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Journalism of Courage
— Mathew Joseph C.
(The Indian Express has launched a new series of articles for UPSC aspirants written by seasoned writers and erudite scholars on issues and concepts spanning History, Polity, International Relations, Art, Culture and Heritage, Environment, Geography, Science and Technology, and so on. Read and reflect with subject experts and boost your chance of cracking the much-coveted UPSC CSE. In the following article, Mathew Joseph C., an expert on South Asia, delves into China’s aggressive behaviour and the significance of India’s proactive ‘Act East’ policy for other countries in the region.)
The disputes revolving around the South China Sea are major factors in challenging peace and tranquillity in the Indo-Pacific region. The aggressive behaviour of China in advancing its claims over the South China Sea has created tensions between China and the rest of the countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. The Chinese efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea and establish military bases there have not gone well with the countries in the region.
The significance of the South China Sea as far as international trade is concerned is an established fact. It is a major shipping route that connects the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. According to statistics, around 22 per cent of the total global trade and around 60 per cent of global maritime trade pass through the South China Sea. The South China Sea is also known for fishing and related activities. The presence of oil and natural gas on the sea bed also makes it economically and strategically very important.
As per the Chinese narrative, the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea belong to China. For that, it cites historical records too. The Chinese claims on these islands are challenged by Vietnam. According to Vietnam, since the 17th century, these islands have been under Vietnam’s control. The opposing positions regarding the Paracel and Spratly islands between China and Vietnam have many a time led to confrontations and still remains a potential cause of conflict.
The Spratly islands also figure in the dispute between China and the Philippines. This is apart from the dispute between China and the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal which is closer to Manila in the South China Sea. Malaysia also has disputes with China regarding some of the islands in the Spratly islands.
In this multi-layered conflict in the South China Sea, one can see China on the one side and other countries on the other side. The root cause of the conflicts related to the South China Sea is the aggressive behaviour of China. In order to balance China, the other countries in the region need the support of outside powers. The pro-active ‘Act East’ policy of India in these circumstances becomes important for the countries in the region. Apart from the US and Japan, India can also position itself as a counterweight to China in this region by actively pursuing the ‘Act East’ policy.
The BrahMos Missile deal between India and the Philippines signed in 2022 must be viewed in this context. As per the 375 million dollar deal, India will provide an adequate number of BrahMos Missiles to the Philippines to beef up its security in the context of the increasing threat from China in the South China Sea. The first batch of the missiles has already been delivered in April this year. This deal is a major step in India’s strategic outreach to the South East Asia region and Indo-Pacific.
The recent political developments in Bangladesh that resulted in the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her regime may affect the ‘Act East’ policy of India. Bangladesh occupies a significant part in the operationalization of the ‘Act East’ policy. A not-so-friendly dispensation towards India in Bangladesh can create many hurdles in the realisation of the goals of the ‘Act East’ policy.
The developments in Bangladesh may also impact the functioning of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). As of now, there is no clear indication regarding the direction of the new dispensation in Bangladesh.
Under the ‘Act East’ policy, India strengthened its engagements with South Korea and Japan. These countries are also having interests and concerns in the Indo-Pacific region. They are also definitely concerned about the rise of China as well as its aggressive behaviour in their neighbourhood. Over the years, India and these countries came closer strategically due to their common apprehensions about China as well as other issues at the regional and international levels.
Between Japan and India, a 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue is in place from 2018. The trilateral dialogue between the US, Japan and India has been elevated to the ministerial level now. Also, India became active in the quadrilateral dialogue (Quad) involving the US, Japan and Australia. In addition, India’s relations with South Korea have developed considerably since the launch of the ‘Look East’ policy. The foreign ministers, defence ministers and national security advisors of the two countries now meet regularly to discuss strategic and security issues.
Overall, India has made a successful transition of its policy towards Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific over the years. When India initiated its ‘Look East’ policy in 1992, the world was experiencing tumultuous developments due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. It was a time of many uncertainties, but India navigated them effectively and transformed its ‘Look East’ policy into the more proactive ‘Act East’ policy in 2014. In the last ten years, India has been able to expand its footprints in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, and become part of the evolving security architecture in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Around 60 per cent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea. How can India employ a nuanced approach to tackle the threat posed by South China Sea tensions to the global maritime trade?
India’s proactive Act East policy enables it to position itself as a counterweight to China in the region. Evaluate.
Discuss the prospects for India to successfully navigate the uncertainties caused by the political developments in Bangladesh.
(Mathew Joseph C. is a Professor at the MMAJ Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi)
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