The 2024 US Presidential Election: A story of swing states

This year, the swing states are Pennsylvania (19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada (6 votes.) If voting patters remain consistent, Democrats can expect 226 votes from ‘blue wall’ states, while Republicans can expect  219. In order for a candidate to win the election, they must meet the 270 vote threshold by securing a number of key swing states. Trump has won, North Carolina and Georgia already, the ballots for other states are still being counted.

This oversized importance is represented in both campaigning and policy formulation. Most campaigns end with a single blockbuster rally but Kamala Harris opted for a different strategy. The Democrats rounded off the campaign with at least one banner event in each of the seven swing states. But instead of being held in sequence, the rallies were to be conducted simultaneously, all as mini festivals featuring multiple speakers and musical acts. Harris and her Vice-Presidential nominee, Tim Waltz, each attended two separate rallies. Over the last week, Donald Trump visited every one of the swing states for a different rally each night.

This outsized representation has been consistent across elections. During the 2016 election that Trump won, he visited Texas only one time. His opponent, Hillary Clinton didn’t go to California even once. The logic goes that these states are always going to vote along party lines, so it makes no sense for either candidate to waste time and resources campaigning there. In contrast, Florida, a crucial swing state at the time, was visited by Clinton 35 times and Trump, 36. While in office, parties are also expected to appeal to swing state voters, making their issues seem more important. Politicians have consistently spoken about, and passed legislation on issues that concern them, such as unions in Pennsylvania and manufacturing in Ohio.

A history of the Swing States

The term ‘swing state’ first appeared in the New York Times in 1936 when the incumbent Democrat president Franklin Roosevelt won against Republican Alf Landon. “Each believes he has won by swing through the most doubtful states,” said the caption of the cartoon representing the election.

But the concept of swing states really started emerging in the wake of the civil war in the 1860s. “After the civil war, elections started to become ever more nationalised and candidate-centred and a wide array of states swung between competitiveness and solid partisanship,” writes political scientists David Schultz and Rafael Jacob in their book, ‘Presidential swing states’. They add that between 1896 and 1944, 15 states were most competitive in most of the elections. “It was during this period that presidential candidates and their personal campaign visits began to displace the activities of state and local party organisations engaging voters,” they write. Worth noting is the fact that it is only from the 1890s that presidential candidates began to leave their home states to address rallies in other states. The shift from party centred campaigns to ones centering around the candidate was instrumental in ensuring that states swung loyalties between different parties.

The specific states that swing have also not always been consistent. A change in demographics, migration from rural to urban areas, and shifting ideologies have determined which state can be called a swing state. “Take Iowa and Ohio, which went from uber-competitive states to near blowouts for President Trump in 2016. Or Maine and Michigan, which hadn’t been all that competitive in 2008 or 2012, but lurched to the right in 2016,” write Elena Mejia and Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight in their data report, ‘Is the electoral map changing’.

There are two main reasons why a state may become a key battleground, namely – shifting ground locally and nationally. On a local level, changes in demographics can alter the political composition of a state. For example, during the Pandemic, masses of people from other states moved to Florida, according to polling data, most tended to be Republican. Other examples of local changes can be increases or decreases in groups that typically vote in a consistent manner. If a state sees an influx or growth of black voters, a key demographic for the Democrats, the blue party is more likely to see electoral gains.

Then you have national trends wherein voting blocs shift their allegiances over time.  For decades, West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state. However, as the party adopted environmentally conscious legislation and Republicans became advocates of fossil fuels, loyalties amongst coal mining communities began to shift. Now West Virginia, with its significant number coal mining towns, votes Republican, more often than not.

The history of America holds several examples of swing states determining the victory of a presidential candidate. In 1948, Democrat Harry S. Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey by winning by a margin of less than one percent of the popular vote in the then swing states of Ohio, California, Indiana, Illinois and New York. In 2000, the presidential race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Albert Arnold Gore came down to who won the 25 electoral votes at Florida. In 2016, Donald Trump managed to win the electoral vote as he emerged victorious in six out of the 10 most competitive swing states. In 2020, Biden won six out of the seven current swing states, losing only North Carolina on his road to the presidency.

While the battleground states are still too early to call, here’s what we know about them, and where they stand. The list will be updated as the situation develops.

Arizona 

Arizona is a difficult state to call. Since 1952, it has voted Republican on all but two occasions. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 and Biden, in 2020.

While the economy is a key issue across all 50 states, immigration comes a close second. For Arizona, which shares a southern border with Mexico, immigration is particularly important. Here once again, local and national trends come into play. Locally, Arizona’s non-white population has increased, drawing in young Latino voters who tend to swing Democratic. On the other hand, over time, older first generation Latino voters tend to be more conservative than people expect. Socially, and on matters like immigration, they have shifted towards the Republicans over the last few decades.

These combination of push and pull factors makes Arizona a key swing state in the 2024 election.

Poll tracking platform FiveThirtyEight shows Trump leading in the state by 2.1 percentage points going into Election Day. However, this advantage—like in all swing states this year—remains within the polls’ margin of error. Republicans make up a larger share of registered voters in the state, at 34.7 per cent, compared to 30.5 per cent for Democrats. In 2020, Biden won the state by a razor thin margin.

Michigan

 Formerly part of the New France colony, the region that is now part of Michigan came under the British rule in 1762. It joined the union in 1837 and voted consistently for the Republicans till the Great Depression of the 1930s. Well known for its industrial base, Michigan suffered signficantly during the Great Depression, but recovered in the post World War II years. Through the 1930s to the 1960s Michigan alternated between Republicans and Democrats, before once again becoming strongly Republican from the early 1970s to the end of 1980s. From 1988, Michigan voted for a Democrats in every presidential election, before it flipped towards Donald Trump in 2016, although by a very narrow margin of less than one percentage point.

Trump’s victory was largely attributed to his appeal amongst working class voters and a low turn out amongst black voters and millennials. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 2.7 percentage points – a far closer margin than expected.

This year, one of the biggest issues for the state is the conflict in Gaza. Michigan, with the largest population of Arab Americans in the country, is acutely affected by Washington’s Middle East policy, and increasingly dissatisfied by Biden’s, and by extension, Harris’ unequivocable support for Israel. Arab Americans in Michagin have reported that they might not vote in this election, vote for a third party or vote for Trump, who is also pro-Israel but is seen as someone who can get things done.

Pennsylvania

One of the 13 original founding states of the USA, Pennsylvania was the second state to ratify the U89S Constitution. The historical significance of the state is also derived from the fact that the Constitution of America was drafted here. Prior to Trump winning the state in 2016, Pennsylvania voted for Democrats in six consecutive elections.

Like most other states, Pennsylvania’s rural areas tend to be more conservation and vote for the Republicans, while cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are strong blue. However, in recent years, the traditionally Democrat supporting regions of southwestern Pennsylvania has deflected towards the Republicans.

Popularly known as the keystone state, Pennsylvania is being projected as the most crucial one in the current election. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes place it in a tie with Illinois for the fifth-highest count among all states. With 10 of the past 12 presidential election victors also winning Pennsylvania, the state could serve as a strong indicator of the race’s final outcome. According to election analyst Nate Silver, whichever candidate secures Pennsylvania has over a 90 per cent likelihood of winning the presidency.

Wisconsin

Located in the North-Central region of the United States, Wisconsin in the 19th and 20th centuries attracted a large number of immigrants from Europe, particularly from Germany and Scandinavia. Just like its neighbouring state, Minnesota, it is a strong hub for German-American and Scandinavian-American culture. It is also well-known for being the country’s largest dairy producers.

The state remained strongly Republican until the period of the Great Depression and World War II. Yet again from the mid 1940s to 1984, it returned in favour of the Republicans. However, from 1984 till 2016, it turned into a Democrat leaning state. In yet another major deflection, Trump won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin or 0.7 percent, even though opinion polls conducted ahead of the elections predicted otherwise. In 2020, Wisconsin was again nail bitingly close. Biden won the state by just 1.4 percentage points, a margin of only 20,000 votes.

Both campaigns are focused on Wisconsin, though it holds particular significance for the Democrats as they work to maintain the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that helped Biden secure victory over Trump four years ago.

North Carolina – Donald Trump 

One of the original 13 states to form the US, North Carolina had declared secession from the union in 1861 and join the Confederates. Like most southern states, North Carolina consistently voted for Democrats from 1876 to 1964. From 1968, the state voted Republican. According to the website, 270towin, “The initial shift was largely in response to white conservative voter uneasiness with the civil rights legislation passed in the mid-1960s, which was effectively exploited by the Republicans “southern strategy.”

The state of North Carolina is sharply split between cities with large populations of moderate professionals, Black voters and college students, and big stretches of the state that are more rural and conservative.

It swung towards Obama in 2008 when he won 79.23 percent votes. However, in 2016, the state was won by Trump with 51.2 percent votes. Analysts say the urban and rural areas of the state vote for Democrat and Republicans respectively, and that a low turnout among Black voters in 2016 could have affected its right wards move. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina again, making it the only one of the seven swing states to vote Republican in the last election.

Georgia – Donald Trump

Georgia, one of the original 13 colonies, is steeped in political history. Traditionally a Republican stronghold, the state surprised many by flipping blue in 2020, where Biden narrowly won with a margin of just 0.2 percentage points. This marked the first Democratic presidential victory in Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992, largely attributed to high Black voter turnout and mobilization efforts led by figures like Stacey Abrams.

The state has seen a wave of restrictive voting legislation since 2020, energising Democratic efforts to mobilize voters and counter potential disenfranchisement, especially among minority communities.

Additionally, Atlanta has long been the unofficial capital of the South, drawing residents from smaller towns across the Southeast seeking job opportunities in a larger city. Over the past two decades, Georgia has seen an influx of newcomers from traditionally liberal states like California. The expanding film industry has also brought numerous professionals who have made Georgia their permanent home. This shift has influenced the state’s voting patterns. Moreover, Atlanta’s population is becoming younger and more diverse—factors that have gradually weakened the Republican stronghold in Georgia.

Healthcare has emerged as a key issue for both campaigns. In 2019, Georgia passed one of the nation’s strictest abortion laws, banning the procedure after approximately six weeks. This law was set to take effect if Roe v. Wade was overturned, which happened in June 2022. Harris has highlighted this 2019 law, emphasizing the risks of restricted abortion access. Meanwhile, Trump has focused on culture-war issues in healthcare, airing claims that Harris would fund gender reassignment surgeries for convicted criminals if elected.

Nevada

Nevada, admitted to the union in 1864, is notable for its rapid population growth and diverse electorate. Historically, the state has leaned Democratic in recent elections, with both Obama and Biden winning Nevada by slim margins. Biden’s 2020 victory in Nevada by 2.4 percentage points reflected strong support in Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas and holds the majority of the state’s population.