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(The Indian Express launches a new series of articles for UPSC aspirants written by seasoned writers and erudite scholars on issues and concepts spanning History, Polity, International Relations, Art, Culture and Heritage, Environment, Geography, Science and Technology, and so on. Read and reflect with subject experts and boost your chance of cracking the much-coveted UPSC CSE. In the following article, our expert, Md. Muddassir Quamar, delves into the geopolitics of the Middle East and its implications for India.)
The situation in the Middle East has remained tense since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. The resultant Israel-Hamas war has since refused to end despite several regional and international attempts.
The prolonged conflict has wider implications for the future of the Middle East and the role of international actors, including India.
As New Delhi seeks to carve out a niche in the region through its increased diplomatic, political, economic and strategic engagements, it faces serious challenges due to the continuing Israel-Hamas war and the regional geopolitical developments.
The Hamas-led October 7 attacks and the consequent Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip have revived the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian issue in regional politics. The ongoing war has already proven to be one of the longest and deadliest conflicts since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
The issue of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and the rising casualties and worsening humanitarian situation in the Strip have put conflicting parties under domestic and international pressure to end the war.
Nevertheless, all regional and global efforts of a ceasefire and a negotiated solution have thus far not yielded any result. The latest attempt at ending the war was the passage of the US proposal in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as resolution 2735, which received 14 votes in favour while Russia abstained.
However, the inability of both parties to the conflict to stand down from their maximalist positions means that the UNSC resolution 2735 would likely meet the same fate as other mediation efforts.
The Indian position on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict has remained in tune with its historical stand for a two-state solution achieved through diplomatic negotiations within the purviews of the resolutions passed in the United Nations.
However, prolonging the war and its regional fallouts can affect India’s economic and strategic moves, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and maintaining a balance between relations with Israel and Iran.
Furthermore, the geopolitical developments, especially the growing Chinese footprints, could constrain India’s manoeuvring space in this vital region.
Amidst the Israel-Hamas War, the Middle East’s geopolitical situation has remained on tenterhooks. Since the end of the Second World War, the US has remained the most dominant global power in the region; however, it has been losing influence to its international competitors – China and Russia.
The decline in the US influence is related to several developments in the region such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US and the Arab Spring uprisings that engulfed the region during 2011-12.
The subsequent US tendency to reduce its military commitments in the region and the gradual US foreign policy shift to ‘pivot to Asia’ and Indo-Pacific to contain China further created a sense of power vacuum in the Middle East.
The two global rivals of the US, namely China and Russia, saw an opportunity in the situation and enhanced their strategic engagements and cooperation with the regional countries.
China, an ambitious and rising twenty-first-century Asian power, saw an opportunity in the Middle East due to the power vacuum created by the reduced US appetite for involvement in regional conflicts.
Beijing sought to enhance its regional influence through strategic and economic commitments, including the Belt and Road Initiative and strategic agreements with regional powers, such as with Iran in March 2021.
The Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran agreement for the resumption of diplomatic ties in March 2023 underlined the growing political weight of Beijing in the regional capitals.
For the regional powers, the prospects of financial and economic benefits and balancing relations with the US attracted them to China.
Moreover, Russia’s decision to intervene in Syria back in September 2015 in partnership with Iran not only proved a game changer in the Syrian civil war but also convinced Washington’s allies, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Türkiye, to seek issue-based cooperation with Moscow.
The failures of the Saudi-UAE and Egypt-UAE military interventions in Yemen and Libya, respectively, further convinced the three regional powers to seek alternatives to the US.
Following the October 7 attacks, the longstanding Israel-Palestinian conflict is at the centerstage of regional and international politics.
The developments since the attacks have put the US and Arab powers under pressure, and the Biden administration has sought the support of the most prominent Middle Eastern actor, Saudi Arabia, to deliver a diplomatic breakthrough.
Thus, the US and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in intense diplomatic negotiations to find a way to end the Gaza War with three major issues on the table.
Firstly, the Biden administration has been seeking a diplomatic normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia as an extension of the Abraham Accords that would be an incentive for Israeli concessions in Palestine.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia is seeking a roadmap towards a future Palestinian state, end of the war and complete withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from Gaza as concessions for normalisation with Israel.
On the other hand, the US has sought to incentivise Saudi Arabia by offering it the status of a major non-NATO ally of the US that would include significant security guarantees.
However, none of the above are yet to be finalised and signed, keeping the US-Saudi relations under the spotlight and regional geopolitics tense.
India has worked diligently and gradually for decades to strengthen engagements in the Gulf and the Middle East. The efforts have become energised under Prime Minister Narendra Modi since 2014.
As a result, New Delhi is viewed today as one of the major global middle powers with a substantive stake in Middle East politics. However, the Indian ability to remain engaged and seek economic cooperation rests on two fundamental issues.
Firstly, peace and stability, which depend on ending or keeping under control protracted conflicts such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For India, it would be more beneficial if they were ensured through cooperation among friendly regional and international powers such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US.
Secondly, the region must remain free from Chinese domination, which can constrain Indian maneuverability. Although China remains far from becoming a dominant international actor in the Middle East, the geopolitical developments over the past decade and the ongoing Gaza War have helped Beijing enhance its position in the Middle East.
Alternatively, the US continues to show signs of a reluctant global power unable to exert enough influence to produce favorable outcomes for itself and its international allies and partners.
The prolonged Israel-Hamas conflict has implications for India’s interests in the region. Evaluate.
How does the Israel-Palestine conflict affect India’s foreign policy?
Discuss the key events that led to the decline in US influence in the Middle East.
How does growing footprints of China and Russia in the Middle East affect India’s interests in the region?
(The author is an Associate Professor of Middle East studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views are personal. @MuddassirQuamar.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsnxUastCeM?si=Nu0mh-0om060ErkH&w=560&h=315
