Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll: In 4-cornered contest, AAP’s Sushil Kumar Rinku leads, Congress a distant second

The BJP tried to upset the political applecart by wooing Hindu voters and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has tried to remain politically relevant after getting reduced to three seats in the Punjab Assembly elections held last year. In the 2017 Assembly election, the SAD won 15 seats in the 117-member Punjab Vidhan Sabha.

The BJP nominee Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal is the son of former Akali Dal veteran Charanjit Singh Atwal, who served as deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha, and twice as the Punjab Vidhan Sabha speaker. The saffron party, apart from getting the traditional urban votes, also tried to make inroads into rural pockets.

The results are important for the AAP, which despite a landslide victory securing 92 seats in the February 2022 elections, had lost in four out of the nine Assembly segments that fall under the Jalandhar parliamentary seat, the Doaba hinterland.

The trends showing AAP in the lead have emerged in the backdrop of one of its members in the Council of Ministers facing allegations of having exploited a man in an alleged sex tape video submitted to Punjab Governor Banwarilal Purohit.

The poll result trends also suggested that the AAP was able to overcome the initial disenchantment over the Amritpal Singh issue, law and order, as well as the back-to-back blasts in Amritsar in recent days. The BJP had tried to capitalise on these issues while projecting itself as a nationalist party.

The AAP has relied on promises to voters, including free power to consumers and opening of mohalla clinics on the lines of Arvind Kejriwal’s Delhi model. Opposition parties had, during the campaign, targeted the AAP for not fulfilling its pre-Assembly poll vows, prominently the Rs 1,000 per month promised to women aged 18 and above.

In the run-up to the bypoll, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal held road shows in Jalandhar while campaigning for the party candidate. The AAP projected its role in fulfilling the party’s pre-poll promises and being on course to implement other promises it had made.

Initial trends suggesting AAP victory in Jalandhar also indicate the popularity of the ruling government after its humiliating loss in the Sangrur parliamentary bypoll which was necessitated after Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann took over as chief minister.

Slain singer-rapper Shubhdeep Singh Moosewala’s father Balkaur Singh extensively campaigned against the ruling AAP demanding justice for his son’s death. Balkaur was vocal against the AAP government, raising crucial questions on the withdrawal of security to his son and the larger investigation into those behind the singer’s death.

The Punjab Congress, otherwise known for internal dissent, put up a united front with state chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, Leader of Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa and star campaigner Navjot Singh Sidhu coming together to seek votes for Congress nominee Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary. However, this does not seem to have worked out for the party whose candidates have won the Jalandhar Lok Sabha seat since 1992, barring the polls held in 1996 and 1998.

The BJP also tried to woo Dalit Sikhs by fielding former SAD member Atwal, pressing in Sikh faces like former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh and former finance minister Parminder Singh Dhindsa, but it could not make much impact. The saffron party had gone solo after its break-up with former ally SAD over the controversial farm laws which were repealed after farmers’ protests.

The Akali Dal’s attempt to invoke the late Parkash Singh Badal as a “messiah” for the Scheduled Caste community for his role in implementing several welfare schemes for them also does not appear to have worked for SAD-BSP candidate Sukhwinder Kumar Sukhi.

The takeaway for the BJP is that it appears to be performing on its own after parting ways with the Akali Dal as it aims to increase its footprint in Punjab. In case of any future re-alliance with SAD, the saffron party positions itself to bargain, given the results.

“Saada nahi koyee kasur, saada ilaaka Sangrur (Not our fault, our area is Sangrur),” the AAP may pay heed to this old phrase which can be taken to mean that the Sangrur defeat was not the ultimate sign that indicated the party’s political fortunes. Incidentally, chief minister Mann was elected as Lok Sabha MP from Sangrur twice.