Dalit factor has Congress on tenterhooks

These elections are considered crucial for the future prospects of both given that the strengths of the three parties rest precariously in the current House. While the Congress was earlier the single largest party with 80 seats out of 288, it is now two behind the Sena which leads the BJP by a bare half dozen seats.

The outcome will determine the strength of respective parties in the Maharashtra Legislative Council and add or reduce their members in the Rajya Sabha, elections to which will follow in the third week of June.The Congress has had to let most of its seats fall vacant due to the election of the sitting MLAs to theLok Sabha at the general elections in February 1998. It did not expect to sweep all.

This time over, the Congress is wary of its chances as it is uncertain of continued support of the Dalit and Muslim communities that helped it achieve an unexpected windfall and created panic in the saffron camp in the Lok Sabha outcome.

The Dalit equations stand to change now precisely because the Congress was not willing to share any of its seats with the Republican Party of India or the Samajwadi Party for the by-polls rationalising that all these seats belonged to the Congress and that it was unconventional to hand over constituencies with sitting MLAs to political allies. Again, the ruling partners have campaigned to drive a wedge between the Congress and the Dalits, leaving the Samajwadi Party’s base, mostly restricted to the metropolis, given that none of the byelections are in Mumbai and its environs.

For Sena, the elections are crucial since it could enforce an early withdrawal of the temporary politicalretirement of Sena chief Bal Thackeray to contribute his personal rapport with the electorate, which the Sena sees as imperative. (Thackeray had pledged to stay away from affairs of state for at least three months till the end of June 1998.)

Says a senior BJP minister, “We have had no choice but to once again rely on his charisma. If we decide to do without him we could be in trouble. We might take on the Congress single-handed but not when it is clearly in an alliance with the RPI and the SP. Splitting at this juncture would be suicidal.”

This statement contradicts the BJP state executive’s earlier resolution to rely more on its resources at all future elections instead of entrusting all to Thackeray, a strategy they blamed for their smashing defeat at the Lok Sabha polls. It also exposes the party’s dilemma given that there are `rebel’ BJP candidates contesting against Shiv Sainiks in certain constituencies which the Sena regards as its turf.

For the moment, however, the Sena, wracked by its owninternal dissensions, is holding its fire against the BJP. Meanwhile, tensions in Nagpur (nearby Ramtek is on the byelection list) over the desecration of a statue of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar, has brought forth another precarious situation not just for the ruling alliance but also the Congress.

Outwardly, though, party leaders are playing it confident. “We will win all our eight seats, we hope to wrest the ninth and will be happy to win the tenth,” they say. But they are realistic enough to admit that they have few achievements of their own and still rely on the Sena-BJP government’s shortfalls to do the trick.

The ruling alliance, for its part, is afraid that might just about come true. Only the results will show if their divide and rule strategy has succeeded.

The numbers:An electoral college of 18,39,407, including 9,05,725 women, would decide the fate of 48 candidates who are contesting by-elections to ten seats in the Legislative Assembly.

By-elections to Dahanu (ST), Ramtek, Biloli, Singnapur,Kannad, Akkalkot, Rahuri, Mulshi, Satara and Kagal — was necessitated following the death of two members of the Assembly and resignation of eight others.

A total of 2576 polling stations have been set up for the polls which has Mulshi and Satara witnessing a direct contest between Congress and Shiv Sena-BJP combine, State’s Chief Electoral Officer, D K Sankaran, told a press conference here this evening.

The Election Commission has appointed a general observer and an expenditure observer in each of these constituencies. The model code of conduct, which came into force from April 22 last, would continue till the completion of election process on June 10, Sankaran said. Counting would be held on June 5.