India-US deal could involve a grand bargain on oil: New Jersey Governor

Incidentally, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who was in the US recently for trade talks, said Wednesday that India’s energy security goals will have a “very high element” of US involvement in the years to come. For the past few years, the US has been the fifth largest supplier of crude oil to India and the second-largest supplier of LNG.

Asked about the ongoing trade talks, Murphy told The Indian Express in an exclusive interview: “The vibrations around suggest there’s a landing place sooner rather than later…the vibrations are that there’s going to be a deal here, which means that it would be less punitive than the current. But it’s probably a grand bargain…that has oil as part of it.

Murphy was in Mumbai with his wife Tammy Murphy as part of their six-day four-city “economic mission” to India that included visits to New Delhi, Kochi, Bangalore and Mumbai. A former US Ambassador to Germany (2009-13), Murphy has worked in Goldman Sachs where he headed the firm’s Asia unit.

Supporting US President Donald Trump’s measures with respect to Russia, he cautioned that imposing heavy tariffs on America’s allies “is not the right way to get there.”

Asked if India was being singled out given that China also imports Russian oil, he said: “China needs to be taken to task…China cannot come out of this and cannot get away with what they’re doing.”

On Russia, he echoed Trump’s objective of ensuring accountability. “Russia deserves to be taken to task, and they need to continue to be taken to task. But I’m not of the opinion that putting big tariffs on your allies is the way to do that,” Murphy said.

Murphy also made it clear that he does not “agree with the policy” on H-1B visas, signalling concern over its impact on students and immigrant communities. He will complete eight years as Governor in January of New Jersey, a state where the Indian diaspora is a force to reckon with.

Touching upon immigration concerns, particularly the H-1B visa issue that directly affects New Jersey’s large Indian community, Murphy struck a more optimistic note. “It (H-1B Visa issue) started out like, holy cow, Friday, $100,000 a year. It’s now down to $16,667 a year. The people we have spoken to say it won’t get worse than that. It could get better,” the Governor said. “I agree with the principle to give every American kid the shot at everything that could be fulfilled, but this is not the way to do it,” he said.

When asked whether the current India-US chill, on trade and visas, is a hiccup in a longer bilateral arc of engagement or a long-term structural change in the relationship, Murphy said: “I hope it’s a short-term reality. It won’t be easy to regain the trust on both sides…. I agree with President Trump’s objective to take Russia to task. That’s not the issue. The issue is how you do…This is the case with a lot of the Trump administration policies. It’s less arguing about the principle, it’s more arguing about the execution. But I hope it’s more short term.”

Stating that he is an optimist by nature, he said, “I think there’s so much at stake. We’re so intertwined. I mean, we’ve met company after company, university after university with deep ties at the moment and I’m hoping it can be contained.”

On the issues of H-1B visas and how it may impact Indian workers and students, he said, “You want to keep bad people out of your country? I’m all for that, but I’ve always thought the student visa process was a good one….. In the H-1 visas as well, if anything, I would expand that program. Secure borders and then expand that program to get the talent we need,” he said.

Asked if there will be a decline in the number of students going to the US because of the H-1B visa issues, he said, “I bet it will, unfortunately…they will end up going somewhere else or they’ll stay here. I would not be surprised if more American universities could have a presence in India. You could see one plus three programs, two plus two, three plus one.”

“Over 2,000 Indian students are waiting for their visas for the semester that began a month ago. I think we will get where we’ve been working with the State Department. But that’s a challenge that we’re going to have to cut through and it won’t be overnight.”

Asked if some of the decisions taken were reversible, the Governor said: “I can’t speak for the Trump administration or for the administration. You’ve already seen the H-1B visa get announced on Friday and get changed within 24 hours. Yes, it doesn’t get worse than it is today. Could it get better? Yes. My guess is there will be legal action, lots of people are looking at that, including us. So I’m not sure about reversing… does it go back to where it was Thursday? I don’t know, but they clearly dropped the economic price and they delayed it till April.”

He said that student visas will have to get better. Stating that it used to be a race for three months to get visas processed, he said, “Now this is going to end up being a longer tail, probably a year-round process. These all depend on who the president is, obviously.”