Sena vs Sena: Narwekar verdict a fall out of BJP’s operation lotus strategy from 2022

On Tursday, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “The Speaker’s verdict was purely on merit. It considered legal, legislative and constitutional aspects in determining the CM Eknath Shinde-led faction as the real Shiv Sena. The Shinde-led coalition government is strong and will complete its full tenure.”

The Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar said, “Uddhav Thackeray lost the party, MLAs, MPs and now even the leadership. All this is an outcome of arrogance.”

In November 2019, Thackeray, after the assembly elections, took the decision to break ties with BJP and forged an alliance with Congress and NCP in Maharashtra. Thackeray became chief minister. The developments came as a rude shock to the BJP which was confident of seeing Devendra Fadnavis take charge as CM of Maharashtra for a second term.

A senior BJP functionary said, “November 2019 was a turning point in equations between BJP and undivided Shiv Sena. The BJP termed Thackeray’s act of distancing from it as an act of betrayal. It had then pledged to teach Thackeray a lesson of life.”

After a long wait of two and a half years, BJPs operation lotus, that saw Eknath Shinde revolt, came into fruition. With 40 MLAs out of 56 walking out of the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena to join the Shinde faction, the BJP accomplished its agenda to split Shiv Sena which was founded by late Bal Thackeray on June 19, 1966.

Apart from avenging Thackeray’s betrayal, the BJP’s decision to split Shiv Sena was essentially two pronged. The first agenda was to undermine the Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership. Secondly, it ensured that control of the real Shiv Sena, as pronounced by Speaker Rahul Narwekar, rested in the hands of Shinde.

The undivided Shiv Sena-BJP alliance goes back three decades. Back then, late Bal Thackeray and late Pramod Mahajan took the decision to create a saffron alliance to avoid the division of Hindutva votes. It was also a tactical move to consolidate an electoral base to fight the then strong Congress (and later NCP which was formed in June 10, 1999).

With Hindutva was the common plank that kept them united, the saffron alliance had its share of problems. From seat-sharing to party agendas, there were differences within them. The Shiv Sena’s often aggressive ‘sons of the soil’ plank left BJP embarrassed as it was then perceived as a North Indian party. The local BJP leaders often blamed Shiv Sena for their stunted growth. It believed the party could not expand as it had to share a turf with the Sena.

However, an election result analysis showed the BJP gained more in the long run than Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in the alliance.

The political trajectory of the Shiv Sena, in alliance with the BJP in the last 24 years, showed poor growth, registering only a 3.09 per cent increase in vote share and adding 21 seats. Whereas, the BJP made a quantum jump, registering a 16.37 per cent increase in its vote share and adding 80 seats in assembly elections held between 1990 and 2014. The only exception where the Shiv Sena and BJP did not contest assembly elections together was 2014. In the 2019 assembly polls, they contested in alliance. The BJP won 105 (25.75 per cent) and Shiv Sena 56 seats (16.41 per cent).

The Shiv Sena and BJP for the first time struck a pre-poll alliance for both Lok Sabha in 1989. Layer, it decided to continue the alliance for the Assembly elections. In the 1990 assembly elections, Shiv Sena, with a greater command in Maharashtra, contested 171 seats and BJP settled for less 117 seats.

The results showed Shiv Sena won 52 seats (15.94 pc) and BJP won 42 seats (10.71 pc).

The Congress came to power in the state with an absolute majority.

The 1995 elections was fought on the Hindutva cause, after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the saffron alliance came to power for the first time in Maharashtra defeating the Congress party. The Shiv Sena led with 73 seats (16.39pc). Although in second position, the BJP seat tally increased to 65 seats (12.80 pc).

Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi became the chief minister and the deputy chief minister was BJP’s Gopinath Munde.

The 1999 elections saw the Shiv Sena’s tally reduced to 69 seats, but its vote share marginally increased to 17.33 per cent. The BJP’s seat tally also reduced to 56 seats, but its vote share rose to 14.56 per cent.

The Shiv Sena-BJP was voted out of power and replaced by the Congress-NCP, which, for the first time, formed the coalition government in Maharashra with late Vilasrao Deshmukh as the chief minister.

Assembly elections held in 2004 and 2009 saw the Shiv Sena and BJP contesting together. But Congress and NCP returned to power in the state.

The BJP’s seats and vote share remained steady in 2004 at 54 seats (13.67 per cent). The Shiv Sena won 62 seats (19.97 pc). In 2009, the BJP’s seats dropped to 46 (14.02 pc). The Shiv Sena got 45 seats (16.02 pc).

The 2009 polls saw BJP (46 seats) getting ahead of Shiv Sena (45 seats) by just one seat.

After contesting the Lok Sabha polls together in 2014, Shiv Sena and BJP broke ties six months later in November in the state assembly polls.

The dispute between them was over three seats. The Thackeray party insisted on contesting 150 seats out of 288. The BJP was keen on giving them 147 seats.

The 2014 assembly polls saw all mainstream parties contesting separately. The multi-cornered contest saw BJP emerging as the largest party with 122 seats (27.08 per cent) while Shiv Sena got 63 seats (19.03 per cent).

The Congress and NCP were reduced to 42 seats and 41 seats respectively in state polls.