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Journalism of Courage
So Round One has gone to Maharashtra’s strongman Sharad Govindrao Pawar, with the high-level committee of his Nationalist Congress Party unanimously rejecting his resignation as party chief — and Pawar agreeing to stay on.
The party, including his nephew Ajit Pawar, endorsed his leadership in what became a referendum on his authority. No one in the party was prepared — neither Praful Patel nor Chhagan Bhujbal nor Jayant Patil, not even his daughter Supriya Sule — to step into his huge shoes as the party’s national president.
The drama of the last few days — choked voices, flowing tears, angry diatribe, dharnas and protests, a spate of resignations right up to the district level, would put the best of Bollywood actors in the shade – has, for the moment, reined in Ajit Pawar.
He was not at the press conference addressed by Sharad Pawar where he withdrew his resignation. The party has promised to revitalize the Maharashtra unit of the NCP — a sop to Ajit Pawar that he may be given a say in its affairs. of the state party.
Ajit Pawar was the only one who openly and publicly spoke in favour of accepting Pawar’s resignation — that given his age and health, his wish to step down should be respected by the party.
Things came to a head a few weeks ago with signs of the Enforcement Directorate closing in on Ajit Pawar. It has been an open secret that Ajit Pawar was contemplating joining the BJP government in Maharashtra, with a section of NCP MLAs willing to move with him, the buzz being that he had been offered CMship by the BJP brass. Several leaders tried to convince Sharad Pawar that the best interest of the party lay in supporting the BJP. He is believed to have told them that each leader could do what they felt was best for them but he was in no mood to go anywhere.
In his revised memoirs, recently released, Pawar had criticised Uddhav Thackeray for walking away “without putting up a fight”, resigning as CM, which brought down the MVA government in Maharashtra and ignoring the discontent brewing in the Shiv Sena.
There was an essential difference between the Thackeray resignation and the Pawar declaration of departure from the party leadership, even though in both cases, the BJP was eyeing the two regional parties — it broke the Shiv Sena and was angling for the support of the NCP.
Unlike Thackeray’s resignation, Sharad Pawar’s resignation represented a fightback by the pragmatic Maratha faced as he is with formidable challenges that confront him and his party.
With his resignation, Pawar used both carrot and stick to rally the NCP family to his side. He played on the sense of loyalty the NCP cadre has for their mentor, a mass leader in public life for 63 years and The Leader Marathas (33%) look up to today.
While many NCP MLAs fear the ED’s knock, they also don’t want to risk Pawar’s displeasure. They have their political future to safeguard and there are too many examples of Pawar damaging careers when crossed. Remember Suresh Kalmadi.
Clearly, even if Ajit Pawar were to walk to the BJP, the sympathy of the NCP worker — and supporters — is likely to be more with the senior Pawar. Ajit Pawar is a man of the organization, hard working, and many MLAs owe their loyalty to him. But pitted against his uncle, where he will stand is anyone’s guess.
Hypothetically, what if Sharad Pawar were to take on Ajit Pawar and the rebels? What will happen when the 83-year-old cancer survivor who works round the clock for his party, starts to speak of the betrayal of the very people whose political careers he built?
Sharad Pawar could acquire victimhood and sympathy that is also coming Uddhav Thackeray’s — and consequently the MVA’s way today — and this could become, in the language of these times, a “double-engine.”
It was because of this sympathy that the Congress could wrest Kasba Peth in Pune held by the BJP for three decades. The MVA tally in the recent elections to the APMC elections was double what the BJP and Eknath Shinde group mopped up — straws in the wind the BJP can ill-afford to ignore. It’s the potential for ground shifts that a revalidated Pawar represents which could worry the BJP.
All eyes are on the Supreme Court judgment in the disqualification case of 16 Shiv Sena MLAs, including Eknath Shinde expected in a few days. Even with the disqualification of the MLAs, the government will have a razor-thin majority. But the BJP’s eyes are more on 2024.
The Shinde group, having toppled the MVA government, appears to have outlived its value, given the support building up for Uddhav Thackeray. But Ajit Pawar — as opposed to the “NCP plus Pawar” combination, which is what the BJP brass wanted — may also not bring the BJP the electoral strength it is looking for, if Sharad Pawar starts to generate sympathy. As it is, Ajit Pawar, another non-BJP leader heading a BJP- dominant government in Mumbai, will create its own problems inside the saffron party.
Sharad Pawar is a maestro at multi-messaging and having many a card up his sleeve. His critical references to Uddhav Thackeray in his memoirs — that he did not manage the government effectively during Covid — and to the Congress may be a signal to Narendra Modi, though he has other more reliable ways to send messages, like his links in the corporate world which he can use.
Will the BJP government decide to pull back on its use of Central agencies against NCP leaders, in the hope of garnering future support from the NCP come 2024?
For the moment, a reconfigured Sharad Pawar, is also being viewed with renewed respect by the Shiv Sena and the Congress, his allies in the MVA in Maharashtra, as a master-strategist who can turn the tables on his opponents. He has also been complimented by other Opposition leaders beyond Maharashtra. If there is someone who can reach out to every non-BJP party, and become the sutradhar of Opposition unity, it is Sharad Pawar.
The NCP patriarch has laid out his complex chess board. How the game will progress depends on a host of imponderables, including his opponent’s counter moves. For the moment, though, Sharad Pawar has bought time to fight another day.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections)
