As Rahul Yatra enters Gujarat today, a battered Congress awaits him

The biggest blow to the Congress was losing Modhwadia, a three-time MLA from Porbandar, who has served as Leader of the Opposition in the Gujarat Assembly as well as the party’s state chief. He joined the BJP a day after quitting, accompanied by his follower and former Congress Rajula MLA Ambarish Der as well as PCC working president Mulu Kandoriya.

On Wednesday, the eve of the arrival of Rahul’s Yatra, the Congress MLA from Manavadar, Arvind Ladani, quit – becoming the fourth sitting legislator to leave the party since the 2022 Assembly elections, reducing the party in the Assembly to 13.

The departures seemed synchronised with the Yatra, as seen in other states where Rahul has passed through, and further diminish the Congress’s chances of making any impact in the coming Lok Sabha polls. The BJP has won all the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat the past two elections.

Modhwadia and Ladani were the Congress’s last few remaining bright spots in the Saurashtra-Kutch region, which comprises 54 of the state’s 182 Assembly seats, and 7 of its 26 Lok Sabha constituencies. Now the only leader of import for the party in the area is Somnath MLA Vimal Chudasama.

The departures come at a time when the Congress is still to recover from the 2022 Assembly results, which saw its worst-ever performance in a state that it dominated till 1995. The bypolls to the seats which are vacant after four defections from the Congress and 1 from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) could be held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha elections, and it would be difficult for them to hold on to the constituencies.

The Congress’s declining numbers are also reflected in the party’s falling Rajya Sabha strength from Gujarat. It lost both the seats that fell vacant recently, leaving its PCC chief Shaktisinh Gohil as the only MP from Gujarat in the Upper House.

Before this fresh round of desertions, big Congress names like Kunvarji Bavaliya, Raghavji Patel, Jasa Barad, Narhari Amin and Balvantsinh Rajput had left for the BJP, with Bavaliya and Patel now ministers in the state government.

Rahul is spending about three days in Gujarat, entering through Jhalod in Dahod district on Thursday evening, and travelling about 400 km up to Songadh, before entering Nandurbar in Maharashtra on March 10. Along the way, the Yatra will cover the urban parts of Panchmahal, including Godhra and Kalol, the tribal district of Chhota Udepur, as well as Rajpipla, Netrang, Mandvi and Bardoli.

Asked if Saurashtra didn’t deliberately feature in the route because of the party’s crumbling cadre there, a senior party leader said, “It is not possible for the Yatra to cover the entire state of Gujarat. This leg of Nyay Yatra is mainly for the tribal belt in most states, because it is talking about social justice and constitutional rights of the people. Before the Lok Sabha polls, our senior party leaders will campaign across the state and Rahulji may visit again specifically for the same.”

In the first leg of his Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress president had drawn much flak for skipping Gujarat, despite the march coinciding with the 2022 Assembly elections in the state.

In Gujarat, preparations for the Yatra are being overseen by senior Congress leaders such as Gohil, Mukul Wasnik, Jagdish Thakor and Madhusudan Mistry. Party workers have been asked to ensure that the morale doesn’t show a dip despite the defections. A senior leader said, “The workers are enthused and are working hard to ensure that maximum people get an opportunity to interact with Rahulji.”

However, the cloud of defections isn’t easy to dismiss. Party leaders note that just a day before he resigned from the party, Modhwadia was himself in Godhra with Gohil, as part of preparations for the Yatra.

Lalit Vasoya, a former Congress MLA from Dhoraji seat in Rajkot and one of the prominent faces of the party in Saurashtra, admits: “Arjunbhai was a senior leader of our party, and his desertion has created a void.”

On the BJP welcoming Congress leaders with open arms, its state vice-president Bharat Boghra says: “It is not like that we need leaders and workers from other parties. But if some leaders are disappointed with their own party and want to align with our ideology and style of functioning to make India a developed country, we can’t turn them down.”

On whether the new leaders will fit into the BJP structure, Boghra says: “In the BJP, the party organisation is important and it functions like a family. Once someone joins the BJP, they become a part of the family and start working accordingly.”

He goes on to name several Congress leaders who are now in the BJP, including those who joined ahead of the 2017 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress has also lost control of most of the local bodies and cooperative bodies in the state over the last 10 years.

Vasoya admits that with the Congress out of power now for three decades, it is difficult to hold the party together.

Power matters for a political party, he says. “One may talk about principles while contesting elections, as doing so makes a party seem virtuous. But those in politics eventually seek power… Unless the public rejects those who change political ideologies, party-hopping is going to continue.”

On the road ahead, Vasoya hopes that the exit of senior leaders can open doors for Congress workers waiting in the wings. “Because the Congress does not follow the principle of not repeating a candidate, the same leaders in our party kept fighting elections from one constituency for years on end. For example, Modhwadia was Congress candidate from the Porbandar Assembly seat for five elections, over 25 years. He won three and lost two. Now that he has moved to the BJP, Porbandar Congress president Ram Odedra can start emerging as the leader of the area.”

Vasoya’s optimism goes further. “The young and strong leaders who emerge from the Congress can take on those who have changed sides. This will nullify issues like Ram Temple in the Assembly polls,” he claims.

About the Congress’s abysmal 2022 Assembly performance, Vasoya blames the AAP, pointing to their respective vote shares. While the BJP got 53.33% of the total votes, the Congress and AAP together won nearly 40%.

Incidentally, the two parties, who are partners in the INDIA alliance, have reached an agreement for Gujarat, as part of which the AAP will contest two Lok Sabha seats. The AAP is also planning to join Rahul’s Yatra in Gujarat.