Increase in coal production capacity dipped in 2024: What does it mean for net-zero targets?

The analysis, ‘Still digging 2025: Tracking global coal mine proposals’, was published late last month by the Global Energy Monitor, a non-governmental organisation which develops and analyses data on energy infrastructure, resources, and uses.

Why did the production capacity reduce last year? Which regions are developing the highest number of new coal projects? How much coal mining capacity is India planning to increase? Here is a look.

The dip in production capacity increase

Last year, the amount of production capacity that came online stood at 105 mtpa — a 46% decline from 2023, when the amount was 193 mtpa. In fact, the 2024 increase was the smallest production capacity increase in a decade. According to the report, the 105 mtpa of added production capacity was more than 100 mtpa below the annual average (206.5 mtpa) for the period between 2015 and 2024.

This dip was primarily led by top coal-producing countries, China and India, where plans of expanding coal production capacity slowed down in 2024. “The slowdown likely reflects delays in expansion approvals, the inherently lengthy nature of coal mine development phases, and a potential easing of supply-demand pressure following the pandemic-fueled surge in capacity additions over the previous two years,” the report said.

Therefore, this slowdown in the increase of production capacity in the two countries might not continue in the following years.

Large volume of coal mine proposals in pipeline

According to the report, globally at least 2,270 mtpa of additional coal mining capacityremains under various stages of development. Nearly half of this amount — 1,113 mtpa — is in the early stages of planning, 744 mtpa is already under construction or in test operation, and the remaining 414 mtpa has been approved.

Around 90% of this proposed production capacity is located in a handful of countries. For instance, China alone accounts for 1,350 mtpa of proposed capacity. India follows with 329 mtpa. Then there is Australia with 165 mtpa, Russia with around 98 mtpa, and South Asia with nearly 73 mtpa.

Status of India’s proposed production capacity

Currently, 339 mtpa of coal mining capacity is under development in India. Of this, 163 mtpa is in the early planning stage, about 90 mtpa has been permitted, and 75 mtpa is already under construction, according to the report.

Notably, four states in India account for nearly 90% of the total proposed capacity of the country. These are: Jharkhand (106 mtpa), Odisha (92 mtpa), Chhattisgarh (50 mtpa), and Madhya Pradesh (44 mtpa).

Over the years, coal production in India has been steadily increasing, reaching 1,048 mt in FY 2024-2025. The country plans to produce 1.3 billion tonnes of coal by FY 2026-2027, and 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. To achieve this goal, India has proposed to open 100 new coal mines, adding 500 mtpa in capacity by 2030.

The impact on global emission targets

If all 2,270 mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity is brought online at a steady rate through 2030, achieving the 1.5 degrees Celsius target would become even more difficult. That’s because the proposed capacity could release a large amount of emissions of methane, a potent GHG. Note that methane is responsible for 30% of the warming since preindustrial times, second only to carbon dioxide. A report by the United Nations Environment Programme observed that over a 20-year period, methane is 80 times more potent at warming than carbon dioxide.

“The International Energy Agency and United Nations have both proposed cuts to production at coal mines ranging from 39% to 75% by 2030, compared to 2020 production levels of roughly 7,607 mt. The current pipeline of coal mines in development would only widen this gap,” the report said.