As daily ridership figures fail to meet target, is Pune Metro on the right track?

According to the figures on the Pune Metro website, in October 2024, the average daily rides on the Pune Metro were 1,55,407 – around one-fourth of the over 6 lakh estimated combined daily ridership predicted in 2021.

‘Overestimating Metro ridership, underestimating costs a pattern’

Pune is not the only city facing this issue. According to a 2023 report by IIT-Delhi and Delhi-based thinktank The Infravision Foundation, all Metro systems in the country are operating on less than 50 per cent of their projected ridership.

“There has always been a very consistent pattern of overestimating ridership and underestimating costs for Metro projects in India. This allows them to pass the bar that has been set by typically the Ministry of Finance to get approval for the project,” says Ranjit Gadgil, Program Director at Parisar, a Pune-based NGO advocating sustainable development.

The Union Ministry of Urban Development, in a 2014 letter, had recommended to the Maharashtra urban development department that alternatives like bus rapid transport or light rail should be considered for Pune in place of the Metro as these are cheaper alternatives for the level of passenger traffic estimated in the city. This suggestion was not genuine, according to Gadgil, who says, “It is a bit of a fait accompli. The political system has already decided that the Metro will happen in Pune, whether it is required or not.”

Will expanding Metro lines bring ridership up?

Expanding existing Metro lines and building new lines might increase ridership but it would not resolve the issue as projected estimates were given for the currently operational lines.

Urban transport planner Bhaumik Gowande, who has worked on the Station Access and Mobility Program for Delhi and Nagpur Metro, said, “They really need to dig deep into the issue of low ridership immediately before they expand the lines. Everybody says, ‘When you expand the Metro to the entire city then people will use it’. But the projection was given for the lines currently operational. Why has it not been achieved? It is not rocket science, you have to really go on the ground and understand the problem.”

Local behaviour patterns and public needs also need to be taken into account, adds Gowande. “These estimations are thumb rule-based or formula-based. But to ensure that they are realistic, on-ground public consultation needs to happen. You will see a lot of photos from the Pune Metro stations where two-wheelers are parked on the sidewalk. This means that the local behaviour was not taken into consideration. Two-wheelers are the lifeblood of Pune,” he explains.

While Hemant Sonawane, Executive Director (Administration & Public Relations), Pune Metro, did not respond to requests for a comment, Shravan Hardikar, Managing Director of Maha Metro, refused to comment on the issue citing the Model Code of Conduct in place for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections.

Lack of accountability

Gadgil questions the lack of accountability that has followed Metro projects around the country. “Shouldn’t someone ask the government: Why was the projected number high? Why is the ridership lower than that? What assumptions in the DPR were not fulfilled? Typically the CAG [Comptroller and Auditor General of India] comes out with a report, which is often reported in the media. What happened to the CAG report?” Gadgil asks.

“When we had questioned the estimates in the DPR before the construction started we were told by officials ‘Why do you bother reading these documents?’” Gadgil alleges.

He also raises doubts over the competence of authorities preparing reports for approval of Metro projects. “DMRC touts itself as an expert in this (Metro planning), their credibility should be called into question. How are they constantly giving estimates that do not match with the real figures? Either they are incompetent, or dishonest, you take your pick. If the DMRC had predicted a ridership of say even 2 lakh for this line, I do not think the project would have been sanctioned,” says Gadgil.

Anuj Dayal, Corporate Communications Head, DMRC, said that the organisation had no comment on the allegations or the Pune Metro ridership issue.

In an interview with The Indian Express in October, Nationalist Congress Party (SP) spokesperson Anish Gawande spoke about why politicians prefer Metros over buses. He said, “Metros are flashy big-ticket infrastructure projects that look good for the government in power, and you can give out the contracts for thousands of crores of rupees. Buses, on the other hand, require much less effort, are not as sexy, and do not get you the PR stunt that you need. But the reality is that buses work better than Metros.”