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Journalism of Courage
UPSC Essentials brings to you its initiative for the practice of Mains answer writing. It covers essential topics of static and dynamic parts of the UPSC Civil Services syllabus covered under various GS papers. This answer-writing practice is designed to help you as a value addition to your UPSC CSE Mains. Attempt today’s answer writing on questions related to topics of GS-1 to check your progress.
Examine how La Niña affects worldwide weather patterns and its impact on climate forecasting. Explain why global climate models occasionally fail to effectively predict La Niña episodes.
Analyse the current situation of water availability in India, focussing on the issues faced by falling per capita water supplies and their implications for economic growth and social stability. Discuss the methods being taken to address the situation.
Introduction
— The introduction of the answer is essential and should be restricted to 3-5 lines. Remember, a one-liner is not a standard introduction.
— It may consist of basic information by giving some definitions from the trusted source and authentic facts.
Body
— It is the central part of the answer and one should understand the demand of the question to provide rich content.
— The answer must be preferably written as a mix of points and short paragraphs rather than using long paragraphs or just points.
— Using facts from authentic government sources makes your answer more comprehensive. Analysis is important based on the demand of the question, but do not over analyse.
— Underlining keywords gives you an edge over other candidates and enhances presentation of the answer.
— Using flowcharts/tree-diagram in the answers saves much time and boosts your score. However, it should be used logically and only where it is required.
Way forward/ conclusion
— The ending of the answer should be on a positive note and it should have a forward-looking approach. However, if you feel that an important problem must be highlighted, you may add it in your conclusion. Try not to repeat any point from body or introduction.
— You may use the findings of reports or surveys conducted at national and international levels, quotes etc. in your answers.
Self Evaluation
— It is the most important part of our Mains answer writing practice. UPSC Essentials will provide some guiding points or ideas as a thought process that will help you to evaluate your answers.
QUESTION 1: Examine how La Niña affects worldwide weather patterns and its impact on climate forecasting. Explain why global climate models occasionally fail to effectively predict La Niña episodes.
Note: This is not a model answer. It only provides you with thought process which you may incorporate into the answers.
Introduction:
— La Niña translates to “Little Girl” in Spanish. La Niña is sometimes known as El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect as El Niño. During La Niña episodes, trade winds are stronger than usual, bringing more warm water to Asia. Upwelling occurs off the west coast of the Americas, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
— The frigid waters of the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This typically results in dryness in the southern United States and severe rainfall and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña, winter temperatures are warmer in the south and cooler in the north. La Niña might result in a more severe hurricane season.
Body:
You may incorporate some of the following points in your answer:
— According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), equatorial sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were near-to-below average on December 9. The La Niña ‘watch’ phase persisted in November and early December, resulting in ENSO-neutral circumstances.
— Last week, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 zone, one of four primary locations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean used to determine the ENSO phase, was minus 0.3 degrees Celsius.
— The ONI is determined using temperature departures from the three-monthly average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific. A La Niña beginning occurs when the ONI in this region reaches – 0.5 degrees or below.
— This year, weather models predicted the arrival of La Niña in August-September based on ocean indications. Updated estimates indicate that La Niña will occur between October and December. Recent estimates indicate a brief and weak La Niña between December and February.
— If ONI values reach the threshold, temperatures will quickly return to normal, resulting in a brief and mild La Niña period. Experts predict that the weak La Niña will become ENSO-neutral between March and May 2025. This suggests that La Niña will have a negligible impact on the Indian winter this year.
Conclusion:
— Weather models perform better when sea surface temperatures shift significantly, such as during a major El Niño or La Niña event.
— This is unlikely to be the case this time, which has likely resulted in weather models failing to accurately predict conditions because they are unable to account for minute temperature differences in their inputs.
(Source: Where is La Niña? And why did global models err in their predictions? by Anjali Marar, oceanservice.noaa.gov)
Points to Ponder
What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? How it can limit El Nino effects
Read about El Nino
Related Previous Year Questions
Most of the unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree? (2014)
What is a twister? Why are the majority of twisters observed in areas around the Gulf of Mexico? (2024)
QUESTION 2: Analyse the current situation of water availability in India, focussing on the issues faced by falling per capita water supplies and their implications for economic growth and social stability. Discuss the methods being taken to address the situation.
Note: This is not a model answer. It only provides you with thought process which you may incorporate into the answers.
Introduction:
— The Central Water Commission (CWC) calculated that India’s average annual water availability between 1985 and 2023 was 2,115.95 billion cubic meters (BCM) in their report titled ‘Assessment of Water Resources of India 2024’.
— The CWC investigated the average annual water availability based yearly net-runoff employing precipitation, evapotranspiration, land use, land cover, and soil information as key inputs. Water availability has been analysed for all river basins in the country, with the exception of three western tributaries of the Indus (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
Body:
You may incorporate some of the following points in your answer:
— According to the CWC report, the top three basins with the highest water availability in the country were the Brahmaputra (592.32 BCM), Ganga (581.75 BCM), and Godavari (129.17 BCM), while the bottom three basins were Sabarmati (9.87 BCM), Pennar (10.42 BCM), and Mahi (13.03 BCM).
Findings of the previous assessments
— The number of 2,115.95 BCM is larger than the previous estimate from 2019, which put water availability from 1985 to 2015 at 1,999.2 BCM.
— Prior to 2019, around a half dozen water availability assessments were conducted using a variety of approaches. All of these found water availability to be less than 2,000 BCM, with the earliest estimate from 1901-03 being 1,443.2 BCM.
Why is the current water availability figure higher than that of previous assessments?
— This is mostly due to methodological considerations. First, the revised evaluation considers Bhutan’s contribution to the Brahmaputra, which was not included in the previous assessment in 2019. Second, although Nepal’s contribution to the Ganga was only partially considered in the 2019 assessment, the present analysis incorporates it entirely.
— According to the CWC, “The current study includes all transboundary water entering India in the Brahmaputra, Ganga, and Indus basins (eastern rivers).”
Significance of this assessment
— The assessment of water availability is critical for the sustainable management of water resources, which are under threat from factors such as urbanisation, industrialisation, and climate change.
— It is also required to compute per capita water availability, which is one of the metrics used to assess water shortage. According to the most prevalent method for estimating water scarcity, the Falkenmark Indicator or Water Stress Index, a country is considered to be under “water stress” if its per capita water availability is less than 1,700 cubic meters. A country is under “water scarcity” if its per capita water availability is less than 1,000 cubic meters, while a per capita water availability of less than 500 cubic meters indicates “absolute water scarcity.”
Conclusion:
— According to the Ministry of Jal Shakti, the average annual per capita water availability for 2021 was 1,486 cubic meters, based on the CWC’s 2019 research, which estimated annual water availability at 1,999.2 BCM. Taking the most recent estimates into account, this amount will be higher (1,513 cubic meters for 2024 based on a predicted population of 1.398 billion), but still lower than 1,700 cubic meters.
Points to Ponder
Read about Central Water Commission
How is the availability of water distributed across geographic regions?
Related Previous Year Questions
The groundwater potential of the Gangetic valley is on a serious decline. How may it affect the food security of India? (2024)
In what way micro-watershed development projects help in water conservation in drought-prone and semi-arid regions of India? (2016)
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