As Delhi votes today, why BJP has a lot riding on capital contest

Delhi, understandably, is a make-or-break battle for Kejriwal’s AAP. But for the BJP, now on a surer footing after its victories in Haryana and Maharashtra, it is hardly so pivotal as Delhi, at the end of the day, is only half a state. As it is, the Lieutenant-Governor calls the shots in the capital and his powers relate to police, law and order, and land. Then, why are the stakes so high for the BJP in Delhi, for it to pull out all stops?

What is at stake

Some answers are obvious. As the capital, Delhi attracts the attention of the nation and the world, disproportionate to its size. It is located in the heart of India, with its ripple effects felt in the states around: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh, and even far-away Bihar from where people have come in large numbers as Purvanchalis who add up to an estimated one-third of Delhi’s voters and influence opinion back home.

Delhi is synonymous with urban governance today and Kejriwal has put out his own ”Delhi model” of development as opposed to that of the BJP. This time, cleaning the Yamuna and the right of Delhiites to get potable, (free) drinking water have become central issues and a cause for a vicious slugfest between the two parties. But Delhi also fashions the politics of the Hindi heartland. It is here that the BJP has the highest stakes and from where it draws its strength and ability to control the country.

Starting with the middle class in Delhi, the BJP may also hope to retain middle-class support across India in a battle of perception it has mounted with tax reliefs in the Budget. It is likely to benefit about 2 crore people nationally and the BJP hopes it will pay political dividends.

After the setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party regained its earlier confidence with the wins in Haryana and Maharashtra. And yet, after remaining out of power for over a quarter of a century, if it is not able to wrest “little” Delhi from a “disruptor” such as Kejriwal, that will send its own message.

Even though Rahul Gandhi has sharply, and personally, attacked Kejriwal, the AAP’s victory in Delhi is likely to give a boost to Opposition politics, more so if Kejriwal manages to become CM for the fourth time. All along, the BJP has been wary of Kejriwal and views him as a threat in the future, beyond Delhi and Punjab.

With every successive election, we have seen that as the stakes become higher, the poll rhetoric touches a new low. The last few weeks have seen signs of a kind of politics with little space for nuance or the possibility of sharp criticism going along with decorum.

Kejriwal accused the Haryana government of hatching a conspiracy to poison the people of Delhi after the sudden and abnormal rise of ammonia levels in the Yamuna and the BJP replied in kind. Though Sonia Gandhi’s remarks about President Droupadi Murmu, referring to her as a “poor thing”, were not directly linked to the elections — and could be seen, at worst, as condescending because they referred to a constitutional figure — the BJP’s response went over the top. It decoded the words literally to mean “gareeb cheez”, a supposedly derogatory reference to a tribal woman president.

What to watch out for

What then is likely to be the possible outcome of Delhi’s Mahabharat on Wednesday? It will depend on how the middle class and aspirational middle class look at their future in the city. Women’s support contributed significantly to Kejriwal’s runaway success both in 2015 and 2020 but to what extent will middle-class women voters now shift to the BJP?

Much will also depend on the extent to which the Congress, which does not seem to be in the reckoning in most seats, revives (its vote share was 4.63% in 2020 in the seats it contested). Whether the party dents the AAP’s support among Muslims and Dalits, thereby helping the BJP, will be among the things to watch out for.

And finally, will people buy the BJP’s argument of a “double engine” government enabling a greater allocation of funds than under an AAP government? The AAP then may be denied money for its programmes, though by that logic no non-BJP government should rule in the states as long as the BJP is in power at the Centre. This, it goes without saying, raises serious questions about the federal principles undergirding our democratic set-up. Or will this formulation create sympathy for Kejriwal? This may depend on where you live in Delhi — a jhuggi-jhopri slum or a gated colony.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)