Who will be the next Maharashtra CM? A state debates

Though he did not elaborate, the remark has left wide scope for analysis as to why a politician of Sharad Pawar’s stature was so curt in his observations about a nephew who was groomed under his guidance for the last five decades. While differences between the uncle and nephew following the split in the NCP are understandable, many within the Ajit Pawar-led NCP were quick to argue, “If Ajit Pawar is destined to become the CM, nobody can stop it from happening.”

Ironically, Sharad Pawar’s remark came at a time when his daughter and NCP working president Supriya Sule said, “If Ajit Pawar became the CM, being his sister, I would be the first person to garland him.” It was when the media raised this observation before Sharad Pawar that he delivered his rebuke.

Political managers within the Sharad Pawar faction are quick to draw attention to how Pawar Senior’s observations come from his vast experience. “If he has hinted something, there must be some valid reason. It is not out of anger against his nephew. His words are based on pragmatism,” a party insider said.

In the past few days, party workers of all three ruling parties have made different statements on the issue.

The Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) workers are increasingly asserting the leadership of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. A few days ago, party MLA Sanjay Shirsat said, “Considering his vast ability and experience, [deputy chief minister] Devendra Fadnavis should play an important role in the Centre.” Maharashtra can be left to Shinde’s leadership, he added.

The Shiv Sena is not the only party batting for the coveted post. Dharmaraobaba Atram from the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar proclaimed last week, “In politics, anything is possible. Ajit Pawar will become the next CM.”

The BJP has dismissed the growing assertion within the ruling combine over the CM’s post as natural. State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said on Thursday, “Every party is bound to project its own leadership for the CM post…”. Ultimately, the final decision will be taken by the parliamentary board after the 2024 Assembly polls, he added.

In the context of Sharad Pawar’s remark, Bawankule was quick to point out, “Nobody should underestimate Ajit Pawar. Anybody dismissing him or questioning his merit is making a mistake.”

Pawar politics

It was on July 2 that Ajit Pawar along with 40 NCP MLAs joined the Shiv Sena- BJP coalition government in Maharashtra and took charge as deputy chief minister. According to political strategists in the BJP, when Eknath Shinde joined the BJP along with 40 Shiv Sena rebels to form the government, the BJP central leadership promised him the CM’s post. Similar discussions were also held with Ajit Pawar.

In August 2023, at a function in Pune, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said, “Ajit Pawar, you have now come to the right place. But you came a little late.” This, many say, was an indication that the BJP central leadership was likely to reward Ajit Pawar post-2024 elections – provided he delivered the results in the Lok Sabha 2024 polls likely in April-May.

“In politics, everything works on mutual trust. If Ajit Pawar remains sincere and proves his mettle, the BJP will surely make him CM post 2024 polls,” a senior BJP functionary said. Fadnavis himself has already hinted that Ajit Pawar “will become CM for a full five years”.

“We will leave no stone unturned to accomplish Ajit Pawar’s dream of becoming CM,” senior NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal said. Moreover, since Supriya Sule has expressed her desire to garland him, we will have to fulfil her wishes, he added sarcastically.

In the past, Assembly elections in Maharashtra were always contested on the election manifesto and the CM candidate was always kept under wraps. It was only after the elections that the party which was voted to power convened a meeting and chose its chief ministerial candidate.

To date, Maharashtra has had 20 chief ministers, including Eknath Shinde, and in a majority of these cases, cutting across party lines, the chief minister was decided after the results were declared. The 2024 elections are unlikely to be any different.