US election just days away, Harris lead over Trump dwindles to a single point

While Harris has maintained a lead over Trump in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since entering the race in July, her advantage has steadily decreased since late September. A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from  October 16 to 21 showed Vice-President Harris with a two-point lead over former President Trump.

The new poll, which surveyed 1,150 US adults nationwide, including 975 registered voters, revealed that Trump holds significant advantages over Harris on several pressing issues. When asked which candidate had a better approach to the economy, unemployment, and jobs, voters in the poll favoured Trump — 47% to 37%. Trump has consistently had an edge on economic issues throughout the campaign, with 26% of voters in the latest poll citing jobs and the economy as the country’s most pressing problems, compared to 24% who pointed to political extremism and 18% who mentioned immigration.

Trump’s strongest advantage appears to be on immigration, where he has proposed hardline measures, including mass deportations of undocumented migrants. Approximately, 48% of voters in the latest poll preferred Trump’s approach to immigration, while only 33% chose Harris.

The poll also indicated that Harris’s advantage on the issue of political extremism was diminishing. About 40% of voters felt she had a better approach to handling political extremism and threats to democracy, compared to 38% who favoured Trump. This marks a decline in her two-point lead on this issue compared to her seven-point lead over Trump in the 16-21 October poll.

Harris has highlighted Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 assault on the US Capitol by his supporters, who aimed to overturn the 2020 election result. On Tuesday, she is delivering what her campaign has billed as her last major pre-election speech at the site where Trump rallied his supporters before the riot.

Trump has countered by arguing that Harris’s views are extreme and would lead to a socialist takeover of US institutions. Harris’s narrow lead over Trump may not be sufficient to secure an election victory, even if it holds through November 5.

However, in the US election, it is the results of individual states in the Electoral College that ultimately determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election by winning the Electoral College, despite losing the national popular vote by two points.

Polling indicates that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in those battleground states as well. Given the close race, the candidates’ efforts to ensure their supporters cast their ballots will be crucial in determining the outcome.

Only two-thirds of adults voted in the 2020 election, marking the highest turnout in over a century, according to estimates from the US Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center. In the latest poll, 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans indicated they were completely certain they would vote, suggesting potentially higher enthusiasm for voting compared to four years ago.

Among respondents in the latest poll who appeared most likely to vote, Harris also held a one-point lead over Trump, 47% to 46%.

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