PM Modi congratulates: ‘Had a great conversation with friend President Trump’

Sources said President-elect Trump told Prime Minister Modi during their phone call that “he considers him and India a true friend”.

Earlier in the day, as soon as Trump’s victory became certain, Modi, in a post on X, said, “Heartiest congratulations my friend Donald Trump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.”

Trump’s comeback has come at a time when India is looking at four years of a fair amount of continuity in the US administration, with some doses of uncertainty and unpredictability that he brings to the table.

But Trump’s victory has not surprised New Delhi. South Block had anticipated that a close and narrow contest meant that he was ahead of Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris by a fair margin.

For New Delhi, Trump White House 2.0 means another four years of hard negotiations on trade and immigration, of standing up to the Chinese challenge, very clear-eyed on Pakistan’s role in terrorism, and reluctance to speak on the human rights record in India.

And that could also mean – at least, South Block hopes – that the current US administration’s emphasis on the alleged plot against Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, leader of the banned Sikhs for Justice, will be reduced.

“While we have no doubt that the US judicial process will go through the hoops, a Trump 2.0 will not be gung ho about protecting pro-Khalistan separatist figures on US soil,” a source said.

South Block sources are mindful of the US process and the separation of powers, as well as the temptation of the Trump team to use this as leverage to gain concessions on tariffs or something else in return. “But, one thing is for sure: Trump will not be backing these separatist elements,” the sources said.

Officials point to Trump’s four years when India-US ties had blossomed after two US Presidents before him had pushed bilateral ties to a new level. That was the success of Trump 1.0 that Prime Minister Modi referred to in his congratulatory message.

While George W Bush opened the doors with the historic Indo-US nuclear deal, virtually marking the beginning of the end of the technology denial regime, Barack Obama pledged, for the first time, that he looked forward to a reformed United Nations Security Council with India as a permanent member.

And then came Trump under whose watch the US administration declared China a strategic threat and rival. This was music to the ears of the Indian establishment which had been raising the red flag on China’s not-so-peaceful rise, and Obama had undertaken a half-hearted initiative, the Pivot.

Trump’s view of China under Xi brought India and the US closer than ever before. His push led to the revival of the Quad in 2017, which Biden elevated to the level of leaders in 2020, and that is expected to grow.

China became the “strategic glue” for Indo-US ties while the convergence of technology, capital and aspiration for opportunities in jobs and education was the natural binding factor.

Officials who have interacted with Trump recall a President who ensured that hurdles in defence cooperation were removed – by signing the foundational agreements in 2018 and 2020.

The two countries signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) which, along with the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016 (during Obama’s tenure) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, completed a troika of “foundational pacts” for deep military cooperation between the two countries.

The strengthening of the mechanisms of cooperation between the two militaries must be seen in the context of an increasingly aggressive China which threatens a large number of countries in its neighbourhood and beyond, and which has been challenging several established norms and aspects of international relations.

Amid the ongoing standoff on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, India and the US intensified under-the-radar intelligence and military cooperation at an unprecedented level, especially since June 2020 when Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan valley.

These conversations facilitated information-sharing between security, military and intelligence agencies of the two countries, including the sharing of high-end satellite images, telephone intercepts and data on Chinese troops and weapons deployment along the LAC.

This is expected to continue with the Trump administration in the White House.

For New Delhi, this intense engagement between the Modi government and the Trump administration ensured robust US support for India’s fight against terrorism. It was evident after the Pulwama terror attack in February 2019, leading to the designation of Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist under United Nations Security Council resolution 1267 and the manner in which Pakistan was put on the Financial Action Task Force grey list.

While Trump was very critical and hard-nosed on Pakistan, New Delhi will now be watching his moves closely given that the US strategic imperative of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is over.

What will bother New Delhi is the issue of trade and tariff issues, and the issue of immigration. Trump feels that India is a high tariff country, and wants better tariffs and a more predictable regime to conduct business.

The other area of concern and contention has been the movement of Indian skilled professionals to the US under the H1B programme. While Trump has always made immigration a major campaign theme, and such issues have come up in the US Congress periodically, it has not led to any major barriers for Indians so far.

In the last one year, the US has sent back about 1,100 illegal immigrants from India.

New Delhi has maintained that it does not support illegal immigration from India, and has always backed legal channels of migration.

But if plane loads of Indians start arriving from the US, it will pose a challenge in the domestic constituency.

What Biden has done is open the tech partnership in the critical and emerging technologies and New Delhi will expect Trump to now give a boost to that partnership, and even at the Quad grouping. And that is what Modi hinted at when he talked about the strengthening of the collaboration, by building on the successes of the previous term.