Israeli strikes: What is Hezbollah and why are fears over a new regional conflict being raised?

While Hezbollah had denied launching the rocket, Israel held it responsible. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier, “The state of Israel will not and cannot let this pass. Our response will come and it will be harsh.”
Lebanon’s Information Minister Ziad Makary has now said Hezbollah was expected to retaliate.

The region is also tense at present after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on Wednesday. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said it was now “Tehran’s duty” to avenge his death.

Ever since the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 last year, the spectre of a wider regional conflict has loomed, given the longstanding regional, sectarian and communal rivalries, and intervention from foreign powers in the Middle East. Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip also continues, with more than 39,000 people believed to have been killed to date.

In this context, what role has Hezbollah played? We explain.

Who was Fuad Shukr and what is Hezbollah?

The IDF claimed in its post that Shukr “has directed Hezbollah’s attacks on the State of Israel since October 8th, and he was the commander responsible” for the Sunday attack, “as well as the killing of numerous Israelis and foreign nationals over the years.” He was also responsible for the majority of Hezbollah’s most advanced weaponry, it said. Shukr is believed to have been associated with Hezbollah since its founding.

An undated photograph of Muhsin Shukr, also known as Fuad Shukr, and described by Lebanese security sources as head of Hezbollah’s operations center, appears on a wanted poster circulated by the U.S. Department of State’s Diplomatic Security Service entity “Rewards for Justice”. (Rewards for Justice (RFJ)/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo)

Hezbollah translates to “Party of God”. The think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has described it as “The world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, with a large and diverse stockpile of unguided artillery rockets, as well as ballistic, antiair, antitank, and antiship missiles.”

In modern history, Lebanon was under a French mandate until 1943. After it ended, important official posts, such as Prime Minister and President of the country, were reserved for people of particular religious denominations given the diversity within the population.

Hezbollah originated during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), which was a result of “long-simmering discontent over the large, armed Palestinian presence in the country”, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Lebanon borders Israel to its north. Amid its internal ethnic and religious divisions, the arrival of Palestinian refugees from 1948 onwards — after the creation of Israel as a state for Jewish people that year — led to added tensions. Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982 to expel Palestinian guerrilla fighters. Hezbollah sources told Reuters that Shukr fought Israeli troops during Israel’s 1982 invasion.

Hezbollah was formed around this time, inspired by the formation of a theocratic Islamic government in Iran in 1979. Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also provided funding to the group.

What are Hezbollah’s aims?

It opposes Israel and Western influence in the Middle East. Hezbollah’s positioning also reflects West Asia’s two major powers and their rivalry – the Sunni Muslim-dominated Saudi Arabia and the majority Shia Muslim-dominated Iran. The US, which is a staunch ally of Israel and Saudi Arabia, estimates that Iran supplies hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to Hezbollah and that it has thousands of fighters.

Hezbollah became more visible in Lebanese politics in the mid-2000s and currently holds 13 of the 128 seats in the country’s Parliament. Along with its allies, it forms the ruling government. But in recent years, many in Lebanon have protested against it amid worsening poverty, unemployment and government debt.

What are Hezbollah’s military capabilities?

Hezbollah has undertaken targeted attacks, such as a 1983 suicide bombing of barracks housing US and French troops in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, in which more than 300 people died. Many Western governments characterise it as a terrorist organisation, as does the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes six West Asian countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Israel and Hezbollah first fought a war in 2006 over a month and have often exchanged fire. According to CSIS, “The party’s arsenal is comprised primarily of small, man-portable, unguided artillery rockets. Although these devices lack precision, their sheer number makes them effective weapons of terror.” Israeli estimates peg the number at 15,000 rockets and missiles on the eve of the 2006 war. “Hezbollah has since expanded its rocket force, today estimated at 130,000 rounds,” it added.

Why is there worry over escalation?

Since October 7, small-scale attacks at the Israel-Lebanon border have been reported frequently. Israeli strikes have killed around 350 Hezbollah fighters and more than 100 civilians, while Israel says its 23 civilians and 17 soldiers have been killed in Hezbollah attacks, according to Reuters.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, called the rocket attack on Sunday the “deadliest” one against Israeli civilians since October 7.

Within Israel, the right-wing Netanyahu-led government has come under criticism for the Hamas attack. However, its use of military force in Gaza since then has been characterised as a “collective punishment” by UN experts and described as disproportionate. Another front of the war opening up towards its north could bring further devastation.

Recent events have also shown that other Iran-backed groups in the region actively playing a role in the conflict. Yemen-based Houthis attacked Western ships passing through the Red Sea earlier this year. They also pledged allegiance to the Palestinian cause and were able to cause global disruptions in trade for some time.

On the other hand, not all regional attacks have provoked strong responses. After Israeli strikes hit an Iranian consulate building in Syria in April, killing senior military officers, Iran launched retaliatory strikes, although with some warning. Israel’s response was also limited in its scale.

The US, which has been criticised for its support for Israel and will have its presidential elections soon, is also reportedly asking Israel to avoid a major attack. An Israeli diplomatic source also told Reuters before the killing of Fuad Shukr that, “The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war”, and “That would not be in our interest at this point.”