How Hurricane Milton became a devastating category 5 storm in just hours?

A rare and dangerous storm

Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University, remarked on the rarity of Milton’s path and intensity. “It is exceedingly rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on the western coast of Florida,” he said via email. “There are not really any hurricanes on record that have done this and made landfall at a Category 3+ status.”

Susana Ortiz fills out sand bags on the beach at the Davis Islands Yacht Basin as she prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Milton, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP)

Milton’s explosive intensification — with wind speeds increasing by over 100 miles per hour between Sunday morning and Monday afternoon — surprised meteorologists. “Milton had some of the most explosive intensification this forecaster has ever witnessed!” a National Weather Service forecaster shared on social media platform X.

Why and how Milton intensified so rapidly

The key factor behind Milton’s rapid growth is the unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. A chart from University of Miami climatologist Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat in the Gulf is near record highs. “Hotter water evaporates more readily, and rising columns of warm, moist air from that evaporation fuel rapid intensification,” McNoldy explained.

Several factors likely contributed to the Gulf’s warmth, including climate change, natural climate variability like El Niño, and possibly even a volcanic eruption, scientists suggest.

Lack of wind shear

Another crucial factor in Milton’s development is the absence of wind shear, according to Benjamin Kirtman, director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami. Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction, which can disrupt hurricanes.

Debris from homes flooded in Hurricane Helene sits curbside as Hurricane Milton approaches on Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024, in Port Richey, Fla. (AP)

However, Milton encountered little shear early on, allowing it to grow rapidly. As it nears Florida, the storm is expected to face more wind shear, potentially weakening its strength before landfall.

Milton’s small size

Despite its intensity, Milton is relatively small, with hurricane-force winds extending only about 30 miles from its centre as of Monday. Smaller hurricanes are generally more prone to fluctuations in strength due to their susceptibility to surrounding weather patterns, McNoldy noted.

While Milton is expected to grow in size before it reaches Florida, it will likely remain smaller in diameter compared to massive hurricanes like Helene.

“Smaller storms tend to produce less storm surge,” McNoldy said, noting that while Milton will still be dangerous, its size could reduce the potential impact on sea levels compared to larger systems.

However, forecasters remain concerned about Milton’s trajectory, which appears to target the densely populated Tampa Bay area. This region was recently struck by Hurricane Helene, which killed 12 people. “This is a very ominous forecast,” McNoldy warned. “It will still be an extremely strong hurricane”, as reported by Vox.

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