can bring votes and other benefits for the party.
The rest can follow.
