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Election Results Haryana 2024: Why this will be a verdict on Congress’ caste calculus

Election Results Haryana 2024: Should the BJP manage a historic third straight win in Haryana, it will be a vindication of its tried and tested electoral arithmetic. Here's what you need to know.

Assembly Election Results Haryana 2024Assembly Election Results Haryana 2024: Counting on at a government college in Panchkula. (Express photo: Kamleshwar singh)

ECI Election Results Haryana 2024: Haryana election results 2024: The contest in Haryana seems to be going differently from what the exit polls predicted. The BJP has maintained a significant lead since the counting of EVMs began, and continues to lead on 49 seats for the last 4 hours of counting. Exit polls had predicted a majority for Congress.

Should the BJP manage a historic third straight win in Haryana, it will be a vindication of its tried and tested electoral arithmetic — consolidating all non-Jat votes. Jats are a significant voting bloc in Haryana, and the Congress was banking heavily on their support.

Also in Explained | Haryana: An electoral history

Here’s all you need to know.

Jat influence in Haryana election results

Jats have a strong presence in 40 of the 90 Assembly segments of Haryana. Since 1966, when Haryana was carved out of Punjab, CMs from the Jat community have ruled the state for 33 years. Though Haryana’s first and second CMs, Bhagwat Dyal Sharma and Rao Birender Singh, were non-Jats, the tenures of non-Jat CMs have been brief (except that of Bhajan Lal, who holds the record for being Haryana’s longest-serving CM with over 11 years in power).

In 2014, when the BJP swept to power in the state, it ended the decade-long rule of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a tall leader from the Jat community. The party appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi Khatri, to the CM post.

In 2019, the BJP did not win a majority on its own, and had to depend on the Jat leader Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party to retain power.

Situation this time around

Ahead of the 2024 Assembly elections, Jats were angry with the BJP for multiple reasons, the most prominent being the farmers’ agitation and the wrestlers’ protest.

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Even after the three contentious farm laws were scrapped, farmers have been protesting for a legal guarantee of MSP for crops and other demands. The Central government’s perceived ill-treatment of farmers during their yearlong agitation still rankles in the community.

The wrestlers’ protest, meanwhile, was headlined by Vinesh Phogat and Sakshi Malik, from the Jat community. Vinesh is contesting from Julana on a Congress ticket.

The parties’ calculations

The Congress has fielded 28 Jats, reflecting how much it banked on the community’s support. Former CM Hooda played a strong role in deciding who the party would field, and spearheaded the poll campaign.

The BJP, meanwhile, gave tickets to 16 Jat candidates. The sitting Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is from the OBC community. The party has projected him as the CM face in this election too. The state BJP chief, Mohan Lal Badoli, is a Brahmin leader.

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The JJP, the other claimant for Jat votes, seems headed for a washout in this election. The final numbers today will be a verdict on the Congress’s strategy of heavily courting this community, when consolidating non-Jat votes had already propelled BJP to victory twice.

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