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The Israel-Iran conflict: What we know so far and what remains unclear

Iran Israel conflict: Given the limited access international journalists have in Iran, the situation on the ground is largely unconfirmed.

israel iran missile haifaIsrael's air defense system failed to intercepts missiles launched from Iran, over Tel Aviv, Israel. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

The conflict between Israel and Iran intensified overnight, marked by a series of devastating airstrikes and missile exchanges.

Leaders from both countries insist that the fighting will persist, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing relentless attacks and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) promising a “more forceful and expansive” response.

What we know so far

On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a military offensive targeting over 170 sites and 720 military infrastructure facilities in Iran, including nuclear facilities at Natanz, Khondab, and Khorramabad, as well as military bases and missile production sites.

So far, 14 senior Iranian officials have been killed including high-ranking IRGC commander Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi.

Iranian state media also reported 60 civilian deaths, including 20 children, in a strike on a Tehran apartment building. Iranian Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi noted that most casualties from Israeli strikes were civilians, particularly women and children.

Iran retaliated with approximately 200 ballistic missiles and 100 drones targeting Israel, striking military and civilian sites, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

The IDF reported 22 impact sites where missiles evaded air defences or debris from intercepted missiles caused damage. At least 10 Israelis were killed, with over 100 injured, including seven trapped under rubble in a 10-storey building in Bat Yam and six deaths from a missile strike on a high-rise according to the BBC.

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Israel’s airspace was closed to civilian flights, stranding many citizens abroad. The United States assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles but did not participate in Israel’s strikes according to US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed damage to Natanz’s aboveground uranium enrichment plant, resulting in manageable chemical and radiological contamination, though underground facilities and other sites like Fordo and Bushehr were unaffected.

The IAEA’s recent resolution declared Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations, citing 409 kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent – near weapons-grade and sufficient for approximately 10 nuclear bombs if further enriched.

Netanyahu justified the strikes as a response to Iran’s advancing nuclear program, which he claimed could produce a nuclear weapon within months, citing intelligence of weaponisation steps.

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Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, a claim supported by US intelligence in March 2025, which stated Iran was not actively pursuing nuclear weapons.

However, the IAEA’s findings and Iran’s enrichment activities fuelled Israel’s concerns. The strikes coincided with the cancellation of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for June 15 in Oman, confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani officials.

Additional developments include Iran’s arrest of two alleged Mossad agents in Alborz province and a strike on a Tehran oil terminal in Shahran, where a fire was contained.

The UK deployed additional military jets to protect its regional personnel and bases, while Israel’s stock market saw gains, with defence contractor Elbit Systems up 6 per cent and Navitas Petroleum up 3 per cent.

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What we don’t know

The full extent of damage in Iran remains unclear due to restricted access for international journalists, with Iranian state media downplaying Israeli strikes while emphasising Iran’s retaliatory actions.

Specific impacts on infrastructure, beyond the Shahran oil terminal, are largely unreported. Casualty figures from Israel’s latest strikes are also unconfirmed, with earlier reports citing 78 deaths, though details are sparse according to the BBC.

Iran’s intentions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20 per cent of global oil trade, are uncertain.

Iranian lawmaker Esmail Kosari suggested closing the strait yesterday, which could spike oil prices, but no official decision has been confirmed. During the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, the strait remained open despite attacks on shipping.

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The precise motivations behind Israel’s timing are debated. While Netanyahu cited Iran’s nuclear advancements, some speculate the strikes aimed to derail US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which Netanyahu has long opposed.

The role of US intelligence support, though not military involvement, remains uncertain, with reports indicating possible coordination. Whether Iran will target US assets, as threatened by Defence Minister Aziz Nasrizadeh on June 11, is unknown, given the significant risks of provoking a stronger American response.

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