BJP riding high on poll success in 3 states, but come 2024, Maharashtra to be different kettle of fish

Unlike Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the contest was essentially between two pan-Indian parties, the Congress and the BJP, Maharashtra is an altogether different political turf. The ruling Maha Yuti and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances are conglomerations of three parties.

The Maha Yuti comprises the BJP, Shiv Sena (CM Eknath Shinde faction) and the NCP (Deputy CM Ajit Pawar faction). Meanwhile, the MVA is a coalition of the Congress, the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction).

The BJP, with 23 MPs and 106 MLAs, remains the biggest party in Maharashtra. Shiv Sena of Shinde is a breakaway group with 40 MLAs and 13 MPs. Ajit Pawar’s NCP has 41 MLAs and one MP.

After the split between the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the Congress emerged as the largest Opposition party with 44 MLAs and one MP. Shiv Sena (UBT) has 16 MLAs and six MPs, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP has 13 MLAs and 3 MPs.

As it is, alliance partners CM Shinde and Deputy CM Ajit Pawar will likely strike a hard bargain with the BJP regarding seat and power share.

Also, unlike other states in the Hindi heartland where the election agendas were governance, anti-corruption, pro-poor policies and appeasement politics, Maharashtra currently finds itself caught in a caste cauldron.

The Maratha reservation issue has kept the ruling BJP on tenterhooks. With growing assertions from both Marathas and Other Backward Classes (OBC), the right-wing party has to diffuse the complex problem in time so that it does not have adverse ramifications in the coming polls.

The Marathas constitute 33 per cent of the state population and are a formidable force that no party can ignore. The politically dominant community has now sought reservation within the OBC category. The Maratha agitation led by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil will intensify if reservation demand is not resolved.

On the other hand, OBC groups are in no mood to relent. Rashtriya OBC Mahasangh president Babanrao Taywade said they would not allow Marathas reservations within the OBC category.

Similar voices are heard in the state cabinet as well, with senior NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal championing the OBC cause. With 52 per cent of the population, OBCs have traditionally been the BJP’s electoral base. Any attempt to antagonise OBCs by conceding to Marathas’ demands is not something the BJP can afford.

Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis has maintained, “Our government is committed to the Maratha reservation. At the same time, we will ensure OBCs’ present reservation is not diluted. There is no question of compromising the OBC quota.”

The party leaders acknowledge that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one plank that can help them overcome the reservation dilemma.

Since it took charge of the state government in June 2022 after breaking the Shiv Sena, the BJP realised it had just two years nure under CM Shinde to provide good governance. Fadnavis, who had to settle for the deputy chief minister role, was entrusted with the job of ensuring good governance to earn goodwill in the masses.

In July 2023, The BJP got the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP to its fold to undermine Sharad Pawar-led NCP’s hold in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra. Within one year, the BJP engineered “Operation Lotus” to break Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s parties.

A senior BJP functionary said, “Every state will have a different model. What happened in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan cannot apply to Maharashtra. We split the Shiv Sena and NCP to consolidate our base electorally to make inroads in constituencies beyond our reach.”

Although a section within BJP believes this “tod phod ki rajniti” (splitting parties) would not work in the long run and undermines the party’s image, the central leadership in Delhi has chosen the model, keeping in sight just the one objective of winning elections at any cost.

The state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The BJP’s central idea is to maximise its reach to last man, last mile. What applies to people also applies to political leaders and parties. If someone is ready to join us, why should BJP shut its doors.”

“Alliances apart the real hard grind which is a continuous process is the empowerment of poor, oppressed, tribal and Dalits through welfare policies and programmes undertaken by Centre and the state government. As party machinery, we work 24×7 to network with people.”

“We believe in a door-to-door outreach plan.” What is notable is that even Union and state ministers participate in party plans,” Bawankule added.

Bawankule believes the BJP under PM Modi can win over 45 seats of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra – the second highest in the country after Uttar Pradesh’s 80. He said it will win 230 of the 288 seats in the Assembly polls.

But he admits the party and its leaders must maintain guard and double their efforts to achieve the stated objective.

Meanwhile conceding the setback in the recent Assembly polls, Opposition leaders accused the BJP of adopting an unethical model to win elections.

The state Congress president, Nana Patole, said, “The Assembly elections and Lok Sabha are different. The BJP has succeeded in polarising people on communal lines and winning Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Lok Sabha, things could be different. The Opposition will give a tough fight.”

Opposition leader Vijay Waddetiwar of the Congress said, “The elections are no longer a contest between parties. The BJP is misusing central agencies to come to power at any cost. It does not matter. The Congress is still a people’s party. It will keep the fight going.”