Mahakumbh stampede: Causes of such disasters, how they can be prevented

The report said, “Majority of the crowd disasters in India and developing countries have occurred at religious places.”

What causes stampedes?

Causes of stampedes can be many: structural, which includes weak temporary structures, poor barricading, poor guardrails, poorly-lit stairwells, narrow entry and exits etc; fire or electrical failure; inadequacies in crowd control; crowd behaviour; poor security; and lack of coordination between stakeholders.

According to the NDMA report, crowd control is key to avoiding stampedes. Some of the reasons due to which crowd control fails, the report says, include: arrival of more than anticipated crowd at a religious gathering or a public function; underestimation of audience, staffing and services; people allowed in excess of holding capacity; limited holding area before the entrance; lack of access control; closed/locked exit; lack of adequate and strong railings to marshal the queue; lack of sectoral partitions to segregate assembled crowd, etc.

The report suggests improper/inadequate arrangements only add to the problem.

“As a result, there is either panic or an excitement in visitor’s mind which further leads to evacuation or crowding respectively,” the report says. This, it claims, leads to either overcrowding or accelerated movement of the crowd. “On occasions, this has led to deaths because of crushing, suffocation, and trampling. Historically, compressive asphyxia has been the most common reason for deaths in crowd disasters,” the report says.

Is crowd behaviour a factor?

According to the report, understanding crowd behaviour is an important aspect of preventing stampedes.

“Individual behaviour in a crowd is sometimes influenced by the behaviour of others. The unlawful actions of a few people can result in larger numbers following them. Research has shown that understanding of crowd behaviour has led to a community-based approach to crowd control instead of force based control,” the report says.

“At number of places, demand simply outstrips supply, leading to overcrowding. Because of this, there is a need for an input control i.e. restricting the number of entries. A mandatory registration process makes this possible,” the report says.

The report has argued that a long wait at places of worship may “result in a few devotees climbing up the fences which could lead to a large number following them causing overcrowding in another area”.

The report has said inappropriate or poorly managed control procedures may worsen the situation. “For example, police reacting to a group of unruly people may chase them in a direction opposite to the incoming crowd, which may create a collision, and hence a disaster,” it has said.

What does it say about past incidents?

The report makes references to many past stampedes. One among them is the August 2003 stampede at the Nashik Kumbh, where 29 pilgrims died.

According to the report, a magisterial enquiry found the following reasons for the stampede: pressure of people at various points at the barricades; a sudden flow of people in reverse direction; sadhus were allowed to move in procession on elephants and in jeeps along the “shahimarg” along with pilgrims; and unforeseen ingress of pilgrims on the “shahimarg” from various points.

Another stampede took place during the Kalubai Yatra Mandhardevi at Wai, Satara, Maharashtra, in January 2005. It killed 293 people.

An enquiry commission under Justice Rajan Kochar found the following causes: “Wrong Crowd estimates (More pilgrims expected because of Tuesday) ; Temple compound not big enough to hold large number of pilgrims; Narrow, steep, wet (slippery), winding path with (illegal) vendors (some having gas cylinders) on both sides; Illegal electric connections; Inadequate safety, security (no watchtowers, public address systems), fire, water, and medical assistance; Poor Infrastructure (Only plans, no implementations); Lack of coordination among various stake holders.”

How does crowd control work?

The report argues that most stampedes can be prevented with proactive and holistic planning and flawless execution.

“The guiding principle for crowd control should be managing demand – supply gap through i) Controlling the crowd inflow, ii) Regulating the crowd at the venue, and iii) Controlling the outflow, if needed,” the report says.

It says in order to understand demand, the authorities need to understand the history of numbers, crowd arrival patterns, type of visitors; mass arrival time windows creating peaks (season, days of the week, time in the day, festivals, holidays etc.); advance ticket booking/registration; and public transport timetables.

In order to understand the supply, the report says, authorities need to calculate the capacity at the venue.

Giving the examples of shrines at Vaishnodevi and Sabarimala, the report says a lot of places have started online registration of pilgrims. “This registration process could be used to influence the arrival pattern,” it says.

The report says that at a number of places, it is impossible to increase supply capacity because of religious beliefs or topological reasons. In such cases, since the wait is unavoidable, the only possibility is to make it comfortable, it adds.

Role of infrastructure and information

According to the report, it is essential to develop infrastructure for crowd management at religious places. It recommends setting up staging points for visitors to pass, with each staging having sufficient facilities for rest, food, water, hygiene; and an effective way of monitoring visitors at these points.

The report also lays emphasis on information management and dissemination.